Patrick Stoa, CFP®

@NickNemo17 @MrJulius007 @SKmacro Who made this chart? I assume ”risk” in this chart is not actual risk of loss, but price volatility. But, volatility is useless with mark to manager opinion. In other words, if a private credit fund made the chart, it is misleading.

@MrJulius007 @SKmacro

TLDR: I am a recovering alcoholic with no fund, no credentials, and no lobbyist. I rebuilt myself from nothing. Then I broke into finance with no degree, no pedigree, and no permission. I parsed SEC filings for a $31.5 billion private credit fund called Cliffwater. Not because anyone asked me to. Because nobody else would. The filings are public, but they are buried in footnotes that are not indexed, not searchable, and not structured for analysis. I have been told by fund managers that nobody even attempts this. Billions of dollars in pension capital, and the people who manage money for a living do not bother to read the filings. So I read them. Every loan. Every amendment. Every semi-annual PIK disclosure. 2,330 positions. I hand-researched fifty. I found 189 loans where borrowers are paying interest with more debt instead of cash. I found over 50 loans that are not generating enough cash to service their debt at all — carried at par on the books of a fund that has never reported a losing month in 41 months. The fund's Sharpe ratio is 3.75. Bernie Madoff — who was fabricating returns and could pick any number he wanted — ran a 3.5. He got caught because the numbers were too smooth by Markopolos. The greatest quant fund in history, Renaissance Technologies, runs a five or six. Cliffwater is claiming risk-adjusted returns that would be impossible even if you insider-traded with perfect information every single time, because the volatility of the underlying markets would still prevent it. Nobody asked questions. Bloomberg confirmed 14% redemptions 48 hours after I published. S&P cut the fund's outlook to negative this week. Cash on hand fell 76% in six months. This is not an isolated fund. This is the structure. $9.4 trillion in private equity. $3.5 trillion in private credit. They all pay their own valuation agents. The valuation agents decide what the funds are worth. No valuation agent has ever been fired for saying the number was too high. The marks produce the NAV. The NAV produces the fees. The fees come from pensions. The pensions come from firefighters and teachers and nurses in Oregon and California and Illinois who will never read a private placement memorandum in their lives. Wall Street ran out of rich people. The endowments were full. The sovereign wealth funds were tapped. So they went downstream — to 401(k)s, to retirement accounts, to interval funds sold to people who have no idea what they own. 1. Direct the SEC and FSOC to examine Level 3 fair value practices across interval funds and BDCs. 2. Require that valuation agents be independent of the funds they mark. 3. State publicly that the current self-marking regime creates systemic risk. 4. Mandate position-level mark disclosure for every fund that accepts pension capital. There are two ways this ends. It breaks all at once like 2008 and we fix it. Or it rots slowly like Japan: one fund blows up, six weeks of quiet, another one, and nobody connects it for a decade while a generation of retirees gets destroyed. I am not asking anyone to take my word for it. I am asking them to read the filings. If you know someone in the administration, a regulator, or anyone on a legislative committee, please send this to them. One person learned this from a one-bedroom apartment. Your government can too. The will is what is missing.

@GGunthorp Very common for pre-cooked sausages. Better shelf life due to no opportunity for bacteria etc to enter after cooking. But more in-line (looks like you are running individual tanks rather than a conveyor tank).

We built a thousand pound, USDA approved, sous vide tank at the farm. We cook for Disney, O Hare Airport, and Caesar’s Palace and others. I wrote the HACCP plan. We use stainless data loggers to monitor dwell time, lethality, and chilling/stabilization temperatures.

@MaryPovich @thechosenberg Bank embedded financial advisors typically have too many clients and essentially have to under serve many of them, but still charge full price.

@thechosenberg don't most banks give you a free one time consult with a financial advisor?

Whatever you do don’t move 124k based on Reddit comments lol

@bethanyjbabcock Among all the other things: Most counties in the US have a Veteran Service Office. Have her reach out to them to get a complete understanding of military benefits available to her and the family because of his service. There are so many overlooked benefits.

A friend of mine lost her husband recently. He managed most the finances and she is a bit overwhelmed with decisions and no one to talk through them with. She asked if she could come over and go through things with me. I’m not a personal finance or estate expert but happy to help her. What things should I know? Those that have lost a spouse what do you wish you had known in the months after regarding finances? For context: Her husband was retired military, passed away (possibly- results pending) due to an incident at his work as a civilian. They have 4 kids, 3 still at home and own their own home. She worked part time.

My coding experience is very light. Basic HTML and CSS edits, etc. This week, I had Co-Pilot create a couple of Excel Macros. Took 3-4 hours to get it right. Will save 15 minutes per week. Savings = 13 hours per year. AI is definitely going to improve productivity.

@ophatf1eld @mrjain It’s all about releasing the MVP (Minimally Viable Product). I think Simon Simonek coined that phrase. Release, Gather Feedback, Improve. And if nothing else, hope the RIA keeps paying even if they can’t (or shouldn’t) use this particular add-in.

@mrjain As an RIA, unfortunately you can’t even use this plugin because it doesn’t meet client privacy rules. Why would Anthropic release this knowing no real RIA can even use it? 🤦‍♂️

48 hours ago @claudeai released the Wealth Management plugin and of course I had to dig in and check it out. I've created a thread on how to use it and what are the inputs and outputs. I'm sharing all the PDFs involved. [1/12]

@the2ndfloorguy I mean it could just be a you problem. You could find this out. Find another 150 - 200 people to do it and we’ll see.

@darrelltalksfi Lower the price and get out. Or raise the rent. Or refinance the $700k at lower rates and keep hard money for the balance. Or get some equity in there somehow. That’s pretty much it right?

A buddy of mine is stuck. Bought a 6-unit to flip using hard money at 10%. Purchase price: $800k Renovations: $200k All-in: $1M Renovations took about a year. The market softened during that time. Listed at $1.25M 18 months ago. Now at $1.1M. Fully occupied. ~$8k/month in rent. Still losing ~$1,000/month because of the loan. Banks will only offer $700k. Not enough to refinance. He’s stressed and doesn’t know what to do. Any advice?

@Matt_Pinner Yes. $3.35

Have you ever made less than $6 an hour? 🤔

@N8RealEstate Get Heat Tape. Proper Installation is very important. youtu.be/9Hcc_LOj6Ag?si…

There’s a small crawlspace on the house I’m flipping right now How can I keep the pipes from freezing in Ohio? There’s baseboard heat, but I was thinking about just running a little red heat bulb down there Do I need to worry about this?

@hfelterbush69 @nocontextmemes Probably. It’s a thought experiment.

@PatrickStoa @nocontextmemes your whole argument assumes that the arbitrary 1/18,250 is even remotely accurate. the ocean is so vast and empty, it has to be lower than that

@JayTizzzl @nocontextmemes Presumably all near the shore, in mild weather.

@PatrickStoa @nocontextmemes Ive already swam in California ocean more times than that with zero problems

@Crypt0Ryan @nocontextmemes You are taking 1825 chances by playing the game. 1825 / 18,250 is 10%

@PatrickStoa @nocontextmemes How is 1 in 18,250 = 10% ?

@lady_valor_07 No junk drawer is complete without Taco Bell hot sauce packets.

starting a junk drawer. What else do I need?

@leevalueroach My daughter made a similar app in a high school coding class, and posted it on the Amazon App Store. I think it showed a picture of a diamond. Also $999. It got 1 sale.

In 2008, someone created the “I Am Rich” app for iPhones. The app did absolutely nothing and cost $999.99 Eight people bought the app before Apple shut it down within 24 hours of its launch. Basically the first NFY.

@HedgeDirty It’s probably the minerals.

I don't understand what the strategic importance of Greenland is supposed to be. If it's just air/missile bases for the arctic then shouldn't it be fine in any NATO hands? So I presume theres something else?

@NotGoKGreen So bizarre. A financial plan should have been started and agreed to during their onboarding meetings, and updated every year. I don’t even know how to advise without a plan.

It irritates me that my parents have a financial advisor who does nothing for them, collects a paycheck from them, and when it comes to this pivotal point in their life - RETIREMENT - it's straight silence

@StefanMolyneux @Libertymancer If you want a particular outcome, you have to over communicate. You didn’t, so therefore it’s your fault that he didn’t remember the first line of a two line post.

@Libertymancer You just destroyed the entire point of the post

Without looking it up, what did Scott say that was ‘racist’ - and in what context did he say it?

@alz_zyd_ I think it is because people are at home with their phone instead of socializing.

Maybe alcohol is declining because of a price discrimination doom loop - Cocktails are $17 - Too expensive, many people stop drinking - Remaining drinkers are degenerates willing to pay high prices - So restaurants raise cocktail prices to $19 - More people stop drinking...