Chris

484 posts

Chris

Chris

@SubutaiB

Roving analyst International Relations, Military Studies and Economics

New York Katılım Temmuz 2020
160 Takip Edilen28 Takipçiler
Chris retweetledi
Andrew Fogle
Andrew Fogle@andfogle·
many are saying this would end in inglorious battlefield defeat like the Bay of Pigs but actually if you gave a bunch of monarchists guns they would end up in a factional Mexican standoff over who among them was a regime plant before exiting the troop carrier
Farzan Sabet@IranWonk

Since US seizure of #Iran's islands is on the table, here's an out-of-the-box idea that's been circulating: Creating a diaspora-based Immortal Guard unit to spearhead an invasion of southern Iran from one of these islands, absorbing defectors and volunteers as it heads north.

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Gérard Araud
Gérard Araud@GerardAraud·
Le risque serait que l’Iran, fort de la dominance stratégique qui est la sienne, ne surestime sa main et n’offre pas à Trump le minimum dont il a besoin pour se dégager honorablement du guêpier où il s’est jeté.
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Chris
Chris@SubutaiB·
@RWApodcast Iran war proved the Russian hawks and schizos like Girkin were right: just stop worrying and escalate horizontally.
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Russians With Attitude
Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast·
Iran would be bombing all four of these countries in response and I really don't see a reason not to. What are they going to do, offer sanctions relief?
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Russians With Attitude
Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast·
Several Ukrainian drones have recently crashed in the Baltic countries, suggesting that they were using Polish and Baltic airspace for the massed attacks in northern Russia. Map shows crash sites, target and assumed flight path. Convenient way of avoiding Russian air defences.
Russians With Attitude tweet media
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Chris
Chris@SubutaiB·
@Malbrunot C'est un peu prématuré d'annoncer cela. A voir si le clergé reprend la main après la guerre.
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Georges Malbrunot
Georges Malbrunot@Malbrunot·
Iran-Guerre. Donald Trump à raison. Grâce à lui, il y a eu un changement de régime en Iran. On est passé d'un régime religieux-militaire à un régime purement militaire, avec les Gardiens de la révolution aux commandes, le nouveau guide suprême n'étant que la couverture religieuse, qui plus est mal en point, du pouvoir militaire. C'est donc une erreur de parler de "régime des mollahs ". #IranWar‌
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Chris@SubutaiB·
@MazMHussain @CityBureaucrat From the hawkish / neocons type it is win-win: either they get rid of the Islamic Republic or they get rid of Trump.
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Murtaza Hussain
Murtaza Hussain@MazMHussain·
@CityBureaucrat You can tell this is true from their remarkably muted response to the initiation of the war. That said I think they preferred that Trump do it and bear the blowback from the economic consequences, casualties, or adverse political results.
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Second City Bureaucrat
Second City Bureaucrat@CityBureaucrat·
Even among U.S. intelligence people who dislike Israel (or its current leadership), the consensus seems closer to the conclusion that this was the right time to attack Iran, because Israel had degraded its proxies, Assad was out in Syria, and because Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine. The primary reason you hear any opposition from dem-aligned intelligence is for short-term political gains so the Dems can regain control and focus on keeping the border open, or because they think the civilian leadership & Hegseth are incompetent, but in any case not because they actually oppose the conflict (you'll see this confirmed when the dems vote in favor of supplemental appropriations for the war). I remain opposed because I don't trust the foreign policy establishment's (including Israel's) disinterest in the well-being of American citizens.
Furkan Gözükara@FurkanGozukara

Terrifying revelation. Mearsheimer confirms the entire US intelligence community warned Trump against this war. But Trump ignored the CIA and listened exclusively to the Israelis, Jared Kushner, and Zionist advisors. They hijacked American foreign policy.

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Chris@SubutaiB·
@matthew_petti Turns out overthinking and consensus seeking within collective leadership can be counterproductive. Just like China during the trade war they had to get their back put against the wall for them to start actually using their leverage.
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Matthew Petti
Matthew Petti@matthew_petti·
Then why did they handle every crisis from 2019 to 2025 so badly? Saying they’ve always been genius philosopher kings fails to appreciate just how rapidly they’ve adapted and improved their decision making over the past half year.
Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast

One advantage the Iranians have is that their entire elite seems to consist of 130 IQ polymath combat veterans with PhDs who stormed across minefields with fixed bayonets surrounded by poison gas back in the day and then spent 30 years studying philosophy, game theory, engineering and military science. Average decision-maker quality appears to be dramatically higher than elsewhere, especially qualified for shit-hits-the-fan situations

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Chris
Chris@SubutaiB·
@matthew_petti A lot of Iran analysts finally got the big war they had been clamoring for and now that it is heading for a strategic catastrophe for the US they are coming up with all kinds of cope. Hangover after the euphoria of the first day decapitation is hitting hard.
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Chris retweetledi
Matthew Petti
Matthew Petti@matthew_petti·
The Atlantic is already testing the stab-in-the-back myth, the lily-livered American public failed their virile president, it’s a weakness of our system that our leaders even have to answer to the rabble…
Bianna Golodryga@biannagolodryga

“This is ultimately a war between a democracy’s impatience and a theocracy’s ruthless endurance. The question is whether, for the first time since 1979, Tehran has finally met a U.S. president more committed to destroying the regime than the regime is to destroying him.”

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Chris@SubutaiB·
@teortaxesTex This is a catastrophic deal and a non-starter for Iran.
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Chris@SubutaiB·
@phl43 Some Pahlavists legitimately believe 1979 was a foreign invasion. They think Khomeini is a Shia from India that invaded Iran.
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Chris@SubutaiB·
@gbrew24 @SuspendedFe Yes but is there any info on the channel and on if that money can actually be accessed and spent? Bessent claims Iran won't have access to the funds.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
India bought 5 million bbls of Iran crude just after sanctions were dropped, reportedly at a $7 premium. That's a steal compared to Oman or UAE barrels, which are going for $140-150. Commercial logic relatively straightforward. reuters.com/business/energ…
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Chris
Chris@SubutaiB·
@dex_eve Great article. Do you think more precise missiles from Iran would have changed the equation or are conventional BMs just fundamentally limited?
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Chris@SubutaiB·
@kamilkazani How did the pie get smaller? Did GDP not grow during the war?
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Kamil Galeev
Kamil Galeev@kamilkazani·
One of the least discussed aspects of the Russian Special Operation is the *massive* redistribution of assets within Russia. Like, the whole pie is getting smaller of course. But for many & many of the well connected individuals, their personal slice is getting waaaay larger
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran

5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!

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Chris@SubutaiB·
@matthew_petti He has gone from excellent Iran analysis to full on cope these past few months.
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Chris@SubutaiB·
@MazMHussain Yes this is some Ukraine war level of aura loss but the good thing is that there is still time to get out of it before things get worse.
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Murtaza Hussain
Murtaza Hussain@MazMHussain·
Even charitably setting aside the ill-advised goal of regime change if the U.S. acting in conjunction with Israel was unable to suppress Iranian fire after three weeks of fighting—or even subdue it enough to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or stop attacks on its regional allies and military bases—then nobody on Earth seriously believes that the U.S. could defend the first or second island chain against a country that is actually a peer rival. This is not a problem that can even be solved by more fighting attempting to drag things out for diminishing returns and is simply a tremendous loss of aura and deterrence that took place for no real reason.
vasabjit banerjee@vasabjit_b

As things stand, the Iranian regime has outlasted the U.S. attack. If regime continuity was an objective of Iran's leaders, they achieved it. If access to the Strait of Hormuz was a goal, they achieved it. It may lower oil prices, but it has implications for U.S. credibility. 1/2

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Chris@SubutaiB·
@phl43 Fair but there is a limit to the amount of blunders you can make before you reach a "gradually then suddenly" type of crisis. The US does not have the same kind of fiscal space it had in the 90s and 2000s and each crisis whether war or financial reduces its margin of maneuver.
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Philippe Lemoine
Philippe Lemoine@phl43·
Once again, people really underestimate how powerful and secure the US is, which is why they keep hoping against all evidence to the contrary that something terrible will befall to Americans because of their foreign policy blunders that will finally make them learn and stop doing stupid shit. But even in the worst case scenario, where Trump orders a ground invasion and it turns into a quagmire that lasts years, Americans will be fine. They will be harmed, but less than almost everyone else, because the US will be relatively insulated from the both the energy shock and the economic slowdown that will result from it since it's a net exporter of energy and is probably the least trade-dependent major economy. Moreover, while the cost will be huge even for Americans, it will be relatively invisible because 1) it will be very diffuse, 2) Americans are so rich that even a much larger cost per capita would still leave them very well-off and 3) people won't really see it for the same kind of reasons that Bastiat explained a long time ago in his parable of the broken window. For the rest of the world, especially some of the poorest people, it will be a different story, but Americans mostly won't feel much. Even the invasion of Iraq, which is widely seen as one of the worst foreign policy blunders in US history and cost the US trillions of dollar, didn't make such a huge difference for Americans. They complain about it and talk about how it was a terrible mistake, but for the average American it was mostly a non-event, for the same reasons I just mentioned. I also don't think it will have the effects some people think on US influence in the world in general and in the Middle East in particular. It's not going to end the role of the dollar and I don't think Gulf states will abandon their alliance with the US either. Where else would they go? It's not as if China was going to protect them from Iran or as if they had a lot of attractive yuan-denominated assets to buy with their earnings from oil and gas exports. To be clear, I don't say that to defend this stupidity or to deny that it will have large costs even for Americans in absolute terms (to say nothing of the effects it will have on the rest of the world), I'm just saying that people are fooling themselves if they think that it will teach Americans a lesson. At best it will be a very short-lived lesson they will forget after a few years because it won't matter much for them.
Philippe Lemoine@phl43

I think it will hurt the US, but it will hurt the rest of the world even more, because the US is more insulated from the both the energy shock and the economic slowdown that will result from it. I think all the other stuff will likely not matter a lot one way or another in the long run. As I keep saying, the problem with the US is that it's so rich and powerful that, except in dealing with China, it can do the stupidest shit imaginable and it won't really matter that much to Americans in the grand scheme of things, which is why you never learn.

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Matthew Kroenig
Matthew Kroenig@MatthewKroenig·
The Iranian government is not a reliable source of information.
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: 🔴There are no direct talks between Tehran and Washington 🔴The U.S. president’s statements are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans 🔴Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all such requests should be directed to Washington

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Chris
Chris@SubutaiB·
@DAlperovitch Glad you are finally coming around around to what a strategic disaster the Iran war is. And yes it validates the Taiwan porcupine strategy championed by Bridge Colby among others.
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Dmitri Alperovitch
Dmitri Alperovitch@DAlperovitch·
Taiwan needs to be taking careful notes right now about how relatively easy it is to shut down a small waterway vital to the commerce of an adversary that desires to attack you, and to gain great leverage while doing so…
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🪂
🪂@stepslanter·
@SubutaiB @gonglei89 Wasn’t the system that locked onto and hit the F35 their own product?
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Keşfet

@RWApodcast @Malbrunot @MazMHussain @CityBureaucrat @matthew_petti @policytensor @teortaxesTex @phl43