Tim Coleman

Step 1 of building a prediction market bot: find who's actually making money. Polymarket has a public leaderboard. But "on the leaderboard" ≠ "profitable." Here's how I built a wallet scanner that separates real edge from noise. 🧵

Things that surprised me about Polymarket wallets: 1. Many top leaderboard wallets are market makers, not directional traders. High volume, thin margins, not copyable. 2. Some "profitable" wallets are profitable on ONE huge bet and underwater on everything else. 3. Cross-category consistency is rare. When you find it, pay attention. 4. The best wallets trade less than you'd expect. Quality over quantity.

Finding wallets on Polymarket's leaderboard is easy. Knowing which ones are ACTUALLY profitable is hard. Here's why most "top trader" lists are garbage, and how I built a truth layer on top. 🧵

My entire Polymarket trading bot runs on a $75 Raspberry Pi. Not a cloud server. Not AWS. A credit-card-sized computer sitting on my desk. Here's the full tech stack and why every choice was deliberate. 🧵

I wanted to build a Polymarket trading bot. I could find plenty of people talking about building bots. Nobody was actually saying HOW they built them. So I built one from scratch. 798 commits in 6 weeks. Here's everything I learned. A thread 🧵

@PolySocketDev @direkturcrypto I'm building a copy trader at the moment and would be interested.

@direkturcrypto Do you do any copy trading too? We're looking for some more testers that have live bots that can benefit.

the strategy is just exploit the market 🤣 i'll share the code soon if this strategy cooking hard. i've to go bed

@Abomination81 @Polymarket I'm working on reducing internal reaction lag right now, hoping that will help some. I'll definitely look into splits, too, hopefully that will help me copy more trades.

Yup, great on low liquidity. I like the split share because I can split, say 300 shares... and it is free... if I let it resolve I get my 300 back... but they are sitting there to deploy at any time... So most of my strategies are gtc and if they dont fill quickly, I have the resting gtc on the split too... then its really an accounting job, verifying you dont accidentally overfill

Lets fix your Polymarket bot. Now that V2 is out and I've transitioned most of my bots I have time to help some people out. The rules. Give a TLDR of what your bot does, and what the issue is. More details the better. Try and ask specific questions. @Polymarket

@Blinus48 @Abomination81 @Polymarket Yeah, that’s what it feels like. The signal is there, but by the time the order gets there the usable liquidity has vanished.

@PixelsNTing @Abomination81 @Polymarket Matching engine latency is killing you. Nothing can be done, they need to fix it.

@AliInMotion @Abomination81 @Polymarket Custom Python setup at the moment. It watches the trader’s Polymarket activity, logs the trades, then feeds them into my own paper/live copy-trader. The signal capture side seems fine. The main issue is live execution, at the moment.

@PixelsNTing @Abomination81 @Polymarket What are you using for getting the copy trade info?

@Abomination81 @Polymarket That’s really useful, thanks. I hadn’t properly thought about using the opposite side as a synthetic entry route. The split and sell opposite idea makes a lot of sense for thin books where my FAKs are just dying with no match.

Yes. There are a few work arounds. 1. you can naked sell the opposite side if liquidity exists there, ie instead of buying 62c you can naked sell 38c. 2. You can split shares. So if you want to buy at 62c, you can buy split tokens, and put a gtc to sell the opposite side at 38c.. If they fill you get extra up shares, if they dont you lose nothing

@GTSmoz woo, why have you blocked me bro? Did I say something?

@NVIDIAGeForceUK @Hali Battlefield, literally any of them

We've teamed up with @hali to give away a signed custom GeForce RTX 5080 Founders Edition! 🔵🟡 Want it? Tell us what multiplayer PC game you and the squad have put the most hours in to enter to WIN!

@NVIDIAGeForceUK PRAGMATA RTX

PRAGMATA has launched with #RTXON, featuring path tracing and DLSS 4! To celebrate, we are giving away this custom wrapped GeForce RTX 5090 featuring Hugh and Diana, perfect for the adventure that awaits on the moon. Want it? Comment "PRAGMATA RTX" to enter!

Nexo becomes the first-ever Official Digital Wealth Platform of the @DPWorldTour – and the Title Partner of the Nexo Championship, debuting this August at @TrumpScotland. This is a groundbreaking, multi-year partnership between a crypto-native company and global golf. 🧵

Great news adventurers! POPUCOM IS ALMOST HERE! 3 DAYS TO GO! 🎉 To celebrate, we’re giving away free Steam keys to 5 lucky adventurers. Just follow, like, and share this post before June 1st for your chance to win. Steam: store.steampowered.com/app/2543180/PO… Epic Games Store: store.epicgames.com/p/popucom-3b79… Official Website: popucom.gryphline.com #POPUCOM #Steam #EpicGamesStore

@Mrferguson420 @Glossywicket Looks fuckin lush bro. Love a good Ragu, I do 😂

As I've got the privilege of @Glossywicket staying at mine for the game, I had to bust out a Sausage and Fennel Ragu tonight. A victory meal. #potsandpans

@0xJMOZ Thinking of opening an ISA but don't know what do. I'm with Lloyds, got any tips?

Stocks on sale in time for ISA allowance rollover.

And there you have it. Topped with black onion and black mustard seeds. #potsandpans

🔥🔥 Unmasking @Binance: The Puppet Master Behind Crypto Market Manipulation. MUST READ, it puts all of what we have observed together. If you've been vigilant, observing the uncanny identical movements across numerous cryptocurrency charts, it's evident that Bitcoin (BTC) serves as the liquidity core of the entire crypto system. Here's my theory on why this happens: 1. Binance's Dominance in Exchange Liquidity A vast majority of cryptocurrency exchanges rely on Binance for token liquidity and other essential features. Binance has effectively constructed a "CEX in a box," providing smaller and startup exchanges with a turnkey solution that includes compliance with Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) regulations. This dependency centralizes control and amplifies Binance's influence over the market. 2. Fractional Reserve Practices and Transparency Issues Binance operates on a fractional reserve model, holding only the total value of customers' funds rather than the actual tokens. While they disclose their Bitcoin balance, there's no legal obligation for comprehensive transparency, raising concerns about the actual reserves held. Notably, Binance has faced legal actions for various violations, including operating unregistered exchanges and misleading investors about trading controls. 3. Market Manipulation Through Arbitrage and Price Suppression Analysis of trading data indicates that Binance, and by extension the entire industry, manipulates token prices under the guise of "arbitrage." In reality, they orchestrate the depreciation of most tokens to compensate for deficits in customer funds. For example, if BTC's value drops by $5 billion, Binance's reserves for other tokens, such as XRP, also face deficits due to their fractional reserve model. To rectify this, Binance allegedly suppresses XRP's price to align their BTC reserves with customer token holdings. This orchestrated manipulation ensures that every token on Binance and major exchanges plummets simultaneously. Such practices have led to legal scrutiny, with allegations of artificially inflating trading volumes and diverting customer funds. 4. The Illusion of Altcoin Seasons Occasionally, when BTC trades sideways, we witness phenomena dubbed "alt seasons." During these periods, market makers and high-frequency traders, driven by the need to maintain profitability, shift focus to altcoins, creating an illusion of decentralized market dynamics. However, this too is a calculated maneuver within the centralized control exerted by dominant exchanges like Binance. In conclusion, the synchronized movements of cryptocurrency tokens are not mere coincidences but the result of deliberate manipulations by centralized entities like Binance. Their opaque practices and disproportionate control over market liquidity enable them to orchestrate price movements, undermining the decentralized ethos of the cryptocurrency market. Oh and don't forget a convicted criminal @cz_binance still owns 90% of Binance.