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@aleabitoreddit @Mellokhai Smart

No, my opinion is quantum dot is way too early with names like $ALMU. Investing now likely just funnels their dilution machine for R&D. Likely will end up like 2025 $POET with constant ATMs/dilution for their "$420M balance sheet". Would prefer to just wait it out and get upside when it comes time to volume ramp.

MicroLED still feels far away before any CPO related volume ramp per Goldman Sachs note. Quantum Dot like $ALMU / QD isn't even mentioned since it's way way out by years. In a correction, "premiums" disappear, but valuation floors are backed by revenue. $SIVEF or $AAOI on the other hand are volume ramping soon <8M and directly in the CW space. Would prefer immediate upside after years of R&D/expansion... Than waiting years at the beginning for R&D into sampling into qualification... Then inflection point of volume ramp. "Technology readiness" is low for MicroLED.

@aleabitoreddit Does this impact Sivers ramp-up too

$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry. Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk. On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story) It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this. That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.

@aleabitoreddit @Mellokhai What are thoughts on HPS - is it very long term waiting to be discovered - what would you liken it to? Early LITE?

@Mellokhai Riber is also very interesting if you like $VECO and want quantum exposure. Rare as well to have a hyperscaler like $MSFT as your main customer, trades at 27 p/e, and is profitable. Quantum dot lasers are a little early though…

There's many nuanced architectural changes for "supercycles" in photonics. If you feel like you missed $LITE from last year, just frontrun the next cycle with CPO / lasers. $SIVE was my lesser known pick for laser exposure. They're in $JBL 1.6T LRO, $MRVL via Celestial, O-Net -> Hyperscalers. Which is extremely abnormal for a ~$350M MC company. If I had to draw parallels: it's similar to $AAOI 2025 or $AEHR now with current qualification cycles before volume. Which is why retail misunderstands it when you look at purely financial numbers today with negative eps or capex spend. And a lot of that execution uncertainty with volume production / capex spend for scaling dfb laser is de-risked from Win Semi. However, it looks to just keep ramping past 2029+ starting from H2 2026. Might be a little early... But I think it's a decent read on what's up and coming. Dilution is a real risk. But a lot of fears are priced into its ~$350M MC, especially when a company like $AVGO or AlChip can just buy $SIVE for vertical integration or to troll Marvell’s CPO program.

@aleabitoreddit @Jornka329996 What about $P4O

@Jornka329996 Probably $SIVE since it’s now only $330m after dropping 22%. Maybe $AAOI too, assuming their $250m ATM finished

Photonics are not having a fun time. Laser Companies from: $LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down. Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from: $IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down. Almost everything is red. From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%. Good lesson to learn: Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage. If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today. Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings. However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates. Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.

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@aleabitoreddit @andy_ay0 @aleabitoreddit what do you make of the AXTI drop today and OOAI. Which levels are you looking to add

@andy_ay0 If you're complaining about the two AI paradigm setting photonics companies at $40B valuations. Wait until you see SpaceX at $1.75T

Markets are excited about breaking news from the two leading photonics companies. As they are now included in the S&P 500: $COHR is up massive .047% on the news. This follows a 7.12% drop today. $LITE is up 1.27% on the news. This follows a 14.19% drop today. This is truly a parabolic after-hours rally.

@aleabitoreddit @Agrippa_Inv @aleabitoreddit what's ur view on EWY still not recovering, do you reckon it lingers or is it a decent buy and hold for the long-term - stock not options.

@Agrippa_Inv This one is objectively bad… I don’t see how $IREN investors could support a $6B ATM. If $NBIS ran an $11B ATM, I wouldn’t hesitate to fun for the hills either.

3 days later $IREN is having another $6B ATM, selling almost half their marketcap on the open market. Monetizing 3-4GW capacity sounds good, but not if you’re an existing shareholder. Doesn’t look like their economics cover enough of their capex in the way $NBIS does. My bull case, alongside everyone else’s last year: was for $IREN to do colo and fund GPU related expansion with FCF. This materially changed and added execution uncertainty + endless dilution on top.

@Pluto_0x @derteil00 which buildings are good in Marina, I hate the traffic there lol

Yeah, I’m gonna deploy size on this. Never been more sure about a trade to be honest It might take time to find a bottom in terms of RE, but is a dip to buy and hold. Give it 6/12 months, things will bounce back stronger than before I’m mainly interested in Villas Palm, meadows, emirates hills, the lakes And 2 BR units in Marina / JLT

I’m heavily invested in Dubai properties and UAE stock market. If tomorrow market opens with huge discounts I will withdraw more to FIAT and triple my exposure. There is no better city in the world.

THE OPPORTUNE MOMENT IS HERE. KAIROS. RT for Access.

@aleabitoreddit Is AXTI/AAOI a buy in this zone or are you waiting for lower prices

I feel like Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is a free 2-3x if people have the patience to wait a year? They're a genuine monopoly over CPO for substrates. Lot of folks looking at Shin-Etsu but they're just licensing Soitec's stuff. It's not a current materials bottleneck like $AXTI, but a demand one (they have none right now since CPO hasn't scaled up). But we all know it's coming later in 2027 -> 2028. Main thing is opportunity cost, but just a matter of when markets want to frontrun it. Still better than your index returns imo?