Peter Corman

BIG LOWERING ON A TORNADO WARNED SUPERCELL NEAR HARRISBURG PA #pawx

Be like Biff. All three @RFKracing cars will run special paint schemes in honor of Greg Biffle this weekend at @TooToughToTame.

Anyway here's a map of all EF2+ tornado soundings for select locations across the U.S.

Opened up @chase_archive to see that my chase from last week was already put in there. Shoutout to whoever submitted it already!!

Give me a storm in this environment, and I'll cook up another banger picture.

Easily a top 5 radar loop in WF history. The atmosphere is incredible.

@RadarOmegaEthan Ohio would have a good chance, especially if a scenario like the EURO panned out.

@PeterC428 Ohio?

Severe weather may return to the Central/Midwest regions of the United States this weekend, mainly focused on Sunday with a longwave trough. While the trough is there, notable timing and intensity differences result in different outcomes throughout the models.

Moisture return is quite uncertain at the time, especially with the difference in model solutions. However, if we can get upper 50s dews into the Midwest with the trough, severe weather could make an early but brief return to the US.

These differences primarily arise from the GFS/ICON, which is significantly slower at lower levels (850mb/sfc) than the other models. I hesitate to lean towards these models, and I think it's quite an outlier at the moment.

Radar vs the shot March 11th, 2026 Harrisburg, Pennsylvania

Thank you Google AI.

Meteorological breakdown of the Kankakee, IL, tornadic supercell from March 10 is coming later this week, complete with special guest! We'll be taking an in-depth look at the changes in storm behavior that led to significant tornado production from NE Illinois well into NW Indiana, as well has how this storm was able to produce gargantuan hail and significant tornadoes simultaneously. Stay tuned!

@GumryWX You're all good. I thought I remembered it incorrectly, but I couldn't remember, but I knew for sure the 0-3km vectors were just as atrocious as well. Thank you

Sorry, I was at lunch and I didn’t want to read that #essay The 0-3 km shear vector is usually the one referenced in literature, and they were absolutely atrocious. I also pointed this out and I’m glad I was able to catch it. The only QLCS that looked like it was remotely strong was the NW-SE oriented segment near DC. It was just extremely dreadful

With yesterday's event now over, I think it's time to dive into a bit of a post-mortem and analyze my thoughts from a few days ago. While it certainly failed some expectations, it wasn't a total "bust" that some people implied. Let's talk about it!

@AdamMooreWX You're welcome brother!

@PeterC428 Thanks Peter!

Announcement Time: I have been sitting on this for a few weeks now but I think it’s time to share... I’m excited to announce that I accepted a job as an SAU Analyst at the Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM). (1/2)

Side-by-side of events tracks and storm reports. This is not an operational product, but we're getting there! Look forward to more of these :)

You could argue a tornado "bust" more than anything, but I imagine we'll have at least a few tornadoes confirmed over the next few days that will make the 15 Cig 1 a little less bare. Those are just my thoughts, and happy to discuss anything further!

At the end of the day, forecasting is challenging, especially in an era where data-sparse regions are quite common. The threat was absolutely there, and I do think the MDT was warranted. While it didn't verify one, and the tornado risk underperformed, it was far from a bust.