Polymarket IQ - Analytics & Partners

ℹ️ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Is peace actually coming? ▫️Polymarket: Yes: 14% / No: 86% ▫️IQ Analytics: Yes: 23% / No: 77% Polymarket whales have been absolutely smashing the YES button the past 72 hours. "Yes" up from ~8-9¢ to 16¢ on the Trump "28-point plan" leak and the reported Thursday deadline. The dream of a quick Christmas ceasefire is alive for many. But is it actually realistic? 🔺 Why the current "YES" price is still a screaming buy at 14¢? 1️⃣ Trump has real leverage now. He has already drafted a detailed plan with Russian input, threatened to cut all military aid & intelligence if Zelensky doesn’t sign by ~Nov 27-28, and his team is openly says “take it or leave it” and Europe cannot fully replace U.S. support. 2️⃣ Ukraine’s battlefield situation is dire. They are running out of men, air defense, and money. 2025 is shaping up to be brutal without U.S. aid. Facing total collapse vs. a bad-but-signed deal? History shows leaders eventually choose the deal (see Afghanistan 2020, Vietnam 1973). Zelensky’s own party is already leaking that “we may have to accept reality”. 3️⃣ Putin wants the win before inauguration. He gets to freeze the current lines (huge territorial gains), lift some sanctions, rebuild economy, and claim victory. The 28-point plan is basically Moscow’s wishlist. Why would he say no when Trump is handing him everything on a silver platter? 🧊 Conclusion – The Cold RealityBarring Zelensky Growing a titanium spine overnight or Europe suddenly discovering unlimited money and missiles, an official ceasefire agreement (or at least a signed framework that qualifies under the rules) before December 31 is significantly more likely than the current 14¢ price suggests. 23% is our fair value, buying Yes at 14¢ is one of the highest-edge bets on the entire platform right now. Expected return +64% with only 38 days of duration risk. @Polymarket @Osinttechnical @NOELreports

@PolyBookie @Polymarket Nuggets are 6-3 vs PHX in the last 9 meetings (2-0 this season). Whale's betting the matchup edge.

A @Polymarket whale just bought $1,417 on Nuggets at 63c. polymarket.com/event/nba-den-…

@xK0neko Any updates on this topic? 🤔

gPoly any bets? #polymarket

@HiveLiveHQ Kalshi hitting $22B is impressive. Polymarket’s secondary valuation hit $11.6B in January. Turns out CFTC compliance commands a serious money.

Kalshi has raised a billion dollars at a $22 BILLION valuation This effectively doubles the company's valuation since its December 2025 raise, which priced the prediction market at $11 billion

@rb_tweets @Polymarket Min shares: 1000 and two-sided liquidity needed. Today we're farming with slightly bigger stakes.

$180k in LP rewards across top 3 markets on @Polymarket PROBABLY NOTHING

@_kate_lv @PolymarketSport Polymarket merch would definitely find a place in my wardrobe 🧢

@Nik_Poly This is a definite +EV opportunity. An APY of this level combined with this risk profile is always worth taking.

I am risking $12.415 to profit $585 on whether the Iranian regime will fall before March 31. That's 300% APY💸

@PolymarketIntel Handing US LNG exporters their biggest windfall since 2022. American cargoes to Asia just became priceless.

QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the largest export terminal for LNG in the world producing about 20% of the world’s LNG supply has suffered extensive damage due to an Iranian missile attack. One of two gas-to-liquid (GTL) facilities and 2 of 14 LNG trains were damaged in the attack. QatarEnergy's CEO stated that the damage wiped out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for three to five years.

@tsybka @PolymarketTrade Kremlin control is solid, and predictions about "Putin dying soon" have no real basis. The only credible path to YES is an unexpected health issue, making this a clear +EV bet.

Kind degens happily continue filling my limit orders, believing that some miracle can remove Putin from the post of President. But I remain a realist, and it’s hard to believe in that. During this time, I increased my position to 39k shares. A good long-term investment.

@n0rulesnvr LP farming looks like a solid bet. Sponsored rewards make the overall picture even more attractive, and Polymarket appears to value them highly.

Wrapped up another successful day of reward farming on Polymarket. Been taking some small losses but surely the $POLY allocation for market makers like me will pay it back. I will soon share a guide with all my secret LPing alpha. Like and subscribe if you don't want to miss it.

@Osint613 After weeks of full-scale war, their missile barrages mostly scatter cluster munitions on civilian areas while Israel's precision strikes keep dismantling IRGC HQs, refineries, and now South Pars itself.

Iran FM Aragachi: “Our response to Israel's attack on our infrastructure employed FRACTION of our power. The ONLY reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation. ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again. Any end to this war must address damage to our civilian sites.”

@MOSSADil 32 zones show meticulous planning, echoes of how Israel quietly mapped & neutralized Iraq's Osirak reactor in '81 before it went hot. Precision + coordination still wins wars.

🚨 REPORT: Iran has been divided into multiple operational zones—reportedly 32—across which Israeli and U.S. aircraft either operate separately or in concert, depending on mission requirements. Officials also state that the attack on Iran’s South Pars gas and oil fields was closely coordinated with U.S. forces, with strategic alignment on timing and targeting to maximize disruption of Iranian regime revenue sources and infrastructure while managing broader escalation risks. Follow @MOSSADil for continued updates on the strategic framework of Israel–U.S. operations in Iran.

South Pars/North Dome is the single largest natural gas field on Earth, shared with Qatar. Hitting Iran's side risks cascading outages across the whole reservoir. Last comparable energy-infrastructure strike ( Gulf War '91 ) took ~18 months for production to normalize. Buckle up.

Stocks in decline at opening bell after oil surges on Trump threat — follow live trib.al/uUQzazT

@TradeandMoney Absolutely beautiful! The last few weeks have really offered some excellent opportunities. Smart timing catching this rally 📊

The oil market has been kind

@CryptoMichNL 2018 December FOMC deja vu: that exact reaction marked the cycle bottom before the 300% run. History rhyming?

It's interesting to see that; - Oil is up - Gas is up - Gold is down 4% - Indices are down a few percent - #Bitcoin is down 3.5% I must say, that with all the uncertainties that are arising in the world (and unfortunately so), Bitcoin holds up quite strongly on FOMC day. I was under the impression that we'd see a deeper correction taking place if markets did tank the way they did. Quite the opposite. Doesn't say that we don't need to see a crash in the coming days, but overall, for today, I'm not unhappy.

@AlphaxonP @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade @betmoardotfun This clean green streak is beautiful to watch. Hat tipped 🎩

+7.24K in 2 weeks — every single day green in a row on bonds

@j0xnah @Polymarket Spot on, Jonah. This is already Polymarket’s third acquisition since February, Brahma’s $1B+ volume since 2021 instantly unlocks real liquidity depth for long-tail niche events.

the @Polymarket acquisition of Brahma is a pretty clear signal imo you don't consolidate infrastructure and tuck away the blockchain friction unless you are preparing to scale very rapidly feels like just another massive hint that $POLY is right around the corner

@AshCrypto 1971: Nasdaq births the world's first electronic stock market. 2026: tokenized settlement gets SEC greenlight. The revolution never stops.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 SEC approves Nasdaq rule change to enable tokenized securities trading.

@syanovee I’ve had much good results going for those “sleeping” markets where the reward/competition ratio feels balanced and there’s still plenty of time until resolution. Makes it way easier to just set limit orders and actually relax instead of monitoring 24/7.

Top 10% of Polymarket LPs in just 4 days Started with just $500. > rank: 6358 > $70 earned in rewards Made some mistakes and took a few L’s along the way. Biggest mistake was farming markets I didn’t understand and getting filled because of poor management. Pausing LP for now. Guess it’s time to get back to trading.

@Polymarket Applying for ESTA and dusting off the passport right now...

We're excited to announce 'The Situation Room' by Polymarket is coming to Washington, D.C. The world's first bar dedicated to monitoring the situation. 🧵

@WatcherGuru At current crude levels this pump-price creep is almost entirely downstream → refiners printing money again.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Average US gas prices rise to $3.85 for the first time since September 2023.