Paul Nguyen

@SophiaSaifi @AnasMallick Hormuz and enriched uranium won’t be bridged, no matter how much diplomacy takes place. Especially when the IRGC is in control.

The Witkof Kushner cancellation is not the chest thumping tragic end to the talks that many are assuming. The Iranians were fairly explicit that these would be bilateral talks. They dont even like the two. There is intense diplomacy at play this weekend.

@JoeStonks Yup. Trump doesnt causally bring a subject. He mentioned the markets doing way better than he expected, with oil calm. Lots, lots of cushion.

No quick instant gratification here post Ceasefire headline pop But strikes should resume. I was originally crazy for calling the ceasefire but it 100% seems like Trump is going to light up their power plants. There’s enough cushion to do so in equity markets for it to happen.

@TedPillows Don’t need escalation. As long as there are no peace talks, no scheduled meetings, every passing day, oil is gonna keep grinding higher.

A whale has opened a $28,400,000 Oil long position. Is he expecting more US-Iran escalation?

@StealthQE4 Stocks flat, oil $105 at least.

Stocks will likely get drilled on Monday now that peace talks are cancelled 💀 Oil back to $100? WWS falling:

@CaitlinDoornbos Oh no …

@WarMonitor3 If anything, the public perception is Trump is trying. He got played. And Iran isn’t budging on nukes.

There is clearly no diplomatic resolution at the moment between Iran and the US, renewed strikes seem the next logical strike...

@FirstSquawk Lol! We can’t even agree to meet to negotiate. It’s so far gone. Pakistan remains the only willing party to negotiate 😭😭😭😭😭

White House hasn't told Pakistan date the US delegation will arrive - official Pakistani sources

@RZimmt Positions don’t change thru talks. Red lines don’t change thru negotiations. And the demands themselves amount to submission. It’s almost like there was no plan for a deal (considering the US attacked before the first attempt).

מה שאומר שהגיע הזמן, אחרי ימים של עיסוק אובססיבי בשאלה (המעניינת כשלעצמה) של הדינמיקה הפנימית בצמרת האיראנית (האם מוג'תבא מעביר הנחיות כתובות בעצמו או שמישהו כותב אותן עבורו, האם עראקצ'י מרוצה מכך שמפקד משמרות המהפכה מונע פשרות והאם קאליבאף התפטר מתפקידו כראש צוות המשא ומתן), להניח שבסופו של דבר הצמרת האיראנית גיבשה עמדה די ברורה לגבי התנאים לחזרה למו"מ, וכנראה גם לגבי המו"מ עצמו. לכן, השאלה החשובה יותר היא האם העמדה הזו צפויה להשתנות בתנאים הנוכחיים (אני בספק רב), ומה תידרש ארה"ב לעשות בהיעדר תזוזה בעמדה האיראנית, ובהתחשב בכך שלא ברור כלל שהמצור הימי יביא לתוצאות הרצויות במסגרת לוחות הזמנים שמציירים חלק מהפרשנים האופטימיים, הצופים קריסה כלכלית באיראן והפסקת שאיבת הנפט בתוך כשבועיים (כמה מיליוני חביות נפט הועמסו בנמלי איראן רק בימים האחרונים).

@CaitlinDoornbos It seem like the gap widen. We’re now talking about negotiating just to negotiate. Positions need to change, both sides need to concede, and I doubt they’ll do that by talking 🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️

I will say: Tehran's departure doesn't mean the talks will never happen — just that they aren't happening tonight. (Don't worry: I'm not going anywhere yet.) nypost.com/2026/04/25/us-…

@CaitlinDoornbos GG

The Iranian delegation in Pakistan is now leaving Islamabad without having met US officials, as they consistently claimed throughout the brief visit.

@JohnLoc18 You’re still in puts or calls?

Morning, waking up with some thoughts: Why in the world I bought and sized $150,000+ $SPY calls/puts back to those days without thinking throughly? And also mental health is improving past three weeks, it’s rough to start all over again but I won’t give up. I do this for my family not for my personal spending/flexing.

@HormuzLetter I’d imagine a country with satellites can accurately access intention with movements of military assets.

As a reminder: China today ordered its citizens to leave Iran "as soon as possible," warning of a "complex and volatile" situation. China issued the same warning on February 27, one day before the US and Israel started the war.

@s_m_marandi Maybe that’s why the demands were so outrageous. Equivalent to Iran surrendering. There was never a deal. That would blow my mind … depends, still need to see the follow thru.

In my opinion, the White House and US media are lying about direct negotiation plans between Iran and the Trump regime - so they can later dishonestly claim Iran broke its promises, helping "justify" further aggression to the American people. The Islamic Republic is prepared.

@Araghchhi We went from full concession to talks separately to hopefully produce joint talks. Lol!

U.S. and Iranian delegations will have separate meetings with Pakistani officials this weekend, a senior Pakistani government official said. If those meetings go well, the U.S. and Iranian delegations would then meet directly on Sunday, the official said.

It’s not confusing once you realize it’s Trump being told false information by Pakistan, echoed by Axio and Reuters. Iran’s message is consistent, rejecting every false claims. They even went as far as having their Supreme Leader posting about media lies and false reporting yesterday!

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Short summary of where things stand: Trump says Iran wants to talk, is ready to present an offer, and the U.S. is dealing with the people currently in charge. Iran says no talks are happening and Mojtaba Khamenei has forbidden negotiations. At this point the war of statements is more confusing than the actual war.

@FirstSquawk They need a talk to arrange a talk. Why is this even news …. 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

PAKISTANI OFFICIAL: MEETINGS WITH ARAGHCHI IN ISLAMABAD TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL FOCUS ON RELAUNCHING NEGOTIATIONS WITH TRUMP ADMINISTRATION – AXIOS

@s_m_marandi @javedhassan Crazy how oil goes down on the meeting but barely budge when it’s declined. Another slap in the face, embarrassing … 🤦🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️

The Iranian foreign minister will not hold any negotiations with the Trump regime in Islamabad and will merely convey Iran’s considerations and views regarding the end of the war to the Pakistani side. This meeting is a response to General Asim Munir’s trip to Tehran, and I have been informed that no negotiations with any Americans are planned during this visit.

@DeItaone Recent days? Yesterday they posted in unison defying any deal. Come on …. what is this lol

WHITE HOUSE: SEEN PROGRESS FROM IRANIAN SIDE IN RECENT DAYS

@FirstSquawk Bullshit! Lol

LEAVITT SAYS IRANIANS REACHED OUT, ASKED FOR IN-PERSON TALKS

@CaitlinDoornbos I’m hearing Iranians report they’re not going to talk unless conditions are met. This is so so confusing … 😵‍💫😵‍💫

Now that it's officially confirmed: US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will leave for Islamabad on Saturday.