PerryPrius

I have been arguing again & again that Iran is in a very unfavorable situation (fighting against the foremost military power on the planet) ... but it does have real leverage in several senses. Most notably by virtue of its geography & smart investments in certain asymmetric warfare technologies (most notably missiles and drones), which allow it to threaten the global economy by disrupting energy supplies. This is not hype. It's not wishful thinking. It is very real. We see it playing out. And it's certainly having an impact. In the past Iran threatened to, but did not actually use this leverage, because of the terrible risks involved. But with its back against the wall & very little to lose, it's escalated to great lengths and has up to now somewhat successfully used those levers. But - This leverage is not infinite. In the past, Iran's downfall has always been in demonstrating brilliant abilities that let it punch beyond its weight ... but then failing to capitalize on those abilities and waiting so long that it eventually loses that advantage. As such there is a difficult, high stakes balance here. It cannot back down too soon or be timid under these circumstances. The madman strategy is the only way out of total annihilation. Up to a point. At some point it must then use that demonstrated ability to force a settlement. Not just a ceasefire. Something durable. And not get trapped in a post-1991 Saddam situation either. It's a difficult balance. It likely means turning down initial opportunities for a ceasefire (despite extreme pain). But not forever. At some point the leverage must be used, or it will disappear.

At a press conference, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, when asked about Iran and Afghanistan, stated: “They are our enemies whether they are Sunni or Shia.”