Denis John Charles
949 posts
Denis John Charles
@Portfoliodiary
Investing
New York, NY Katılım Haziran 2017
346 Takip Edilen163 Takipçiler
@orrdavid What will you say if Trump unilaterally withdraws with Hormuz closed ?
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Lots of people thought Ukraine shouldn't fight back against Russia. Or that Israel should just accept being viciously attacked by Hamas and Hezbollah and not fight back. And now lots of people think the world should just be hostage to the IRGC.
In every case these people are dead wrong. There is no good endgame from any of those world views, and it says a lot about someone's moral character to have those views. I wouldn't trust those people to do business with them.
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@SeanParnellASW Oh man you guys are so dim and arrogant. What a disastrous clusterfuck
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America’s strength is undeniable—
Our ships are more powerful.
Our weapons are more lethal.
Our warriors are armed to the teeth with everything they need to dominate and win.
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@zriboua i wouldn't believe a word that comes out of Hegseth's mouth. there is a man totally out of his depth
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It is simply inconceivable to do dynamic targeting if you don’t have two critical things: air superiority, massive and high quality intel. U.S. has both.
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Pete Hegseth said this morning that U.S. is doing dynamic targeting. In other words, that U.S. has infiltrated the regime so much and so fast that they can update their list of targets in real time. IRGC can come on X and make posts about how smart they are all they want, but military situation doesn’t lie.
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@JC_ParetsX if you go high early that sets the expectations accordingly. low ball it
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My daughter lost her first tooth today. Where’s the line between good parenting and good monetary policy? I’m hearing the Tooth Fairy CPI includes a first-tooth premium. Kind of like an IPO. Then it normalizes? What’s the going rate in the Northeast to stay competitive but fair?
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@zriboua do you believe if Trump pulls out now without SoH being reopened that it would be a strategic disaster for the US?
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China’s biggest problem after this operation will be its relationship with Gulf countries. Building up Iran’s capabilities, providing them with intel, and arming them to the teeth will have consequences. Selling/buying oil is one thing, giving China access to better deals is another.
open.substack.com/pub/zinebribou…
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These two pipelines alleviate around half of the crude oil bottleneck for Hormuz.
They were built before fracking changed global oil equation.
The more I study it, the more I realize the world was well prepared for this blockade. I mean, we sure had a long time to prepare for a very known and obvious threat. And then we had the fracking revolution come on top of that.
Zoom out and really think on that big picture wise.
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@orrdavid Isn’t the oil price more or less a global price though?
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I still think its premature to 'go shopping' in open ended situations (see various tweets), but I do think by the end of the summer, should prob have a good list of 8-10 names / themes to be ready to pounce and own for the next 3-5 years with the obvious backdrop of improving / inflecting direction of numbers
My working list:
You will want some gold (pref physical) like $PHYS
Prob want some Bezos exposures (retail, space, AI, etc) re $AMZN
Senior living (see tweets). I own a single name here already re $SNDA, and want to wait for the $BKD convert/cap raise before revisitting. Think SNDA r/r is mid 20s by mid 50s followed by an exit catalyst
Was turned on to $VOYG by a super sharp pal. I would qualify this as high risk. Seems worth some time.
Cannabis: I like the disruptor in the space, but I think having a basket can also make sense (caveat: I think reform/regulation for many names in the space is no bueno, but this is prob a few years out)
Think onshoring transport exposure looks compelling, but not sure how to play this yet...
Let me know what you think re names/themes
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@girltummyfan He's just honest about who people are, rather than treating everyone by political alignment.
Some people are great, even if you disagree with their politics.
Some people are evil, even if you agree with them on politics.
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The brash way Trump reacts to his opponents’ deaths makes his more solemn reaction to RBG’s death even funnier by comparison
Faytuks Network@FaytuksNetwork
Trump: I'm glad Robert Mueller is dead
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@insane_analyst @fabknowledge love your work and love that you've made some real coin
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You know what, sure. I donated $10K to the autism charity because of losing a bet with @fabknowledge. Another ~1K in tax for fellow retards is fine.
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@Citrini7 airlines and banks were up last week, staples / tobacco underperformed. Hard to understand
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I kind of knew the market would go lower when we posted that we reduced our longs by 30% when SPX was like 6800 and the next session when it went to 6830 we already had like ten people on twitter attempting to dunk on us.
That being said, some dips are getting interesting now…
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@orrdavid @John_Hempton Sounds like regime is changing to more hardline sadly
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@John_Hempton And meanwhile, he's by far my favorite president in a very long time. And if he achieves regime change in Iran, one of the best US presidents ever.
Hell, he got the Europeans to finally defend themselves.
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An obvious comment on US Foreign Policy:
US foreign policy is self-defeating.
a. spend a year beating up on allies, threatening to take land (Greenland) from a NATO ally
b. wage a trade war against your allies. Sure the tariffs were illegal - but the beggar-thy-neighbour policy did not engender friends
c. start a war of choice in the Middle East. This may or may not have been justified (I lean towards justified) and it may or may not have been wise and winnable (I really do not have an opinion)
d. ask your allies for help and
e. get upset when they do not oblige - whilst forgetting about a and b above.
The geopolitical realignment is astonishing. All my life Australia has had one foreign policy - which is to internationalise the corpses in all American wars. If America asks us to go to war we go. And we go fast.
This time the Australian Government (to general approval) has refused to send a ship to the Gulf. (They have not been formally asked - but they made clear a rejection was coming.)
After a) and b) above aligning yourself with America is becoming political poison in a democracy.
I think this is VERY bad. The world has been well served by the American alliances that won the cold war and mostly kept a functional global order. Those alliances have been sacrificed to Trump's egotistical whims. The world is a less safe place now.
And it is less safe not just for America's (former?) allies but also for America.
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As some of you know, my dad has been fighting lung cancer for the past 2 years. If any of you have any experience with the medical system, you know that the family/patient have to be aggressive advocates. Doctors have a lot of patients and, as much as I’m sure they’d like to, don’t have infinite time.
It’s been pretty amazing to see how AI has enabled my mom to be an advocate by translating medical terminology and explaining complex issues. Definitely makes things a lot easier and has made the entire process more manageable. Whenever we get a new test result, she puts it into chat GPT or Claude and (especially now that it has memory) it updates her on what’s going on. Incredibly helpful and really has maximized the communication with his team.
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@AndreasSteno Maybe… predictions on this are no better than guesses at this point
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I honestly think Trump wanted to taco already early this week. It’s just difficult to do so when it takes two to taco.
Iran was not willing to play ball—and why should they be? They have likely just secured the regime another decade.
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@HostileCharts By messy do you mean downside skew or choppy? Thanks!
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Stating “the market is messy” doesn’t contradict the fact that ~100 of 5,000 stocks look good.
It supports it.
That’s ~2% of the market.
And most of those names are in the same areas anyway, so owning all of them isn’t diversification.
It’s the same trade in different tickers.
That’s literally what a messy market looks like.
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@patrick_oshag it's weird how us Americans always seem to forget that ASML is in the Netherlands, which is part of Europe, and makes arguably the most technologically advanced & complex product of all time
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I agree. Like 1929 over.
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer
okay no memeing i think it's fucking over
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@orrdavid But in Iran we could, probably will, now see absolute bloody chaos with god knows what consequences. Isn’t that a key difference between the two?
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If someone is in favor of US support for Ukraine but they're against US intervention in Iran, they're likely in a tribal trance. They should snap out of it!
If this is you, to make this easier, do this thought experiment: What if Iran started sending these "shahed" drones to Ukraine, to be used against the Russian invaders?
If your knee jerk reaction is something like, "Yeah but you don't know that!" or "That won't happen!", pause again. Instead of completely dismissing this outcome, apply a probability. Even a 10% probability. And then think of the less optimsitic but still good outcome. That at least Iran stops sending these to Russia. That's also got a solid, even higher probability.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa
Events in the Middle East and the Gulf region are unfolding extremely rapidly. Unfortunately, Ukraine knows all too well what this is about. Although Ukrainians never threatened Iran, the Iranian regime chose to become Putin’s accomplice and supplied him with “shahed” drones, and not only the drones themselves, but also the technologies to produce them. Iran also provided other weapons to Russia. Over the course of this full-scale war, Russia has used more than 57,000 shahed-type attack drones against the Ukrainian people, cities, and energy infrastructure. Other nations have also suffered from Iranian-backed terror. Therefore, it is fair to give the Iranian people a chance to rid themselves of a terrorist regime and to guarantee security for all nations that have suffered from terror originating in Iran. Our position is well known, and Ukraine has stated it repeatedly, including recently. It is important to preserve as many lives as possible. It is important to prevent the war from expanding. It is important that the United States is acting decisively. Whenever there is American resolve, global criminals weaken. This understanding must also come to the Russians. People cannot know the day or the hour, yet every act of evil, terror, and aggression against neighbors ultimately meets a just response. We expect that, in the end, the Middle East region will become safer and more stable. Much has already changed toward that goal. Ukraine is ready to help every nation so that security and justice increase, and terrorist regimes decrease.
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@AndreasSteno I am surprised the Iranians are still escalating given he and 40 top leaders are dead
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