Laura Rozen

Plan B?

NEW: 2,200 Marines of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit are heading to the Middle East. USS Boxer and several other ships also en route, per administration official. The 2,200 Marines of the 31st MEU already heading there from Pacific deployment. Lots of Marines heading in.

Speaker Johnson says ground troops can be sent to Iran solely based on Trump's whim.

1/ Iranian activist: I am writing from Tehran, a city at war. The destruction has grown. So has the cost of living. Open internet now costs a million tomans per gigabyte. Real news has become a rare commodity. Let future generations know that we are living amid @barbaraslavin1

@Acyn @lrozen Disgraceful. open.substack.com/pub/jojofromje…

Update for Day 20 of the war

Ossoff: The president is sending out fundraising emails to his supporters featuring photos of American service members in flag draped coffins returning to their families after being killed in action.  It's the most callous and disgraceful disregard for the sacrifice that these service members have made. It gives the impression that the president and his team really do just view those who wear the uniform as pawns. It's completely disrespectful and completely unacceptable.  And in Georgia, we're a military state. We are proud to host some of the most important defense installations in the country. We are proud of those who serve and those who have served. And that kind of disrespect for the military does not go over well in Georgia.

Probably so. Repeating every mistake from US wars of choice from Vietnam, to Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya. Hopeless twits

They bought in heavy b2 and b52s for eid bombing of Tehran.

“The European view is that the result will be the opposite: Iran’s forces will escalate, using its surviving drones and missiles to destroy the vulnerable infrastructure of its neighbors, in what will become an existential battle.”

Boebert: I will not vote for a war supplemental. I am so tired of spending money elsewhere.

An X user in Iran: “The body's reaction after each bombing Both my hands start itching from the fingers to the elbows So much that I want to cut them off”

It didn’t have to be this way. The town drunk didn’t have to be disgracing America every day. @RogerWicker could have prevented this. But he was too weak to stand up to Jeffrey Epstein’s best friend. Many innocents will die because of Wicker’s cowardice.

US pump prices jump 30% since Middle East war began, headed toward $4 a gallon reut.rs/4bmO8Di reut.rs/4bmO8Di

“European officials … said that the military operations over the past few days were more evidence of Israel’s belief that if it can dismantle Iran’s main sources of revenue & decapitate its political, military & intelligence leadership, the country will devolve into what the Israelis call ‘state collapse.’ The European view is that the result will be the opposite: Iran’s forces will escalate, using its surviving drones and missiles to destroy the vulnerable infrastructure of its neighbors, in what will become an existential battle.”

F-35 made an emergency landing at a US air base in the Middle East after flying a combat mission over Iran. stripes.com/theaters/middl… ift.tt/gr9ALlR

Another blast heard now in Tehran.

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Jon Ossoff: Any time a president launches the country into war without clear objectives, without a stated plan... without any evidence of an imminent threat to our national security... before you know it, you're in much deeper than you ever planned.

NBC: Father of service member killed in Iran war says he never told Pete Hegseth to ‘finish’ the job nbcnews.com/politics/donal…

#Iran War Update No. 20 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹The Strait of Hormuz is being increasingly framed in Tehran as a tool of Iranian leverage rather than a temporary wartime tactic. Iranian officials are openly discussing a post-war regulatory regime, including transit fees and IRGC-controlled routing. At the same time, there are reports that a “safe corridor” system is already being implemented for selected countries through Iran’s territorial waters. 🔹Meanwhile, international efforts to counter this are taking shape. Six U.S. allies U.S. allies – the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the Netherlands – have signaled readiness to support maritime security operations in the strait, pointing toward a gradual internationalization of the waterway’s security. However, the exact form of their involvement remains unclear. 🔹Iran’s approach to escalation remains centered on vertical escalation rather than horizontal (expanding target types/categories). When Israel struck South Pars, Iran responded by targeting major energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. Continued strikes on U.S. bases follow the same pattern, i.e., response to attacks on Iranian military infrastructure. The focus so far has been on escalating within existing categories of targets, increasing scale and impact, rather than opening entirely new domains. 🔹This logic was reinforced by Iran’s strike on the Haifa refinery despite U.S. messaging against further energy targeting, underlining Tehran’s emphasis on enforcing its own red lines rather than accepting those imposed by the adversaries. 🔹According to Iranian expert commentaries, Iran’s current approach rests on three key elements: unpredictability, a “madman strategy,” and making threats to the enemy more credible; the latter reflected in shortened gap between warning and action, aimed at “correcting past misperceptions” caused by restraint. 🔹Energy infrastructure remains at the center of the conflict. Damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility has caused significant disruptions to global gas markets, with parts of the complex potentially requiring years to fully recover. 🔹At the same time, Iran continues to sustain its own exports. Oil shipments from Kharg Island remain ongoing at roughly 1.1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, while increased storage at Jask suggests preparation for prolonged disruption scenarios. 🔹The war is also driving new economic dynamics. Discussions in Washington about waivers for up to 140 million barrels of Iranian oil indicate mounting pressure to stabilize global energy markets, but Tehran signals it will continue prioritizing China as its main costumer. 🔹Militarily, the United States maintains that operations are progressing, with over 7,000 targets reportedly struck. However, Iranian assessments suggest U.S. operations are adapting under pressure, including greater reliance on stand-off strikes, regional bases, and long-range bomber missions from Europe. 🔹Israeli strikes continue to target Iran’s military-industrial base, including electronic industries in Shiraz, reflecting an ongoing effort to degrade Iran’s industrial ecosystem. 🔹At the same time, there are indications of Iranian tactical adaptation. Reports of an F-35 being hit, possibly through Surface-to-Air Missile ambush (SAMbush), have fueled discussion about improved survivability and evolving Iranian air defense tactics. 🔹Regionally, attacks on U.S. positions persist. Bases in Erbil and Bahrain have reportedly been targeted again by Iran and its Iraqi allies. 🔹Unconfirmed reports of rocket fire from Syrian territory toward the Golan Heights raise the possibility of another active front, although the scale and intent remain unclear. 🔹Tensions between Iran and the UAE have escalated sharply. Diplomatic relations are deteriorating, with visa suspensions, closures of Iranian institutions, and reports of embassy shutdowns signaling a significant breakdown in ties. 🔹Internal security pressures inside Iran remain high. Authorities continue arrests linked to “espionage” and insurgent activity, particularly in southeastern regions, reflecting ongoing concerns about internal destabilization alongside the ongoing war. 🔹Diplomatically, divisions within GCC persist. Oman continues to push for de-escalation, Qatar maintains a more balanced stance, while Saudi Arabia and especially the UAE are adopting increasingly confrontational positions toward Iran. 🔹China has maintained a cautious posture, emphasizing stability and energy security while avoiding alignment with either side. Beijing has so far refrained from calling directly on Iran to halt its attacks and instead, continues calling on all parties to end hostilities. 🔹Inside Iran, discussions about nuclear doctrine are re-emerging, including limited calls for weaponization or withdrawal from the NPT, although these remain on the margins for now. 🔹Overall, the war is increasingly being shaped by competing efforts to define the rules of escalation, with Iran attempting to formalize new realities on the ground – especially at the strait – while external responses remain fragmented and uncertain despite growing concern over maritime security.