Mini Pavan Polls👶

Don't be fooled by the 85% turnout headline for the Tamil Nadu 2026 elections. 🗳️ While it looks like a record-shattering surge, the truth is hidden in the math. Let’s break down why the 85% figure is actually a 'statistical cleanup' story. 🧵 #TNElections2026 #TamilNadu

@MacroMatrix1 The reality is always on a high 👶

ADMK supporter - Vijay is splitting DMK votes, ADMK will win majority. DMK supporter - Vijay is splitting ADMK voters, we will win majority TVK supporter - Vijay is splitting every one votes, we will win majority Neutral - Vijay impact is there but don’t know what will happen. @TVKVijayHQ #TVKVijay‌ #DMK #ADMK #BJP #NDA #Congress

They are always loyal to money 🤑 but actually they even taken opinions from gurumurthy as well so we can't say it's fully baised but yes they are for bjp 👶

@greatandhranews Let's be honest even if they come to an alliance nobody will take them , In the present era even the person with big aura and booth level management and great speaking skills failing miserably and she doesn't have anything but she has time of 2 years to prove herself

ఆంధ్రలో జనసేన పొత్తులు లేనిది ఎన్నికల్లోకి వెళ్లదు. తెలంగాణ‌లో తెలంగాణ రాష్ట్ర సేన అయినా పొత్తులు లేకుండా ఎన్నికలకు వెళ్తుందా అనే చ‌ర్చ అప్పుడే న‌డుస్తోంది

@itisprashanth Tvk if it crosses 20% then it's a big win but in reality less than 15% 👶

Ground report - many hard core Ajith sir fans with their families have voted for TVK .

If it's a really ground report then u have done a fanatic job , but just for attention if u are doing all this then ur cooked on may 4th 👶

In the present generation the stars and big personalities even after having all the aura failed miserably then Kavitha who has neither, who even lost as a MP when 9mps won out of 17 in 2019 from brs, it is easy to say she is at present going to lose deposits #TelanganaRashtraSena

@IndiaToday @nramind @Akshita_N The reality of voter turnout 👇 👶

#TamilNaduPolls2026 | Will Tamil Nadu see a hung Assembly? @nramind says no—based on polling data and ground observations, he expects a single-party majority for the DMK. #DMK #AIADMK #TVK #NTK #Super6 | @Akshita_N

So basically cheated 100cr population 🥺

@sumanthraman This is going to happen 👶

Almost every Tamil journalist I spoke to today says TVK will take mostly AIADMK vote and much smaller number of DMK votes. Many of them are predicting 150-160+ for DMK alliance. Also almost all of them are giving Vijay at least 20% overall vote share. I am completely gobsmacked. I still maintain Vijay will largely be an urban phenomenon and I do not expect him to cross 15% max in rural areas, maybe even dropping to 10% or lower in some seats. I believe there is serious overestimation being done of TVK's vote share. Maybe this post won't age well or maybe it will. Let us see on 4th May. #TNAssemblyElections

Journey of Raghav Chadha A Route How to shift Your party From "Instagram’s PM" to BJP’s newest recruit! 😆 Raghav Chadha really used those bots to build the hype just to jump ship. Masterclass in diversion or just a classic U-turn? The "poster boy" has a new frame now! #raghav

Turns out the "samosa" issues were more serious than we thought! 🥟 Raghav Chadha ditches the 🧹 for the 🪷 after months of diversion. Those "future PM" bots must be feeling pretty confused right now. 🤡📱#delhipolitics #bjp #aap #arvindkejrwal #RaghavChadha

The AAP "loyalist" narrative was just a distraction. While bots were busy editing him into PM reels, he was busy planning his exit. Fooled the public, joined the BJP. The mask finally slipped! 🎭🚩 #AAPtobjp #delhipolitics #RaghavChadha

From "Instagram’s PM" to BJP’s newest recruit! 😆 Raghav Chadha really used those bots to build the hype just to jump ship. Masterclass in diversion or just a classic U-turn? The "poster boy" has a new frame now! 🚶‍♂️ #RaghavChadha #BJP #PoliticsUpdate #RaghavChadha

From "Instagram’s PM" to BJP’s newest recruit! 😆 Raghav Chadha really used those bots to build the hype just to jump ship. Masterclass in diversion or just a classic U-turn? The "poster boy" has a new frame now! 🖼️🚶‍♂️ #aap #BJP #PoliticsUpdate #RaghavChadha

@KartiPC Here is mini pavan analysis 👶

Everyone is an expert psephologist until May 4th!

@Mappeducitizen @ANI That's interesting but the fact is in one single constituency only 11000 votes will be increased + postal ballots 👶

@Political_star1 @ANI My analysis below.A net increase of 2 percent is what we are expecting.

#WATCH | Chennai | On record high polling in Tamil Nadu elections, DMK spokesperson Saravanan Annadurai says, "The polling percentage is higher because the denominator has come down. You brought the number of voters down by introducing SIR, and now you are saying that the polling percentage is higher. This is not unprecedented. It is as per the traditional numbers. It is normal, as in every election, 40-50 lakh eligible voters get added. The CEC taking credit for this is the biggest joke. You should have started SIR two years ago. There are so many stories on social media about people not being able to vote due to this. Right now, the basic idea of SIR is to exclude and not include."

@rameshlaus Don't be fooled by the 85% turnout headline for the Tamil Nadu 2026 elections. 🗳️ While it looks like a record-shattering surge, the truth is hidden in the math. Let’s break down why the 85% figure is actually a 'statistical cleanup' story. 🧵 #TNElections2026

Chennai city has done a #WhistlePodu #IYKYK

@dravidasishu Don't be fooled by the 85% turnout headline for the Tamil Nadu 2026 elections. 🗳️ While it looks like a record-shattering surge, the truth is hidden in the math. Let’s break down why the 85% figure is actually a 'statistical cleanup' story. Watch my pinned 🧵 #TNElections2026

TVK doesn’t have to split only from DMK+ or ADMK votes. NDA got 18% votes and NTK 8% votes in 2024 ( total 26%) and basically except for a 3-4% core BJP, 2% core PMk and 3% core tamil nationalist, the rest 16-17% are all protest 3rd party votes that wouldn’t go to 🌱 or 🌅. These also could go to TVK. @TVKVijayHQ is getting votes from all over + new voters too. So it is wrong to assume that it splits 🌅 and so benefits 🌱 or vice versa.

@sumanthraman Who do these 2.8 Million 'Extra' voters belong to? 1️⃣ First-time youth voters? 2️⃣ The 'Vijay Factor' (TVK) mobilization? 3️⃣ Strong anti-incumbency? When absolute numbers rise despite a smaller voter base, it usually means high polarization. Someone's base was extremely motivated.

@sumanthraman But here is the real story: Even with a smaller list, more people actually voted! 2021: ~4.59 Crore votes cast 2026: ~4.87 Crore votes cast That’s an absolute increase of 2.8 Million voters. This is the 'Real Pulse' of TN 2026. 🔊

As of now around, 27 lakh more people have voted in Tamil Nadu yesterday than those who did in the 2021 Assembly elections. That's an extra 4.8%. Might end up at an additional 5% turnout. That is significant. Don't know why one side is downplaying this. #TamilNaduElections2026