PolyLacuna

Absolutely, but this is why any TACO deal would have to throw Israel under the bus Trump may be tempted to save himself but I imagine Israel would quickly derail any negotiations if they senses both sides were coming to an agreement I imagine the US will be forced to try and hurt Iran more before a peace treaty is palatable for Israel, otherwise Iran is negotiating from one of its strongest positions in decades

Long story short - any deal with Iran’s current regime will almost certainly be worse than what could have been achieved before the war. Tehran is now more radical, emboldened by what it sees as a historic achievement, standing firm against both the U.S. and Israel while still holding leverage over a critical artery of the global economy, without a clear American solution. The U.S. will have to offer significant concessions just to prevent further escalation, let alone secure the reopening of the Strait. And if Trump believes he can negotiate away Iran’s missile program or nuclear infrastructure, someone needs to tell him plainly: with the current regime in Tehran, that’s not going to happen. #IranWar‌

Yep, let's entertain the idea that talks are even happening some ideas of what Irans demands might be - Removal of US military assets from the gulf (hard rejection from the gulf) - Revitalisation of the JCPOA (hard no from israel) And here some things the gulf and Israel are likely to ask - Conplete denuclearisation and confiscation of nuclear material (hard no from Iran) - Cessation of proxy funding (hard no) Likely many other concessions will be demanded but these stick out of hard nos from the other side So even if negotiations were happening, there is very little hope they would be fruitful

My sense of things from a few conversations (an incomplete picture at best, of course): - messages exchanged via intermediaries, no proper negotiations yet (contra Trump) - Trump acting as if Iran has already made major concessions, no one believes that is the case - little optimism amongst regional officials that talks will succeed, given the enormous gap between the two sides - Iran has previously conveyed to intermediaries that it doesn't want to deal with Witkoff again, given past experience; hence the talk of Vance - if the talks don't happen or flop, Trump bought himself a few days to move military assets to the region, and perhaps a calmer stretch in oil markets

its original aim was regime change Khamenei has been replaced by khamenei They claim to have destroyed Irans military totally, yet Iran is still firing missiles at the gulf and israel they wanted to weaken the regimes yet ended up easing sanctions on Iran and filled it with hardliners the was is a total strategic and political failure, at best it was a tactical success

@ForeignAffairs No, the war has not backfired. The United States aimed to debilitate and neutralize Persian military capabilities, and it has achieved that objective.

“Very soon, Trump will face a choice between doubling down on an unpopular war or, to end it, wresting a concession from Israel that Iran could frame as a triumph,” writes Nate Swanson. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

@ForeignAffairs great piece. used it myself to help formulate my own thoughts regarding this war Trump doesn't know how to negoitate when on the back foot

@lrozen @RKhanizadeh It's a negotiation tactic I think by setting the narrative he can put pressure on states to follow along it worked with tariffs but it's unlikely to work here China was bound by the bond markets, but Iran is isolated from global finance

@RKhanizadeh How do you interpret this

Ghalibaf who was reported to be talking to the US denies the rumors as fake news.

@ejmalrai I think instead of making money he's trying not haemorrhage he clearly had no response in case of and oil and bond market panic

Donald Trump has the intention to make a lot of money next Monday.

@BRICSinfo Trump has lost control of the war I have outlined all of this in my article discussing Iran and the US' escalation trap so far my analysis has proved true so give it a read and follow if you want to be one step ahead of the globe

JUST IN: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says President Trump has "no authority to set terms or deadlines for negotiations."

@ejmalrai I don't think he even sees it as lying He's trying to set a narrative, talk negotiations into existence He's literally trying to "manifest" an open strait into existence someone take the zaza of this man

Donald Trump seems lying but we understand he wants a way out.

@BRICSinfo China is unlikely to be pleased about this One it's russia growing influence over Chinas neighbours Two it means Vietnam could potentially become a latent nuclear power

JUST IN: 🇷🇺🇻🇳 Russia officially signs deal with Vietnam to build its first nuclear power plant.

@EMckoul @billlycakes @KobeissiLetter I think it may already have Escalations are on pause but Iran released their next strikes and it included desalination plants so don't worry you're right to be concerned about water the gulf counties and Israel get up to 90% of their drinking water from desalination

@PolyLacuna @billlycakes @KobeissiLetter I am terrible at understanding this stuff to be honest. If things get extremely crazy, I bet the water in Iran gets targeted by someone even if it is a war crime.

BREAKING: Iran responds to President Trump's threat to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened "within 48 hours." Iran's response: 1. Iran will "completely close" the Strait of Hormuz 2. Iran will hit “vital” infrastructure in the Middle East 3. This includes energy, IT, and water desalination facilities 4. Iran’s senior military commander says the country’s military strategy has shifted from defensive to offensive 5. Iranian officials say the country has enough reserves of essential goods to last for up to one year Trump's deadline has 33 hours remaining.

@WarMonitor3 It's not negotiations when only one side talks It's schizophrenia

The speaker of the Iranian parliament who was reported to have talked with US officials has just denied the existence of talks...

@lrozen yeppp, bond markets were in panic and I think that made Trump uneasy Last weeks talk of the war ending soon, and today's talk of (one sided) negotiations are all attempts to ease markets when negotiations fall apart, i wonder what narrative he'll conjure next

this seems to be his message of the moment. one purpose of which seems market calming

@mdubowitz Last time the US and Iran were in negotiations, Tehran was hit with decapitation strikes I believe the diplomacy attempt is real, Trump wants to TACO but I think all parties involved understand they are unlikely to agree to either sides terms

What matters in these rumored talks: Are U.S. and Israeli military ops continuing without pause? Are Marines still moving into theater? If yes, diplomacy may be a cover to calm oil markets and set the table for the next phases of pressure, fracturing and opposition support.

@EMckoul @billlycakes @KobeissiLetter It's not that black and white Yes Iran relies on oil for most of its economy, but sanctions have hardened the regime making them more resilient and self reliant in times of economic stress unlike the US which is extremely sensitive to markets

@billlycakes @PolyLacuna @KobeissiLetter That sounds like it makes sense, but I don't really know enough to argue.

I called this in my latest article, talk of negotiations is bluster honestly it won't lead anywhere, neither side will be willing to meet the others demands

@adamscochran wow I genuinely called this The gulf countries will definitely reject this, negotiations will not work since no state will agree to either sides demands

lol "A closure of US bases in the Gulf" Yeahhh

@Osint613 trump throwing the Israelis also under the bus gives me schadenfreude Two of the most selfish, traitorous administrations somehow thought they could find allies in each other lol

Former Director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center Joe kent: “President Trump is working to get peace with Iran, if he can make this happen it will be a very good thing for our nation & our allies in the Gulf. The Israelis will be against this, but POTUS is strong & can get them on board.”

Trump sets narratives, it's important to remember that. it's what he did last week when he claimed "the war was over" and it's what he is doing now by claiming to be in negotiations with Iran He understands the pressure he's facing from markets and these comments are for them

@shanaka86 "Joint control" There are no negotiations, he isn't talking to Iran. He is just trying to pressure tehran into talks by setting the narrative The gulf would refuse a treaty like that

BREAKING: Donald Trump just said the Strait of Hormuz will be “jointly controlled, and maybe controlled by me and the Ayatollah.” The same man who 36 hours ago threatened to “obliterate” Iranian power plants now proposes co-managing the world’s most important oil chokepoint with the leader of the country he is bombing. In the same breath, Trump said: “It is not the Supreme Leader; nobody has heard from him, and we don’t know if he is living.” He is proposing to jointly control the strait with a man he simultaneously says may be dead. While Trump was saying this, the IDF confirmed it had just completed a “wide-scale wave of strikes” on Tehran using over 100 munitions. Targets included a Quds Force command post, an IRGC aerial defence headquarters, an IRGC Ground Forces headquarters in “a large military compound in the heart of Tehran,” a Quds Force intelligence headquarters, a Ministry of Defence naval cruise missile manufacturing site, and multiple ballistic missile, warhead, and electronics research facilities. The IDF reports it has destroyed approximately 330 of Iran’s estimated 470 ballistic missile launchers. Iranian fire has collapsed from 90 missiles per day on Day 1 to approximately 10. The IAF is now hunting the remaining 140. While Trump was saying this, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated for the third time today that there have been “no direct or indirect talks with Washington” and that Iran’s position on the Strait of Hormuz “has not changed in any way.” While Trump was saying this, Iran delivered the sentence that should be read by every head of state on Earth: “You struck our hospitals, we did not do the same. You struck our emergency centres, we did not do the same. You struck our schools, we did not do the same. But if you strike electricity, we will strike electricity.” That is not a threat. That is a ledger. Iran is publicly recording what it has NOT done to establish the legal and moral basis for what it WILL do. The ledger says: we absorbed hospitals. We absorbed schools. We absorbed emergency centres. Electricity is the line. Cross it and the regional grid becomes a battlefield. Every desalination plant. Every hospital ventilator. Every water treatment system in the Gulf that runs on power. Trump then claimed Iran agreed to hand over “nuclear dust.” He said “we’ve agreed to that.” Iran has agreed to nothing publicly. Trump is negotiating in public with a counterparty that says it is not at the table, proposing to share a strait with a leader whose existence he questions, claiming a nuclear deal that the other side has not acknowledged, while his air force drops 100 munitions on the capital of the country he says he is dealing with. Rosatom is evacuating Bushehr nuclear plant to a skeleton crew. The 5-day clock is ticking. The 140 remaining launchers are being hunted. The strait is closed. And the man who controls the world’s largest military just proposed co-managing the world’s most important waterway with a man who may not be alive to sign the agreement. The molecules do not negotiate with ghosts. The molecules wait. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@MyLordBebo israel attacked Iran before the deadline was due Netanyahu was also the one who pushed the war onto Trump according to NYT Israel needs the US in any war with Iran, I expect they will do what they can to derail negotiations

🇮🇱🇮🇷 "The Air Force has begun, a short while ago, another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran" — Israeli Air Force Well, that's one way to ruin the "negotiation process", right?