Predictive Labs

Our Founder & CEO @johann_evrard joined @StockBoxMedia alongside @eddybitcoin (CEO @CoinsiliumGroup) for a conversation on where prediction markets are heading next. The conversation follows Coinsilium’s continued investment and the unveiling of @nijinn_official, our discovery terminal for prediction markets. Early access begins later this month. The rest of what’s coming and when was discussed in the conversation. Watch the full podcast to hear it all. Link in comments.

Full conversation: youtube.com/watch?v=klr-32…

Our Founder & CEO @johann_evrard joined @StockBoxMedia alongside @eddybitcoin (CEO @CoinsiliumGroup) for a conversation on where prediction markets are heading next. The conversation follows Coinsilium’s continued investment and the unveiling of @nijinn_official, our discovery terminal for prediction markets. Early access begins later this month. The rest of what’s coming and when was discussed in the conversation. Watch the full podcast to hear it all. Link in comments.

Read the full announcement: ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/coinsilli…

Big milestone for Predictive Labs. We’re excited to share continued support from @CoinsiliumGroup, following the successful achievement of key development milestones. This momentum comes alongside the unveiling of @nijinn_official, our flagship product. Nijinn is a discovery terminal for prediction markets, bringing data across venues into one place, making it easier to read, compare, and act on what the market is actually saying. We’ll be opening early access at Wiki Finance Expo (Hong Kong), with a broader rollout planned in the coming months. Read the full PR in the comments. More to come.

Every asset class that grows up gets an intelligence layer before it gets big. Stocks got the terminal. Crypto got the aggregators. Prediction markets crossed into a real asset class and skipped the step. nijinn is that step: the front door to prediction markets, one place that reads across every venue at once. The venues talk past each other, the same event can settle under different rules in different places, and none of them can show you more than its own book. Nijinn favours none of them, which is the only honest way to show the whole board. Predictive Labs is building the intelligence layer behind it. nijinn.io

The wait is over. Say hello to nijinn. 🧞✨ The gateway prediction markets never had. nijinn is a discovery terminal for prediction markets. 📡 Turning noise into signal. 🧩 Every platform. Every market. Every price. One way in: nijinn. It pulls the prices, the sentiment, and the moves together from every venue, straight from the source, so the opportunity you'd have missed is the one you see first. 📊 No more juggling browser tabs, spreadsheets, and metrics you cobbled together yourself. Built for the curious, the analysts, the traders. More features. More partnerships. More integrations. This is day one. Welcome to nijinn. nijinn.io Built by @Predictive_Labs. #nijinn #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting #MarketIntelligence

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July 14 is almost here. We've got something to share. Stay close.

We’ve been building in silence. Now it’s almost time to show you why. July 14. The wait ends. Follow us to be in the Pioneer Circle.

Second part of my interview by I. Ajibade for @nadanews_com, to discuss Insider trading and the future scale of Prediction Markets. nadanews.com/358656/

Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of prediction markets, event-driven finance, and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉Thanks to the World Cup 👉Kalshi Doubles Valuation in Weeks 👉Well Above $1 Billion 👉Predictive Labs CEO Johann Evrard to Attend NEXTPredict Summit in New York 📈 Industry Pulse 👉Meta and Kalshi… 👉Solana’s World 👉X Integrates MCP 👉Upwork for AI Agents 💸 Capital Signals 💰 Thanks to the World Cup Prediction markets had their biggest month of the year in June, with combined trading volume across Kalshi and Polymarket reaching $44.8 billion, up 75% from $25.7 billion in May. The surge was largely driven by interest in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kalshi led the growth, with monthly volume jumping 87% to $31.5 billion, while Polymarket processed $10.3 billion on its international platform and a further $3 billion through its U.S. platform. The World Cup has become a major catalyst for activity. Kalshi's market predicting the tournament winner alone has attracted more than $832 million in wagers, with France emerging as the favourite among traders. On Polymarket, individual match markets have regularly generated between $500,000 and $2 million in trading volume. 💰 Kalshi Doubles Valuation in Weeks @Kalshi is reportedly in advanced talks to raise fresh funding at a $40 billion valuation, almost double the $22 billion valuation it received in its Series F round just weeks ago. If the deal goes through, it would widen the gap with rival Polymarket, which is reportedly seeking a $15 billion valuation. The fundraising comes after a year of explosive growth, backed by investors including Coatue, Sequoia Capital, and Andreessen Horowitz, and follows a surge in trading activity fuelled by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The difference between the two platforms comes down largely to regulation. Kalshi’s status as a federally regulated U.S. prediction market makes it easier to attract institutional investors and market makers, unlike Polymarket, which is a decentralized, crypto-native platform. With CEO @mansourtarek_ confirming the company is exploring an IPO after 2027, this fundraising round suggests investors see regulated prediction markets becoming a much larger part of mainstream financial markets. 💰 Well Above $1 Billion @Polymarket says its annualised revenue has now climbed well above $1 billion, marking a major milestone just six weeks after opening access to its U.S. prediction market. The company also benefited from a surge in World Cup trading, with daily volume on its U.S. platform rising from around $50 million in mid-May to more than $200 million by late June. At the same time, its international platform has reached record trading volumes as football fans increasingly turn to prediction markets. The update highlights how quickly the sector is growing as regulated prediction markets move further into the mainstream. Polymarket's U.S. platform operates separately from its international crypto-based exchange and is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, following the closure of earlier regulatory investigations without charges. And rounding up this section: 💰Predictive Labs CEO Johann Evrard to Attend NEXTPredict Summit in New York @Predictive_Labs Founder and CEO @johann_evrard will attend NEXTPredict – The World's Prediction Markets Summit, taking place in New York on 22-23 October 2026. The summit brings together leading founders, investors, academics and innovators shaping the future of prediction markets and market intelligence, with speakers including Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket, Tarek Mansour, Co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, and Robin Hanson, Professor of Economics and a pioneer of modern prediction markets. The event will provide Johann Evrard with the opportunity to significantly enhance Predictive Labs' visibility within the prediction markets industry, strengthen strategic relationships and showcase Predictive Labs’ intelligence layer for prediction markets to a highly influential audience. Predictive Labs is backed by Coinsilium Group. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️Meta and Kalshi… Before deciding to build its own prediction market product, @Meta reportedly explored acquiring Kalshi, holding talks with CEO Tarek Mansour last year as the platform's popularity accelerated. According to people familiar with the discussions, the deal never progressed, with reports suggesting either Kalshi was unwilling to sell or Meta ultimately decided the regulatory and legal risks were too great. Instead, Meta is now developing an AI-powered prediction app called Arena, where users will make forecasts using virtual money. While Meta's product won't compete directly with regulated, real-money markets, its entry could introduce millions of users to the idea of forecasting future events, potentially expanding the audience for the broader prediction market ecosystem. ⚡️Solana’s World After months of speculation, @world_xyz has officially launched as a fully onchain prediction market built on @solana and integrated directly into the @phantom wallet. The platform lets users trade markets on crypto prices and the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with sports, geopolitics, and macroeconomic events expected to follow. Unlike traditional prediction platforms, users trade directly from their own wallets, while all positions and settlements are handled onchain using Phantom's CASH stablecoin. World also relies on @chainlink's oracle network to determine market outcomes automatically, reducing the need for manual dispute resolution that has historically been a challenge for prediction markets. The launch gives the project immediate access to Phantom's large user base and adds another major competitor to the fast-growing prediction market space. ⚡️ X Integrates MCP X has launched a hosted Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, making it much easier for AI assistants such as Claude, Cursor, and Grok Build to access real-time data from the platform. Instead of developers building and hosting their own integrations, AI tools can now connect directly to X's API using a user's own account permissions. The new service doesn't expand what the API can do, but it significantly lowers the barrier for AI applications that want to search posts, analyse conversations, and access live information. The launch reflects a broader shift towards making AI models more connected to real-time data sources rather than relying only on their training data. By supporting the open MCP standard, X joins companies such as GitHub, Slack, and Notion in building infrastructure for AI-powered applications. Importantly, the service does not allow AI tools to publish posts automatically, with X keeping write access restricted as it continues to tighten controls around spam and automated activity. ⚡️Upwork for AI Agents @okx has launched OKX AI, a marketplace designed for autonomous AI agents to find work, complete tasks, and get paid directly in USDT or USDG stablecoins. The platform includes an Agent Marketplace, where developers can list AI agents and charge for their services, alongside a Task Marketplace, where agents can hire other agents and pay automatically once work is completed. OKX describes the platform as an "Upwork for AI agents," with payments handled through either instant transactions or escrow for more complex jobs. The launch reflects a growing belief that AI agents won't just assist humans but will increasingly transact with one another. By combining payments, identity, and reputation into a single system, OKX is trying to build the financial infrastructure for an emerging machine-to-machine economy. Backed by partners including AWS, the Solana Foundation, and the Ethereum Foundation, the platform signals how crypto companies are positioning stablecoins and blockchain rails as the default payment layer for autonomous AI systems. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

予測市場の次なる進化形「メタマーケット」とは──Predictive Labs CEOが語る市場インテリジェンス nadanews.com/356925/?utm_so…

⬇️⬇️ 👀 🙏 @StockBoxMedia #AgenticAI #PredictionMarkets @Yellow @Predictive_Labs @otomato_xyz 🇬🇧 $COIN.AQ 🇺🇸 $CINGF

The mid-price lies! The simplest fair value is the average of the best bid and best ask. It is also the worst, because it ignores the rest of the book. 🧮4 methods produce different answers and matter at different times. - Mid-price (bid plus ask divided by 2) is the default, useful only when the book is roughly symmetric. - Weighted mid-price brings displayed sizes into the calculation and pulls fair value toward the thinner side of the book, on the logic that the lighter queue is the one that yields first. - Microprice (Stoikov 2018) adjusts for queue imbalance and produces a less-biased estimator under standard book dynamics. - Trade-flow VWAP over a short rolling window anchors fair value to where actual capital recently changed hands, which matters most when displayed liquidity is thin or stale. A market maker should watch where the 4 diverge. - Mid versus microprice gap means imbalance is real and fair value is moving. - VWAP versus mid gap means the trade flow has information the resting book has not yet absorbed... The discipline is to triangulate across all 4 signals. Anchoring on the cheapest one is how you get picked off. #PredictionMarkets #MarketMaking #Microprice

Predictive Labs is a Global Partner of Wiki Finance EXPO Hong Kong 2026. 23-24 July, Hopewell Hotel, Wan Chai. If you'll be there, come say hello. Register: wikiexpo.com/HongKong/2026/…

Same event. 73 cents on Kalshi. 71 cents on Polymarket. Arb? The headline question on both venues looks identical. So does the resolution date. The trader fades the higher and buys the lower, expecting convergence. Six weeks later, Kalshi resolves 'Yes' on a wording that excludes the edge case Polymarket captured. The 2-cent gap was real. The convergence never came. Meta-Market mapping is the discipline of confirming that two listed markets actually resolve on the same underlying event. Same headline can hide different contracts. The mapping has to read the actual resolution rule, the data source the oracle uses, and the cutoff time. 🧮Academic work covering over 100,000 events across ten venues (Gebele and Matthes 2026) found that roughly 6% list cross-platform, and even after careful semantic alignment, equivalent markets show persistent 2 to 4% price deviations driven by structural friction rather than disagreement. Some of those gaps are real arbitrage held open by capital costs. Others reflect different contracts that happen to share the same headline. Read the resolution rule before you trade the spread. #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Kalshi

Same return. One blows up... Average return is the wrong metric to watch. Two strategies can produce identical CAGR and have completely different risk profiles, because the shape of the journey determines whether you survive long enough to capture the average. 🧮 Maximum Drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in your bankroll over the period. Express it as a percentage of the prior equity peak. A strategy averaging 30% per year can run a 60% drawdown along the way. Mathematically survivable. Psychologically often not, because the stated stop-loss rarely survives contact with a real drawdown! The discipline is to size the bankroll for drawdowns worse than what you have seen. A common rule of thumb sets the buffer at 1.5x to 2x the historical worst. The deeper warning comes from Bailey and López de Prado's Triple Penance Rule (2014): recovery typically spans 3x the drawdown formation period. By that rule, a 6-month decline takes roughly 18 months to climb back from... Headline returns are marketing. Drawdown is the survival signal. #PredictionMarkets #RiskManagement #Drawdown