Predictbook

The Fed's 29th July decision market became even more lucrative now. The ROI on "No Change" increased from 11.11% to 26.58% when choosing YES. This is extremely mispriced.

Still one of the easiest markets to bet on and win consistently. Just bet on Anthropic.

If Toghrul’s analysis is correct, one asymmetric opportunity in the Bitcoin July Polymarket is buying the $80,000 outcome at 1.4c. Here's why. As Bitcoin’s spot price approaches $70,000, the probability of the $80,000 outcome rises, which should push the contract price from 1.4c closer to 2c or higher. In practical terms, that implies a near 2x return before resolution. Of course, this is not a hold-to-expiry bet. You need to exit manually as the probability reprices. Holding until resolution will likely end badly.

Polymarket is giving away more than 11% and here's why. The Fed is unlikely to raise rates or even lower them, which you can easily see on Polymarket. "No change" is priced at 90%. That's because the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently signaled a "wait and see" stance, and inflation is still running above target while the labor market holds up, leaving no urgent case for either a cut or a hike. At its most recent meeting, we perfectly predicted a 31.68% trade opportunity as Warsh held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and explicitly cited "elevated uncertainty," with the Committee stating it wants more time to navigate the balance between growth, labor strength, and inflation risk from supply shocks. Since then, May's PCE inflation data came in at a three-year high, but economists noted it didn't show clear evidence that underlying price pressure is re-accelerating. It mainly reflected a temporary fuel price spike due to the Iran-US war. Hence, the odds of a hike have cooled from 40.6% in mid-June to 10% today. The possible timeline is around September-October, when odds are already sitting around 80%. Warsh has talked tough on getting inflation back to 2%, but the Fed's own dot plot points to "one hike before year-end." So, it doesn't mean July specifically as you understand. Cuts are basically off the table too. A cut needs either a sharp inflation drop or real labor market weakness, and neither has shown up. Job gains are keeping pace with the workforce, and unemployment has "changed little". Cutting now would look premature and contradict the Fed's own stated priority of restoring price stability

After the controversial Ronaldo cry market, the Zelensky suit, and the mineral deal, this is the next Polymarket bet where most people will lose money. Each of those disasters had the same anatomy. Traders bet on the question they thought they were answering. The rules answered a different one, and resolution wiped out everyone who never scrolled past the title. The Russian parliamentary election market is next in that lineage, $14.4 million of volume and counting. On the surface it's a no-brainer. United Russia holds 321 of 450 Duma seats. Seeing it priced at 55%, with New People, a five-year-old party, polling 13%, at 39% to beat it, looks like the market has lost its mind. Then you read the rules. The market doesn't resolve to the party that wins the most seats. It resolves to the party that gains the most seats compared to before the election. This is a completely different interpretation from the market's title. And, like it or not, many will fall for the trap and lose.

A Polymarket trader, Bertapotamous, won $188,969.46 by betting that Ronaldo would cry. He started buying "Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?" after the other traders had dropped the price from 68c to below 20c. He had 147 separate fills over 2 days and accumulated 189,064 shares at an average entry price of 24.5 cents. After 2 UMA disputes, the Oracle ruled the market as a YES, and the market pumped to 100c.