Point 73

@breakingthemark @choffstein Thank you for digging this up - has sent me down a good rabbit hole

@choffstein Related to this? twitter.com/choffstein/sta…

🎧 @HariPKrishnan2 interviews Jean-Philippe Bouchaud 💥 Impact of noise versus news 🧮 Inelastic market hypothesis 🎲 Random matrix theory 📈 Enhancing trend following toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/09-vol…

Hon @PMOIndia @cmohry @MEAIndia @police_haryana @DC_Gurugram My father passed away last night & we believe there was foul play and seek justice. Moreover, this should never happen to anyone living in India India can only be investable if there is a rule of law #HumanrightsIndia

Second Nutrien CEO gone within a year... Must be a coincidence

The contempt in which Britain's elite holds the public has never been more eloquently expressed than in the decision to award Tony Blair the highest order of knighthood. One million Iraqis dead, three million dispossessed, a trail of blood to 7/7. Rise Sir Tony!

Wanted a break & finished reading the first Dune book - considering whether to carry on to Dune Messiah and the others. Does it get better from here? Seems like the first book was written as a standalone & I'd hate if the others were more afterthoughts

@BluthCapital @kingkang80 @PreparedRemarks Because other companies will expand capacity and push themselves down the cost curve. When times aren't good ( see cyclical), you'd rather be there with them than bleeding from the top. E.g. what can BHP Jansen do to potash supply a decade from now?

@Point73_Capital @kingkang80 @PreparedRemarks Why expand capacity when your own stock price provides a higher absolute return that's risk free? This time, the cure for high prices is - first - high stock prices. Any CEO expanding capacity vs buying bqck 20% FCF stock should be fired

What’s your highest conviction non-FAANGM long or short for 2022? And why? If you say Tesla for either answer I’ll block & report you for self-harm.

@BluthCapital @kingkang80 @PreparedRemarks Fair point but not sure about lockdown argument- ferts market is so hot these mines are delaying maintenance to try to meet demand. Plus we now know that lockdowns don't decrease demand for food. Debt is down,& I think this is more firepower for future capacity expansion

@Point73_Capital @kingkang80 @PreparedRemarks Huge diff this time w current stock prices, debt rates, & cap structure. These names are paying down debt right now rather than levering up. They're buying back shares vs issuing equity to seize the opportunity. Why? IMO bc they aren't assured of no more lockdowns by politicians

@kingkang80 @BluthCapital @PreparedRemarks Don't have the graph at hand but plot any forward multiple against earnings growth & you see why these companies are cyclical. Not that I disagree with long thesis , I think outlook ferts esp potash is still bullish. But we shouldn't expect peak multiples near top of cycle

@BluthCapital @PreparedRemarks Holy Toledo Batman. $MOS has a 3.8x NTM EV/EBIDTA and growing +20% for next year. Who knew fertilizer could be so stinkin' (pun intended) cheap?

'Being dumb is the process of forgetting how to learn' Gold. Thank you Kris & Merry Christmas!

@davidbelle_ 🤣🤣🤣

All these fintwit boomers never grew up taking career advice from highschoolers LARPing as HF managers on WSO and it really shows

Saddest thing about the @cloudy_cl story is that I no longer believe it's possible to be in your 40s, making pepe memes and listening to drill music Heartbreak

I don't see enough credit being given to how elaborate his whole schtick was... It's fucking hilarious 🤣🤣🤣 will admit it fooled me

@cloudy_cl 5->6->7->8->9? figs , which move brought the most noticeable difference in living for you? Also how u got started in art collecting would b cool to read

@cloudy_cl @davidbelle_ Visuals on the Skepta one for me

@cloudy_cl @RealMasalaBonds @ander_hk @davidbelle_ Does being a degenerate autist not cut the diversity requirement anymore

@goodalexander Seems like if you wanted to play the sanctions catalyst, it would be better to long K+S- high cost producer & highly exposed to Europe, which would be the market most affected by capacity from Belarus

@goodalexander Belaruskali has been selling to India and China since sanctions came on years ago. Why would any new sanctions change this? Do you have any specific sanctions in mind?

@cloudy_cl What's something that people you meet have too much of & what's something they have too little of

@goodalexander @threadreaderapp unroll

I bought Mosaic, Nutrien, Corteva and CF Industries $MOS $NTR $CTVA $CF on the close today and shorted the consumer staples $XLP, 13% of capital a side. 1/ Dec 8 Belarusian sanctions, inflation hedge inflows, and LFP battery phosphate demand should drive this trade til Year End