Predictbook

I found a way to make 23.76% on Polymarket In the 2026 World Cup winner market, top 8 sum up to 80.8c. Each of those contracts pays out exactly $1 if that team wins the World Cup. So if you buy Yes on all 8, you've spent 80.8c, and the moment any one of those 8 teams lifts the trophy in July, you collect a full $1. That's 23.76% in 6 months. Try getting that from a savings account. Why does this gap exist, and why hasn't it been arbitraged to zero? Because it isn't actually free money. Those 8 teams are not the entire field. There are 48 teams in this World Cup. The market is telling you that there's roughly a 19% chance the winner is nobody on that list (Morocco, Croatia, USA, etc.). But let’s be honest, neither Morocco, Croatia, nor the USA will win the tournament, so this is essentially a risk-free trade.

@0xgiyux @PB_Signal No, it doesn't. It's thinner than that, but still profitable

ARBITRAGE ALERT | Polymarket × Kalshi | POLITICS Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? YES Polymarket @ 0.4 NO Kalshi @ 0.49 Spread: 11% Join @Predictbook Telegram channel for more. Link in bio.

Iran: I want A, B, and C USA: No way, bro. Accept my D, E, and F Iran: Nah, bro, can't do that. Only A, B, and C Repeat forever until one side caves. Iran is probably stalling to build a nuke, which is a guaranteed survival insurance for it. Nobody is going to invade you if you have a nuke. Nobody is going to change your regime. On the other hand, the United States is unlikely to accept a deal in which Trump accepts such a significant defeat. Stalemate. x.com/Predictbook/st…

BREAKING: Iran says contrary to what the US claims, the now fully leaked "Memorandum of Understanding" contains no Iranian commitments to hand over nuclear stockpiles, remove equipment, shut down nuclear facilities, or even commit to not build a nuclear bomb. Instead, all nuclear issues are deferred to a 60 day period of negotiations after signing, per Fars News. For this period to start, the US would need to accept no nuclear commitments from Iran, agree to release $100 billion of Iranian frozen assets, lift the naval blockade, lift all oil and petrochemical sanctions during the negotiation period, pay $270 billion in war reparations, and accept Hormuz under "full permanent sovereign Iranian management and authority" at pre-war traffic levels with no US presence.

Anthropic crushed Google's multi-month dominance in February and hasn't looked back since. Google was winning until people actually started using Gemini at scale. Then Google panicked about costs and nerfed its own model. OpenAI does basically the same thing that Google does. They swap expensive models for cheaper ones while charging the same price. GPT-5 feels like GPT-3.5 now. Grok gets only two things right: real-time research and Image and video generation. Everything else is super weak. So, where does this leave us? Claude. You can earn 30.38% (100c/76.7c) in just one month. It’s highly unlikely that any model will surpass Claude’s capabilities within the next 30 days. Its advancements are simply too far ahead of its competitors. If you’re skeptical, try using each of these models for yourself, and you’ll gain a better understanding.

The S&P 500 needs 14 months to hit 12% returns, but you could grab that in one week. You don't need to be a geopolitics expert to know Iran will never surrender their enriched uranium in a week. Easy money.

@Kalshi_Crypto Literally a couple of days ago 👇 x.com/Kalshi_Crypto/…

BREAKING: Our traders forecast Bitcoin will NOT hit $100,000 this year

@FirstSquawk Yeah... no, you will not. x.com/Predictbook/st…

TRUMP: WE'RE GOING TO GET INTEREST RATES DOWN QUICKLY

Another risk-free arbitrage opportunity on Polymarket and Kalshi Buy No on Polymarket at 40c + Buy Yes on Kalshi at 55c = 95c total. That's roughly +5.3% return on a locked position regardless of outcome, assuming both markets resolve the same way on the same question. On a $10,000 deployed, that is ~$530 risk-free.

Everyone's still waiting for Fed cuts, but I've got sad news for you. The CME FedWatch data doesn't match the mainstream narrative at all. June meeting: 96.6% probability rates stay exactly where they are at 350-375. By December, the market is pricing a hike as more likely than a cut, with a nearly 51% chance of an increase. By early 2027, that climbs to 60-70%. This is a full reversal from where we were six months ago. In February, people were pricing 50% odds of a third cut in 2026.

@TheGreekTrader @Polymarket well, the weighted volume formula is optimized for platform health. Polymarket needs liquid markets on uncertain outcomes because that's where the price discovery actually matters at the end of the day It's totally rational from their side

New big hint on the $POLY airdrop formula just dropped from Polymarket. We already knew trading volume would be one of the criteria and now we have a much clearer idea of how it may be calculated: wV = Trade Size × (1 − Entry Price) × Category Weight The key part here is the Entry Price. A lot of people farmed millions in volume by buying shares at 99% or 99.9%, so this is really bad news for bonders. Most of that volume will end up having barely any weight.

Nolan's films never get postponed, except Tenet, and that was COVID-19 forcing his hand. There's currently a 7.5% return (100c/93c) sitting uncaptured on Kalshi, just waiting to be pocketed in 2 months. That's 42% annualized

While boomers are busy buying SoftBank or Google shares just to get indirect exposure to pre-IPO giants, @Polymarket already has something better. This is what the future of finance actually looks like.

Do you believe Polymarket’s prediction that it’s unlikely for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 this year is accurate or incorrect?

Remember what we said about the election trades on Polymarket. If one option is drastically higher than the rest, that's free money. Armenia's Parliamentary Election Winner market has Civil Contract at 93%. That's a 7.52% ROI in just 2.5 weeks.

🏀 NBA Championship Opportunity on Polymarket Buy Yes on OKC Thunder (42¢) + San Antonio Spurs (37.3¢). That's 79.3¢ combined, covering 79.3% of the probability. If either wins, you pocket $1, a guaranteed 20.7¢ or 26.1% profit, regardless of which one takes the trophy. OKC is the reigning 2025 champion. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player alive right now. Best defense in the league, deepest roster, proven championship DNA. They're the #1 seed for a reason. San Antonio has Victor Wembanyama, who is an alien. 30pts, 15reb, 5blk in the playoffs. The New York Knicks haven't won a title since the 1970s. The Cleveland Cavaliers are a bottom-10 defense in the entire NBA.

@CoinMarketCap Remember, most IPOs are bad investments

LATEST: ⚡ The SEC proposed its biggest IPO rule overhaul in more than 20 years, aiming to make it easier for newly public companies to raise more money soon after listing.

@WhaleInsider You know he doesn't do it right? It's his financial advisor or advisors doing it. Also, he traded 3742 stocks. He is basically like a walking ETF

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump traded stocks over 3,700 times in Q1 2026 - averaging 59 trades per day, 9 per hour, or one trade every 7 minutes.

Most are still calling for $OIL to reach $150. Prediction markets disagree. Polymarket has $150 WTI priced at just 2% probability, $147 oil was a once-in-a-generation event back in 2008. However, most oil flows have more or less stabilized today. As Dyatlov said in Chernobyl: "Not bad, not terrible." And yet people are still extremely biased and want to be contrarian, even though they are simply wrong.

Theo4 is arguably the greatest trader Polymarket has ever seen. He turned the 2024 elections into a $22M payday, then did something almost no one in trading ever does: walked away. Compare that to Christopher DeVocht, who transformed $60K into $400M, only to lose nearly all of it within 3 years. The hardest skill in trading isn't finding the right trade, but it's knowing when you're done. Looks like Theo4 figured that out early on.

We found one of the best Polymarket traders. By simply doing the exact opposite of what he does, you’ll win a lot. He is currently down just $2.61 million. What’s a couple of millions among friends, am I right?