Cato The Censor

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Cato The Censor

Cato The Censor

@Paul_AQRM

Macro trader looking for market asymmetries, fiat bear, FX Jedi. Solitary reserve USD delenda est. Believer in humanity, blocker of IYIs. Pacifist.

Milky Way Katılım Mayıs 2017
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Cato The Censor
Cato The Censor@Paul_AQRM·
This is a huge moment for macro and $ direction is at the epicentre. Get it right and the world is your oyster, get it wrong and your career/business is done.
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Cato The Censor
Cato The Censor@Paul_AQRM·
@zerohedge How is Brent, the smug Texan an expert on fertilizers? Let the guy figure out the dollar first, he's clearly struggling with his "theory".
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Cato The Censor
Cato The Censor@Paul_AQRM·
@Convertbond From predictable (and growing) free cashflow, low-debt, low-CAPEX cash cow to whatever this is.
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Lawrence McDonald
Lawrence McDonald@Convertbond·
Meta Debt Load - Zuck Levering Up 2026: $87B* 2022: $27B *Add $25B, **META LOOKS TO RAISE $25B IN BOND SALE - Bloomberg.
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Don Johnson
Don Johnson@DonMiami3·
We all know why the UAE left OPEC (swap lines from UST)
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Cato The Censor
Cato The Censor@Paul_AQRM·
@DonMiami3 The Treasury is doing buybacks, so effectively it's "YCC-light" already. The problem is the size, Treasury on its own can provide the marginal bid but can not consume the totality of rollovers + deficit-financing obviously. Fed will step up, SLRs will be revised, M2 will go up.
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Don Johnson
Don Johnson@DonMiami3·
10Y Yield... how long can Bessent hold it below 4.4 before YCC?
Don Johnson tweet media
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None
None@Noneotherthanwe·
💵 Dollar Milkshake Theory update: Step 1: USD slurps the world like a giant milkshake. Step 2: China & friends collapse, crawl to Uncle Sam begging for dollars. Step 3: Profit. Reality: America's loyal vassals now threaten to dump US Treasuries & equities… so US hands them *unlimited permanent swap lines* to keep them happy. "We’re not sucking *them*. They’re sucking *us*. " Not the 5D chess you ordered. 😂
First Squawk@FirstSquawk

BESSENT: EXTENDING PERMANENT SWAP LINES CAN BE A MAJOR FIRST STEP IN CREATING NEW U.S. DOLLAR FUNDING CENTERS IN THE GULF AND ASIA.

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Cato The Censor
Cato The Censor@Paul_AQRM·
@m3_melody The guy is a total twat. Love your commentary here, Melody, keep it up. 👍
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Armchair Warlord
Armchair Warlord@ArmchairW·
I'm endlessly amused by how the figures so oft-cited by Russophrenics on indoor plumbing in Russia are systematically skewed by the fact that tens of millions of Russians have rustic vacation cottages that are counted in the official statistics.
𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝 𝐙 🇷🇺🇮🇪@SMO_VZ

The "DACHA" ! The Jewel of the Russian Countryside! Russia has approximately 18–20 million Dachas (or Dacha-style garden plots), making it the world’s largest such phenomenon. Recent estimates put the number of garden plots and seasonal homes at over 24 million, clustered in about 80,000 garden communities near major cities. More than 60 million Russians (roughly 40–50% of the population, especially urban families) own or have access to one—often shared among relatives. This figure has remained remarkably stable since the Soviet era, when millions received small “6 sotok” (600 m²) plots, with some growth from modern year-round homes. Since 2020, dachas and household plots (личные подсобные хозяйства) have continued to supply a vital, high-quality share of Russia’s fresh food, especially potatoes, vegetables, fruits, and berries. According to Rosstat data: Potatoes: Households produced around 50–60% of the national total annually. In 2025, they accounted for 11 million tonnes out of 19.5 million tonnes total (about 56%). Earlier years showed similar dominance (e.g., 60%+ in many seasons). Vegetables: Households contribute roughly half the open-field and fresh produce. In 2025, the organized (commercial) sector hit 7.6 million tonnes, with households adding another ~6–6.5 million tonnes—keeping Russia near 90% self-sufficiency overall. These figures have held steady or declined only slightly in share as large farms modernized, but the absolute volume from dachas remains enormous—often 10–12 million tonnes of potatoes and 6+ million tonnes of vegetables yearly. Much of this is consumed fresh by families or preserved for winter, providing unmatched freshness & nutrition. Sure sign of the overall Good health of the Population Quality, Benefits & Historic Relevance: Dacha-grown food stands out for its exceptional quality: homegrown produce is typically fresher, tastier, and richer in nutrients than store-bought equivalents. Families tend plots with care—often using minimal chemicals—yielding organic-style potatoes, tomatoes, cucumbers, berries, apples & herbs bursting with flavor. It’s food grown with love, eaten with pride, and shared generously among neighbors. The benefits to the Russian population are profound and multifaceted. Dachas promote physical health through gardening and fresh air, mental well-being via escape from urban stress & strong family bonds during weekends and summers. They bolster food security (especially during economic challenges), reduce grocery costs, and foster self-reliance—many families cover a large portion of their vegetable and potato needs. Socially, they build community: barbecues (шашлык), tea on the veranda & shared harvests strengthen ties across generations. Historically, dachas trace back to Peter the Great’s era (18th century), when “dacha” (from “to give”) meant land grants for loyal subjects. They evolved into elite retreats, then exploded in the Soviet period as vital survival tools—urban workers grew food on tiny plots during shortages. Post-1990s, they helped millions weather crisis. Today, they symbolize resilience, continuity, and Russia’s deep connection to the land—a living heritage blending practicality with joy. Their Colourful Beauty Russian dachas are a feast for the eyes: imagine clusters of charming wooden houses painted in vibrant hues—bright blues, sunny yellows, emerald greens, and cheerful reds—with ornate carved window frames (наличники) and contrasting shutters. Surrounding them are lush gardens overflowing with colorful flower beds (peonies, marigolds, roses), vegetable patches, fruit trees heavy with apples or cherries & berry bushes. Winding paths lead past berry-laden fences, while birch groves and meadows frame the scene. In summer, the air fills with the scent of blooming lilacs, fresh earth, and grilling shashlik. These modest yet picturesque settlements create a uniquely Russian pastoral idyll—humble, lively, and irresistibly inviting. >>

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Don Johnson
Don Johnson@DonMiami3·
Gasoline prices Thank you for your attention to this matter
Don Johnson tweet media
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Adam Taggart
Adam Taggart@adamtaggart·
Let's say the Iranian regime was crazy/evil enough to do this It would unite the world against it. Forever. The US would destroy Kharg Island & all energy infrastructure in Iran, vaporizing its entire economy overnight. With a vengeful world cheering on. And all for what? While this would create massive hardship for many countries around the world, and the Gulf countries specifically, things would heal with time. Other oil & gas exporters would increase production, and the Gulf would rebuild. And who would benefit the most relatively? The US. It would increase energy production & exports as much as possible to meet global demand. And the rest of the world would be desperate to buy it. And its companies would be very involved in the Gulf reconstruction Is this really a preferable option for the current Iranian regime vs negotiating a peace settlement now?
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷🇸🇦🇦🇪 Iran threatening to nuke the world's oil supply: hitting Saudi's Yanbu pipeline, UAE's Fujairah terminal, and letting Houthis fully close Bab el-Mandeb. That combo could knock out 32% of global oil overnight. Gas prices? Skyrocketing. Economies? Screaming. This ain't a flex, this is IRGC claiming: "if we fall, we'll drag the world down with us." Source: @financelancelot

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Cato The Censor
Cato The Censor@Paul_AQRM·
@Convertbond FX is/was/will always be the release valve. If there is one risk that is mispriced globally, it's FX vol. Huge fat tail outliers are right ahead.
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Lawrence McDonald
Lawrence McDonald@Convertbond·
Fiscal overdosing in a multipolar world comes with a price; it's not free.
Lawrence McDonald tweet media
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Lawrence McDonald
Lawrence McDonald@Convertbond·
Narratives 1. NASDAQ 100 EXTENDS RALLY TO 13 DAYS, LONGEST STREAK SINCE 2013 2. Return since October Silver Miners $SIL +56% Oil Services $OIH +47% Copper Miners $COPX +46% Gold Miners $GDX +45% Natural Gas Equities $FCG +28% Uranium Sector $URNM +26% Mag7 $MAGS 0.00%
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Cato The Censor
Cato The Censor@Paul_AQRM·
@olddedmoroz I think every society has a form of this - "unproductive jobs". The real questions are twofold: 1. is it policy-driven as a strategic path and 2. what is the scale? China's economy is notoriously competitive so I doubt it's policy-driven and I would argue the scale is small.
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DΣΛD MӨЯӨƧΣ
DΣΛD MӨЯӨƧΣ@olddedmoroz·
@Paul_AQRM Ahh I see. It's funny, I spend quite a lot of time in China, and like to walk a lot, I've come across multiple security guard personnel, guarding random light posts and crossings. I'm pretty sure it's kind of the same thing I. E. stand here all day, we give you some money.
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