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Krishna Hegde
7.9K posts
Krishna Hegde
@PositiveGamma
FinTech, Markets, India, Food, Asia. Trust Only Data. Bengaluru Boy. Farmer. hegde.eth
Katılım Ağustos 2014
751 Takip Edilen6.8K Takipçiler
Had previously expected USD 75-100 bn of FCNR deposits by end September. Given RBI's update, think we are well on track to hit that.
In 2013, the scheme was open for ~3 months. With 6 week to closure, 30% of the total amount had been collected - i.e collections were very backloaded (Thanks @RahulBajoria_ for the info).
This time around, FCNR scheme is open for almost 4 months. So, in next 2+ months, can easily see USD 60bn-80bn of incremental FNCR flows.
India's credit rating is better than 2013. Size of economy & remittances are much larger. USD 75-100 bn of FCNR is higher than what most people expect and can be a huge boost to the banking system & domestic liquidity.
Krishna Hegde@PositiveGamma
Banks in India that can put together a fully digital FCNR deposit journey (onboarding, deposit etc) will be able to gain huge deposits in coming months. Expect USD FCNR rates to be close to Indian Rupee deposit rates. So, SFBs can offer 7% for 5 year USD FCNR. Given the size of Indian disapora & digital savvy - expect USD 75-100 bn of FCNR deposits by end September.
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Effect of Kimi K3 is visible on the stock prices of Z.AI (HKG: 2513), MiniMax (HKG: 0100), Alibaba & China Merchants Direct (HKG: 0133). Softbank effect will probably be clearer tomorrow (TSE closed today).
After all this, if anyone says Anthropic & OpenAI valuations are unaffected, I have a bridge to sell you.
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Years ago, when I started on my role as a bank analyst, my senior asked me
'Do you know why banks have the most prominent buildings with interiors & exteriors that signify stability?'
Then he proceeded to answer - that is because a customer typically walked into a bank with a wad of cash and walked out with a piece of paper that said the bank had the customer's cash. So, the bank buildings needed to convince the customer that the bank was a good custodian for the bank's cash.
Maxfield on Banks@MaxfieldOnBanks
The tallest building on the most important corner in most small towns in America was typically built to be a bank. Elum State Bank building — Cle Elum, Washington — founded in 1904, it was acquired by Seattle Trust & Savings Bank in 1970, which was acquired by Key Bank in 1987, which subsequently sold the branch to Umpqua Bank, which merged with Columbia Bank in 2023.
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@pHequals7 @AndrewCurran_ It is interesting to see how the newer deals are coming with shorter exit periods. Lesser conviction on both sides about need for the compute, pricing or ability to pay for it ?
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After Elon signed his compute-as-a-service deal with Anthropic, the question was who would Mark Zuckerberg back? We may have our answer. The NYT says Anthropic proposed the two year deal in June, META is considering it, and they are currently in discussions.
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@abidsensibull e-Mandates for Mutual Fund SIPs are feeling ignored...
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So many recurring revenue business models are alive in India only because most people don’t know how to turn off credit card and UPI auto-pay mandate
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Alternate headline.. participants in crypto derivatives are 2x-3x more likely to make profits compared to equity derivatives!
Just putting below tweet in context since SEBI has already said 9 out of 10 investors in equity derivatives lose money.
Chandra R. Srikanth@chandrarsrikant
Internal data from local platforms, provided on the condition of anonymity, suggest that around 70 to 80 per cent of participants in the crypto derivatives space are incurring losses. This shift comes as daily transaction values on domestic exchanges are estimated to have surged to nearly $5 billion. These losses mirror the retail-led downturns seen in the equity derivatives sector. Individual investors spearhead roughly 70 percent of all crypto futures activity, bearing the brunt of these market setbacks.
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@dugalira Do we have details on how the pace of ramp up compared to the previous scheme?
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Early inflows into FCNR suggest about $10 billion has come in, about a month into the scheme.
Most people expect the flows to be back-ended, with money coming in closer to the August-September. Scheme runs till Sept 30 for now.
reuters.com/world/india/in…
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If your private banker did not give you an allocation in the SpaceX IPO, it may soon be time to thank them for the favour and send across some flowers/chocolates.
SpaceX stock price is dangerously close to IPO price & the first lock up expiry has not happened yet!
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The stance on IT has started becoming accommodative on news channel ;)
Gurgaon, India 🇮🇳 English
Krishna Hegde retweetledi
Ravi Mattu had legend status at IIMA, for having pioneered recruiting directly from IIMs for capital markets roles in NY, London, Tokyo, HK. He personally led Lehman's recruiting team to campus in late 90s, early 2000s. Did more to get desis onto Wall Street than anyone else.
linkedin.com/posts/iima-iim…
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Between Alex Karp & Satya Nadella comments, every enterprise adopter of a closed source model should be answering two questions
a. How much of their IP has already leaked out to the model
b. How quickly can they change course
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@PositiveGamma Try to buy the stuff with no sellers and then sell when there lots of buyers around news that is finally reflected in the price. Incredibly hard to do, but it works.
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There are two kinds of Indian microcaps with low liquidity.
a. Where there are no sellers
b. Where there are no buyers
Knowing the difference makes all the difference.
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Krishna Hegde retweetledi
@PositiveGamma For me it's only positive in the short term.
As of rn my thesis is the tens of thousands in India's leetcode to FAANG pipeline will replace the millions in Indian IT at a 5X comp jump. Maybe more. Bottom falls out of the trad IT/GCC talent market. But 5 yr horizon.
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@ponnappa Thanks a lot for detailed reply. Very positive vs a lot of the narrative.
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No drastic change, I think. It's more likely on 5yr horizon. Contraction for sure.
In such giant enterprises as these and their customers deals last 2-3 years and none of them will meaningfully adopt AI that soon. It's a people problem.
Until someone delivers a working AI native alternative at comparable scale nothing will move fast.
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imo we are going to see a certain specific pattern play out that we can reasonably predict.
the question to ask is: based on analogous situations in the past, what kind of naive mental shortcuts will hands-off managements teams take? and as a consequence, what kind of biz decisions will follow?
decision makers who don't understand the contours of agentic workflows, including the human in the loop.
gxjo@gxjo_dev
Entire team got laid off due to Claude Fable 5
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The interesting aspects of this earnings season in Indian stocks for me
a. How much has bench strength shrunk in Indian IT services? (When there is no frenzy for hiring & AI makes it quicker to deploy people - bench should shrink, boosting margins)
b. How much of a boost will Treasury income give Indian banks? (A 30 bp drop in 10 year government bond yield - should allow for solid y/y increase in Treasury income)
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Krishna Hegde retweetledi
8 days in July - NIFTY IT has outperformed NIFTY 50 by 4.7%.
Recent outperformance is not a prediction of future returns.
Krishna Hegde@PositiveGamma
Indian IT Services outperforming NIFTY by 10% in September quarter is an outcome that could catch many active portfolio managers by surprise (given positioning). Also, if that does happen, the outperformance won't stop at 10% - coz of the stampede back into the sector.
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