Polepole

@JoumannaTV Delusional. Iran caved to avoid potential humiliation of losing their only remaining leverage the strait. Better to extract some concessions

Good perspective on IRGC thinking and strategic calculations from here. A re-opening of the strait won’t come for free ⬇️

@HuXijin_GT Perhaps China could offer to re educate the IRGC leadership in Xinjiang?

The US-Iran negotiations have reached a deadlock. Personally, I believe that now is the time when both sides are relatively most willing for China to play a role. However, if either the US or Iran wants China to help push to break the deadlock, in addition to asking China to persuade the other side, they should also respect China’s rational suggestions. It is unrealistic if both sides want Beijing to pressure the other side unilaterally. Think about it: the US carried out so many bombings, and Iran blocked the Hormoz Strait so tightly, yet neither side forced the other to give in. In this situation, I believe China’s ability to persuade either Iran or the US unilaterally is clearly limited. Therefore, if China wants to play a role, both sides need to show a willingness to make compromises.

@JoumannaTV They want to blame iran for escalation when it attacks third party ships in international waters

So yesterday’s 15 missiles and 4 drones launched at the UAE don’t meet the threshold for war. Notable *IRANIAN ATTACKS SINCE CEASEFIRE BELOW THRESHOLD FOR WAR: CAINE

@laurnorman Shows Iran the cost of not making some very easy compromises

The question is how will a short operation achieve what a longer and very widespread operation did not achieve?

@JoumannaTV Hardly comparable, UAE has every right to be hostile after 2900 unprovoked attacks

And vice versa

@gbrew24 They took the risk in the 80s and with an escort they will do so again

"There was ⁠no immediate sign that large numbers of merchant ships were making new attempts to cross, and major shipping companies said they were likely to wait for an agreed end to hostilities before trying." Shippers decide when the strait is open, not the US or Iran. Today's events haven't changed their attitude. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

@gbrew24 If the deal was close, US wouldn’t have upped ante. Aragchi said similar things before the collapse of the previous two negotiations despite knowing Iran was not respecting America’s red lines.

"Talks are making progress," says Araghchi. Trump himself made a similar comment. Makes the last 24 hours in the Gulf all the more curious. What, exactly, was the US trying to achieve?

@Mostafa_Najafii They launched the greatest number of attacks on UAE from day one, including much civilian infrastructure. They did so because proximity and Abraham Accords

چرا امارات هدف قرار گرفت؟ پس از پایان آتش‌بس، علی‌رغم تلاش اکثر کشورها برای پایان دادن به جنگ، حاکمان امارات به ویژه در ابوظبی و دبی، مسیر دیگری را انتخاب کردند و رویکرد خصمانه‌ای را علیه ایران در پیش گرفتند که بی سابقه بوده است. از لابی گسترده و تحریک آمریکا و اسرائیل برای حمله به ایران، آزار و اذیت ایرانی‌ها در امارات و مصادره اموال آن‌‌ها، مسدود کردن دارایی‌های ایران، افزایش تحرکات نظامی-امنیتی اسرائیل در امارات به ویژه برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات، میزبانی از تحرکات لجستیکی-عملیاتی جدید آمریکا پس از آتش‌بس، تحرکات جدید برای به چالش کشیدن معادله نفتی و … از جمله دلایل مهم حمله به امارات بوده است. ایران پس از جنگ هشدارهای بی‌سابقه‌ای را به این بازیگر کوچک اما رویاپرداز داده است که بخشی از این هشدار نیز رودرو و بدون تعارف و ملاحظه مخابره شده است. در هر درگیری جدیدی، ابوظبی و دبی ضربات سخت و جبران‌ناپذیری متحمل می‌شوند.

@LiveWithJami @AnasMallick @ajmaljami There’s been a bunch of military action today

ایران امریکہ کے درمیان سفارت کاری کی کامیابی سے اسلام آباد میں دوسرے راؤنڈ ہونے کے کتنے امکانات موجود ؟ دونوں طرف سے ملٹری ایکشن نہیں ہوا تو دس سے بارہ روز کے اندر نہ صرف دوسرا راؤنڈ بلکہ حتمی معاہدے کا امکان بھی موجود ہے انس ملک @ajmaljami @AnasMallick #islamabadaccord

@SubutaiB @gbrew24 Al Jazeera does say 15 years on the Arabic site •من محيط إيران البحري وإنهاء حالة التحشيد العسكري. •المرحلة الثانية تناقش فكرة تجميد كامل لعمليات تخصيب اليورانيوم لسقف زمني قد يصل إلى 15 عاما. •المرحلة الثانية من المقترح تنص

@gbrew24 Neither Al Jazeera or Al-Arabiya talk of a 15 year enrichment freeze.

Details on Iran's proposal are now getting out--what Iran is offering, rather than just its demands. -15 year enrichment freeze, after which time Iran will enrich to 3.5% -an international body to administer a general peace between the US, Israel, Iran and Hezbollah. -reopening of the strait, including minesweeping (Iran has offered to cooperate with US on this). -gradually ending blockade (so not immediate) -a new clause on "compensation" (unclear but could address tolls)

@jkmccrann @SanamVakil Hasn’t changed much, about 220-250 aed

@Polepolehak @SanamVakil How much does it cost to fill up your car?

I agree with Danny here but would add that Iran‘s leadership has increased its leverage and feels buoyed by its performance in the war but where Tehran continues to fail is at the negotiating table. It has thus far not been able to translate its cards into any sort of deal since the 2015 JCPOA. Their reputation as great negotiators depends on obtaining something tangible not just perpetually resisting.

@Amena__Bakr They should declare war on Iran if it does not stop blockading the strait

The GCC have an extraordinary summit in Jeddah today

@HuXijin_GT lol in China you would have already castrated every member of the death cult

Iran is very tough, and once again stood up the U.S. negotiating delegation. This not only makes Washington lose face, but will also weaken its ability to demand a higher price at the negotiating table. More importantly, this reflects that the gap between Tehran and Washington’s positions remains very large, and that the Iranians have no trust at all in the U.S. side. They believe that only toughness can prevent them from falling into Washington’s trap. Moreover, they believe that Trump is more eager than they are to reach an agreement, and that their tolerance for a stalemate is higher than Washington’s.

@laurnorman @gbrew24 It just shows IRGC has taken over their social media accounts.

@gbrew24 Fine. But such a calibrated show looks utterly defensive and faked. Why go though that palava? It makes Iran regime look more divided than it may be.

My highly informed theory as to why Araghchi, Qalibaf and other officials issued simultaneous and identical statements declaring the regime is united is that the regime wants to show that it's united. That's it.

@JoumannaTV Bs. They just want to do the same themselves to Trump and it will be a very pointless and costly game for the Iranian people

Trump’s threats and combative social media posts are discouraging Iran from agreeing to more in-person peace talks with the US, officials say Iranian negotiators have also said those posts, in which Trump’s said he may “blow up the rest of their country” and send it “back to the Stone Ages,” are aimed at humiliating Tehran’s leaders and making them less inclined to strike a deal bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@gbrew24 Rather tedious how the far left and pro Iran apologists always repeat the “Attacks are ineffective so attacks must stop!” line. Iran has been super degraded and it is tautological that this strategy works eventually

"We're going to kill the ones who don't want to work with us" is essentially how this war started, interesting that they're thinking about giving it another go.

@ianellisjones @TheIntelFrog They say they are using drones to clear not ships

ft @TheIntelFrog

As we reported on April 13, a pair of Avenger class mine-hunters homeported in Japan were tracked sailing westward out of the Pacific Ocean, however, they are still a distance away from the Strait. USS Chief and USS Pioneer departed Colombo, Sri Lanka, yesterday following a two-day port call, public AIS data shows. They stopped transmitting AIS while steaming northwest at 10 knots toward the CENTCOM area of responsibility, although the final destination is unconfirmed. The U.S. also has a trio of littoral combat ships (LCS) forward-deployed to U.S. 5th Fleet and configured for mine countermeasures missions. However, those ships were redeployed from Bahrain ahead of the conflict, and two emerged unexpectedly in Southeast Asia last month. It remains unclear why the decision was made to send them to the other side of the globe amid the threat of Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz, but both were recently spotted sailing northbound in the Malacca Strait after weeks in Singapore. USS Canberra is currently in CENTCOM, according to a post on the Pentagon’s image sharing site that shows the Independence class LCS patrolling in the Arabian Sea. The arrival of Pioneer and Chief would increase ships with MCM capabilities from one to three, tripling coverage in the region, which aligns with Trump’s order. The other two LCSs, USS Tulsa and USS Santa Barbara, could also be nearby or on station in the Middle East to support the mission. w/ @haltman

@Alea_ Fake

🛑 PAKISTANI PROPOSAL TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN EXCHANGE FOR PARTIAL LIFTING OF SANCTIONS ON IRAN

@WarMonitor3 It’s less than a 2 hour flight

There is still no indication that the Iranian delegation has arrived in Islamabad for talks with the US...