Patrick Mazza

The strongest El Niño in 150 years? Yes, it’s legitimately possible. Not hype. In fact, the “median” forecast for December of all of our computer models combined is slightly “above” the biggest event we know of back in 1877. (+2.9 vs +2.7 using ONI) While this peak intensity may or may not occur, all signs are pointing to a Super El Niño - a “natural” oscillation. That will expel stored heat from the deep Tropical Pacific - on top of significant longterm warming - heating Earth to record levels not measured before in late 2026-2027, powering extreme heat waves, droughts, and rain storms… while also suppressing Atlantic hurricane season 1/ #ElNino #extremeweather #science

We just observed the highest Equatorial Pacific oceanic heat content for *any* month since 1997 and the highest for April in the entire satellite era. If it wasn’t clear to you before that we were headed for a “Super” El Niño later this year, hopefully it is now.

@volcaholic1 Luckily the pyroclastic flow stopped a little short of where they were.

The Gary Rosenquist Sequence.... In May 1980, Gary Rosenquist and his companions arrived at a location near Mount St. Helens, where they camped overnight. The following morning, they witnessed the eruption of Mount St. Helens. Gary Rosenquist captured a series of 21 photographs during the eruption, which have become historically significant. These images have been transformed into a continuous video using AI software and pixel processing algorithms.

@ryankatzrosene This study says we are underestimating risks from jet stream-induced failures. nature.com/articles/s4146…. I think the key issue is we have not yet fully understand jet stream impacts from Arctic ice loss, or the rate of loss. Conflict is indeed causing a very short term crisis.

There’s indeed evidence the likelihood/incidence of multiple breadbasket failure increases with warming… but I don’t see why the risk of this would scale exponentially over the next 25 years compared to the last 25 years. It’s possible, but over this short time frame a greater threat to such agricultural disruption imho would be human conflict/ energy crises. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that this👇 - a societal collapse brought about by a collapse of global harvests before 2050 - is a deeply unlikely outcome. Look, I'm the first to call climate change an alarming problem for society. And, I live on a farm: Increases in agricultural drought and extreme rainfall - both of which have been observed in most regions of the world, and both of which are projected to increase due to global warming - are real and they suck and can seriously hamper a given operation's agricultural output for a year or longer (or even an entire region's). BUT: Agricultural output and yields are mediated by several factors, natural and human. Climate change is hampering crop *productivity* in several contexts (for specific regions, and specific crops), but it is also *increasing* output for some regional, some specific crops, and specific development contexts. We also have (truly!) incredible innovations and adaptations as a species when it comes to food production and distribution. And, thanks to global markets and substitutability (greater for some foods than others), and a somewhat existing (though admittedly highly dysfunctional and swiftly degrading) global development aparatus, humanity has shown that it can 'weather' - to an extent - agricultural output disruptions... The main points of evidence are: a) global average crop yields for key staples (soybeans, rice, maize and wheat) have grown *dramatically* (like, we're talking hundreds of percent increases) over the last half Century, and are projected to continue growing (though yes, such growth may be partly or even fully negated by climate impacts in some cases); b) the percentage of humans that are undernourished is much lower in our contemporary era than it's been likely since the start of the Industrial Revolution - when there was chronic hunger globally. 1 of every 2 people globally back then were undernourished, and famines were common... but global population did not collapse, it *increased*. And famines have massively decreased. Yes, there has been some very concerning backsliding in recent years with undernourishment in Africa - but this is more a political economic challenge than a climatic one; c) the human population reached a peak growth rate 50 years ago. The UN's medium projection expects global population to peak in about 50-60 years, at just over 10 billion. But other demographic institutes argue the UN's medium projection is likely too high. Both IIASA and IHME, for instance, have medium projections seeing a peak closer to 9.5 billion, after which the global number of humans declines by 2100. d) Total agricultural productivity has grown tremendously (yes, with dire ecological and climatic consequences) for decades (nearly a 4X increase over the last half Century), and that is expected to continue growing. When you factor it all together, a *more likely* story - by mid-Century at least - is not one of collapse. It's one of more food per capita, and a (moderately) larger global population facing greater ecosystems disruption and increasing volatility from climate-related supply shocks. If collapse or famine comes in the next 25 years, it's more likely to be from a failure of global governance, conflict/warfare and associated economic upheaval than from climate-induced crop failures (unless AMOC collapses). I'm not saying Bill's scenario is impossible. And I think it's important to consider such worst case outcomes. Just saying it's less likely imho than the outcome I've laid out above. My two cents as someone who spends a lot of time thinking of this every day as part of my job.

@MichaelEMann “Donald Trump was the dumbest goddamn student I ever had!’” - William T. Kelley, University of Pennsylvania Wharton School.

And, with few exceptions, only does this with P.O.C.

@EarthDay @ChristopherNFox Denis also led creation of the Bullitt Center in Seattle, one of the greenest office buildings on Earth. For many years he headed Bullitt Foundation, which funded many innovative environmental groups including my own. He’s done a whole lot since Earth Day to fulfill its vision.

@EarthDay @ChristopherNFox Honored to call Denis Hayes a personal friend. He wryly says he’s mostly remembered for what he did when he was 20. But since he was Carter’s solar lead, founding what we now call the National Renewable Energy Lab and laying the groundwork for today’s solar revolution.

In 1970, Denis Hayes reached 20 million people. Now, he’s talking to you. 🌍 Earth Month is the launchpad—not the finish line. Help @EarthDay Network keep the momentum going every single day. 🚀 Donate today ➡️ earthday.org/donate/ #OurPowerOurPlanet #EarthDay2026

Former senior Biden advisor Amos Hochstein said during an interview on Sunday that the Biden administration had been preparing to bomb Iran if they had won re-election in 2024. Hochstein was asked by Face the Nation’s Margaret Brennan, “In July 2024 Secretary Blinken claimed Iran was one or two weeks away from having enough fissile material breakout capacity to eventually make a weapon if Iran had decided to do so. There were indirect negotiations that the Biden administration did, but it went nowhere. So when President Trump argues that he did what no other president would, is it just simply that the bill was coming due and it fell on his watch?” “I do think there’s a certain element to that, and that’s why I was supportive of President Trump joining in in June to take the strikes that we had thought internally in the Biden administration, we may have to take if there was a second term,” Hochstein replied. “We thought that the spring, summer of 2025 was probably, we may have to be there in the same place. And we did, we did war games. We did some practice runs on what it would look like to look into it, because that may have had to happen under our watch as well.” Hochstein, for the record, is an Israel-born IDF veteran who reportedly played a major role in the Biden administration encouraging Israel’s horrific bombardment of Lebanon in September 2024. And his narrative that an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities “may have had to happen” under a theoretical second Biden term is false. In March of last year, US intelligence chief Tulsi Gabbard testified before Congress that the intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and supreme leader Khomeini [sic] has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003,” contradicting both the claims of President Trump and of Antony Blinken the year before. But even if you accept that Iran was a nuclear risk, there was nothing stopping the Biden administration from simply restarting the nuclear deal that the Obama administration secured with Tehran in 2015. The JCPOA was working fine while it was in place; anyone who says otherwise is a lying warmonger. Trump and his handlers torched the JCPOA in 2018 because it was the primary obstacle preventing them from getting to war with Iran, and the Biden administration refused to reverse this move because they wanted war too. The Democrats were beating the drums of war for Iran well ahead of the 2024 election. Here’s an excerpt from the official 2024 Democratic Party platform explicitly attacking Trump for not going to war with Iran in his first term: “All of this stands in sharp contrast to Trump’s fecklessness and weakness in the face of Iranian aggression during his presidency. In 2018, when Iranian-backed militias repeatedly attacked the U.S. consulate in Basra, Iraq Trump’s only response was to close our diplomatic facility. In June 2019, when Iran shot down a U.S. surveillance aircraft operating in international airspace above the Straits of Hormuz, Trump responded by tweet and then abruptly called off any actual retaliation, causing confusion and concern among his own national security team. In September 2019, when Iranian-backed groups threatened global energy markets by attacking Saudi oil infrastructure, Trump failed to respond against Iran or its proxies. In January 2020, when Iran, for the first and only time in its history, directly launched ballistic missiles against U.S. troops in western Iraq, Trump mocked the resulting Traumatic Brain Injuries suffered by dozens of American servicemembers as mere ‘headaches’ — and again, took no action.” Kamala Harris, who controversially replaced the dementia-addled Biden as the Democratic candidate late in the race, labeled Iran the number one enemy of the United States. In their 2024 debate, Harris repeatedly slammed Trump for being too soft on America’s enemies and announced that she “will always give Israel the ability to defend itself, in particular as it relates to Iran and any threat that Iran and its proxies pose to Israel.” I’ve seen a lot of people trying to argue that Trump’s depravity in Iran proves everyone should support Democrats, but it’s clear the Democratic Party is just the more polite-looking face on the same evil power structure. The war with Iran was always planned. Analysts like Brian Berletic and Richard Medhurst have been laying out solid arguments that this American war is more about attacking the economic and energy interests of Russia and China in a last-ditch effort to retain planetary hegemony than it is about assisting Israel. This places the United States on a dangerous trajectory toward increasingly hostile escalations between nuclear-armed powers. These moves were planned years in advance, and would have been rolled out regardless of what impotent meat puppet happened to be wheeled into office in January 2025. You don’t get to vote out an empire. Whether or not the US will continue working to dominate the planet will never be on the ballot. We will continue seeing reckless US wars of immense human consequence until the empire falls, or until the American people bring the revolutionary change to their country that the world so desperately needs.

@VanJones68 Dead babies. Dead babies. Zionist tool.

It's been more than 45 days since Iran's internet went dark. And the Iranian regime is burning through MILLIONS per day to keep 92 million people offline. Why spend so much to silence your own country? Because when you control the internet, you control the story. When a government won't let its OWN PEOPLE speak, question the narrative the outside world is hearing.

@MichaelEMann Mein Kampf seems to be a perennial favorite according to his ex-wife.

This year's list: The Going to Bed Book The Potty Book for Boys Who Pooped on Me?

The Self-Undoing of Israel: Has Zionism Crossed the Point of No Return? by Ramzy Baroud @RamzyBaroud #Israel #Zionism original.antiwar.com/ramzy-baroud/2…

@IslanderWORLD @grok Is this real?

Man that is some laundry fire... USS Ford a $13 billion nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, retreated from the world’s most important naval theatre and sailed to Crete… because of a laundry fire. The IRGC had named it a target, tracked it and watched it leave and the official explanation from USN for that scorched, mangled hull is that someone forgot to clean the lint trap. Or just maybe... Ahem... It wasn't a laundry fire. The most expensive glorified battleship in human history, reduced to a charred museum of a bygone WWIII era.

CHS photojournalist Alex Garland has a new book — Home: Water of Western Washington dlvr.it/TRd9M7

@timand2037 Sailors sick of their record 11-month record deployment purposely throwing objects in the toilets to clog them. It’s a pootiny!

When the combined forces of Iran, China and Russia finally topple Washington's global dictatorship, it will be a fittingly humiliating end to see that clogged sewerage systems on bloated US warships played their part. indiatoday.in/world/story/us…

🚨NEW DATA: When a Democratic president joined with Republicans & corporate donors to pass NAFTA, it killed the working class - not just figuratively, but LITERALLY. NAFTA may be memory-holed - but it is the sliding-door moment that explains American politics today.

@HariSel57511397 Interesting to read after binge watching all 5 seasons of Babylon 5 with its gritty world of politics and class. Then I heard J. Michael Straczynski tell how Paramount stole his concept to make DS9 and kill B5. So it follows that DS9 would reflect a darker reality more like B5.

Benjamin Sisko is the darling of the Dissident Right, the based Captain who made all the edgy choices, and I’m going to explain why that was a bad thing. Well, thankfully it wasn’t bad for us. Sisko was in many ways the death knell of the Left’s high-minded principles. He was the first major character in Star Trek to substantially voice the power of the exception. And after that, Star Trek was philosophically finished. Now it’s very useful to think of values and morals as problem solving tools. They are ingrained compasses which are designed to optimally guide you through every situation you encounter in life. Of course, “optimally” does not need to mean the most materially well off. As most of us would agree, being a “good” person is more valuable or “optimal” than being rich. But what if these problem-solving tools are unable to solve the problem at hand? Not from an ignorance or a failure to apply the moral system, but rather a fundamental defect in the system itself? What happens when the tools you use no longer work? What happens when you are no longer able to reach the desired outcomes? You either have to compromise with a less than desirable outcome, or you make an exception. You step out of the framework in order to solve the problem. In other words, you make a moral compromise. Benjamin Sisko was Star Trek thinking it could get away with a moral compromise. But the problem with moral compromises is that you generally find yourself making more and more exceptions as time goes on. Sure, you say to yourself that it will be just this once, and maybe it is for a while, maybe a long time, but another situation will come along. And then you make another exception. The problem is that Star Trek had nowhere to go after Sisko’s blatant exceptions. It didn’t offer any alternative morality other than the naked use of power. After Sisko, there was no salvaging the utopia and keeping it internally consistent. The Federation owes its continued existence to a man who betrayed everything it stood for: of mutual understanding, peaceful negotiation, and violence as the last of all resorts. But it was more than that. Sisko’s betrayal was in such a way that it wasn’t clear that he had any other choice. In other words, it’s difficult to caricaturize his decisions as merely a character flaw but rather a greater systematic failure of his worldview. Sisko is the reactionary’s Captain not because he made the most ethical choices, but because he exposed the flaws underpinning the Left’s worldview. And once those flaws were laid bare for all to see, it was impossible to put the genie back in the bottle. Sure, we can continue like nothing had happened, and Star Trek did continue like nothing had happened, but it’s impossible to forget the problems that Star Trek had voiced against itself. And all the enemies of the Left needed to do was to repeat the Left’s own unanswered objections back to them.

@Jringo1508 Ideal medium for serialized shows. Just binge watched all 5 seasons on Babylon 5.

We don't have Netflix anymore or Cable. Since Miriam has to have something on, what do we watch? Tubi. Can you imagine the investor pitch for Tubi? "We're going to stream anything we can get out hands on no matter how old or obscure. Just as long as that shit's cheap." "Okay. But what's your revenue stream?" "We're going to offer companies that want to sell stuff to have short skits about their products. We call these 'commercial skits' or 'commercials.' They pay us for the time." "So... You're going to do syndication cable." "It worked the first time." "Will you have 'Murder She Wrote?'" "Probably too expensive. We're not sure we can get Xena but we're going to have Airwolf." "I'm in."

Bezos spent $250 million to buy the Washington Post. Bezos has a net worth of $250 *billion*. The Post was 0.1% of his net worth. He bought it and destroyed it. Abolish billionaires.

@pmagn For the most part that looks suspiciously like the cold blob already appearing in the North Atlantic due to thermohaline circulation slowing, what it might look like if it completely shut down. Colder temperatures in the north for sure, but a complete wreck globally.

Reliable predictions of how the Earth's climate will respond as atmospheric carbon dioxide levels increase are based on climate models. These models, in turn, are based on data from past geological times in which the CO2 content in the Earth's atmosphere changed in a similar way to today and the near future. team of researchers has now published a new North Atlantic temperature record from the past 16 million years. findings show that the North Atlantic was significantly colder than previously assumed based on earlier reconstructions #goog_rewarded" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">phys.org/news/2026-01-t…