Predictive Labs

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E171: @CoinsiliumGroup - Prediction markets, AI agents, and the next big trade Eddy Travia is the CEO and co-founder of Coinsilium, a publicly listed crypto accelerator on a London Exchange. He's been in this space since 2013. We cover Coinsilium's wild 2025, the limits of the Bitcoin treasury model, and why Eddy is now positioning around prediction markets and the agentic economy. Timestamps: Introduction Tea & Coffee Discussion What Would Eddy Do If he Got $10 Million Today Why Does Crypto Make Sense In A World In Crisis Partnerships: @JupiterExchange @KASTxyz Who Is Eddy Travia? Why Eddy Backed WSH Early? What Is Coinsilium Explained Simply What Coinsilium Dealt With Last Year What Did Coinsilium Do Right In 2025 Despite The Criticism The @Yellow Network Bet Why Yellow Matters? Partnerships: @ethena @sumsub Eddy’s Further Thoughts On The Yellow Investment Has Anything Good Come Out Of Crypto Lately? Why You Need To Be A VC To Win In Crypto How To Play Prediction Markets How to Position For High-Traction Markets How The Investor Environment Is Changing and Why He Backed @otomato_xyz How This Changes Eddy's Investing What Companies Should Know About The AI Agents Era How AI Agents Change Fundraising Should The Crypto Industry Fear The AI Brain Drain Partnerships: @Trezor @Bitwise Is Eddy Still Bullish On Crypto? Is The $1M Bitcoin Dream Dead? Closing Thoughts

Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of event-driven finance and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉More Than 90% 👉Make money, Cut Costs 👉And More To Come 👉Still Waiting on The SEC 👉Gibraltar Moves Early 👉Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs 📈 Industry Pulse 👉JP says Be Cautious 👉Regulations V Prediction Markets 👉DeepBook Predict on Sui 👉Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers 👉Brazil Says No 👉Confidence or Accuracy? 💸 Capital Signals 💰 More Than 90% Kalshi just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in a Series F round led by Coatue, with backing from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, ARK Invest, and others. What makes this stand out is that just five months ago, Kalshi was valued at $11 billion, and around $5 billion less than a year earlier. Few sectors outside AI have seen that kind of acceleration. The growth behind the raise helps explain the enthusiasm. Kalshi says annualised trading volume has jumped from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months, while institutional activity on the platform rose 800% over the same period. The company now claims more than 90% of US prediction market activity, alongside roughly $1.5 billion in annualised revenue and two million monthly users. 💰Make money, Cut Costs DraftKings beat profit expectations this quarter, but there’s a bigger story. The sports betting giant reported $1.65 billion in quarterly revenue alongside stronger-than-expected earnings, while CEO Jason Robins pointed to prediction markets as a key strategic focus going forward. DraftKings says integrating prediction products directly into its main app cut customer acquisition costs by more than 80% in April, giving the company a cheaper way to retain and monetise users without relying solely on expensive sportsbook promotions. Robins also framed prediction markets as a hedge against shifting gambling regulation. 💰And More To Come Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has now committed another $600 million to prediction market platform Polymarket as part of a broader plan to invest up to $2 billion into the company. While Polymarket’s latest valuation has not been formally disclosed, earlier rounds reportedly placed the company near $9 billion, with more recent fundraising discussions pushing implied valuations closer to $15 billion. Meanwhile, 💰Still Waiting on The SEC The SEC has delayed a wave of proposed prediction market ETFs that were expected to launch this week, putting at least 24 funds from issuers like Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares on hold while regulators take a closer look at how the products would work and the risks involved. The ETFs were designed to give investors exposure to political and economic outcomes, from the 2028 US election to recession odds and tech-sector layoffs, effectively packaging prediction market activity into traditional public-market products. 💰Consensus 2026: Gibraltar Moves Early to Establish Dedicated Prediction Markets Regulatory Framework During an interview with CoinDesk at Consensus Miami 2026, Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said Gibraltar is positioning itself at the forefront of the prediction markets sector through a dedicated regulatory framework designed to support innovation while providing legal clarity for operators. Speaking at Consensus, he confirmed that Gibraltar has already passed legislation to licence and regulate prediction market operators and has issued its first licence to a company owned by the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund. Feetham said Gibraltar aims to move beyond the traditional debate of whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling or financial services by creating a dedicated regime tailored specifically to the sector. He added that Gibraltar’s flexible licensing structure has enabled the jurisdiction to move quickly and maintain a first-mover advantage in this emerging area of digital finance. And rounding up this section: 💰 Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs Following Investment and Advisory Agreement Coinsilium has entered into a Strategic Advisory Services Agreement with @Predictive_Labs following its recent US$150,000 investment via convertible preference shares. Under the agreement, Coinsilium will support Predictive Labs across areas including go-to-market strategy, financial structuring, and operational scaling, while the appointment of its CEO, @eddybitcoin, as an advisor is expected to further strengthen collaboration between the two organisations. Predictive Labs has also launched its new website (predictivelabs dot io), outlining its positioning as a data intelligence platform for prediction markets and event-driven finance. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️JP says Be Cautious JPMorgan has reportedly issued internal guidance warning employees to be cautious when trading on prediction market platforms. The bank did not ban participation outright, but CEO Jamie Dimon advised employees to avoid contracts connected to sectors they work in professionally and warned against using any confidential or nonpublic information when placing trades. The move highlights a growing tension at the centre of the prediction market boom. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket attract more users, liquidity, and institutional attention, concerns around insider information are becoming harder to separate from the product itself. Unlike sports betting, many event contracts revolve around politics, economics, regulation, or company-specific outcomes, areas where financial professionals could potentially hold informational advantages. ⚡️Regulations V Prediction Markets The regulatory battle around prediction markets is escalating quickly. CFTC has now sued Wisconsin after the state launched legal actions against Kalshi, Polymarket, Cryptodotcom, Robinhood, and Coinbase over their prediction market offerings. Wisconsin had argued the platforms were violating state gambling laws, while the CFTC responded by asserting that these products fall under federal commodities regulation, not state gaming oversight. The lawsuit is part of a much broader clash between federal regulators and individual states over who actually controls event-contract markets. The CFTC has already filed similar actions against New York, Connecticut, and Illinois, while also supporting prediction-market companies in ongoing court battles elsewhere. Chairman Michael Selig made the agency’s position unusually direct, warning states that attempts to interfere with federally regulated financial markets would be challenged aggressively in court. At the same time, Kalshi faced tough questioning this week from Massachusetts’ highest court as judges weighed whether the state can block the company from offering sports-related event contracts without a gaming licence. During oral arguments, several justices openly questioned how Kalshi’s products differ from traditional sports betting, with one judge bluntly describing the platform as simply “a way to bet on a game.” The case sits at the centre of a much larger fight over who gets to control prediction markets as the industry scales. Kalshi argues that because it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), states should not have the authority to intervene. State regulators see it differently, arguing that sports event contracts effectively function as gambling products and should fall under local gaming laws, including restrictions around licensing and age requirements. ⚡️DeepBook Predict on Sui @DeepBookonSui has launched “DeepBook Predict” on the @SuiNetwork testnet, expanding its infrastructure stack beyond spot and margin trading into prediction markets, options, and programmable financial products. The new system lets developers build everything from Polymarket-style binary markets to leveraged ETFs and structured products directly on-chain, using shared liquidity across the ecosystem. The platform is also integrating pricing infrastructure from @BlockScholes, bringing institutional-style options pricing into a decentralised environment with sub-second settlement speeds. DeepBook argues that most prediction markets today are “dead-end” systems where positions can only be bought or sold. Predict, by contrast, is designed to make those positions composable, meaning they can be leveraged, used as collateral, combined into spreads, or integrated into broader financial products in the same ecosystem. ⚡️Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers Kalshi is rolling out a new set of consumer protection measures aimed at keeping minors off its platform and monitoring signs of unhealthy trading behaviour as political scrutiny around prediction markets intensifies. The company says users will now face additional identity verification measures, including facial recognition checks, optional two-factor authentication, and behaviour-based safeguards such as suggested deposit limits for accounts showing signs of excessive losses or risky activity. The changes come as prediction markets increasingly find themselves pulled into the broader debate around online gambling and youth participation. Sports leagues, lawmakers, and advocacy groups have started raising concerns that platforms like Kalshi could expose younger users, particularly young men, to addictive financial behaviour under the framing of “trading” rather than gambling. The NBA and PGA Tour recently pushed for the minimum trading age to be raised to 21, while new legislation introduced in the Senate would require stricter age verification and self-exclusion programmes across the sector. Meanwhile, A new Financial Times opinion piece is pushing for stricter identity verification on prediction market platforms like Polymarket, arguing that anonymous trading creates growing risks around insider trading, market manipulation, and fake volume generation. The article cited research suggesting that as much as 60% of Polymarket trading activity in late 2024 may have involved wash trading, a practice where traders effectively trade with themselves to artificially inflate market activity and liquidity. ⚡️Brazil Says No Brazil has blocked access to major prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, as part of a broader crackdown on unlicensed betting-style services. Authorities said the decision was driven by consumer protection concerns, arguing that these platforms offer event-based financial products without fitting cleanly under either gambling or derivatives regulation. Telecommunications regulator Anatel moved quickly to restrict access, with dozens of platforms reportedly affected. As prediction markets continue expanding globally, Brazil’s response could become an early blueprint for how other emerging economies handle the sector, particularly in regions already concerned about online gambling, retail speculation, and rising household debt. ⚡️Confidence or Accuracy? Several new AI research papers are using live prediction markets as testing grounds for autonomous trading agents, with projects like Prediction Arena, PolyBench, and PolySwarm evaluating how LLMs perform when asked to forecast outcomes, place trades, and react to changing market conditions. Some experiments used real capital, while others relied on simulated order books designed to mirror how prediction markets behave in practice. The early takeaway is that AI agents are getting better at participating in markets, but they are still far from consistently making reliable decisions. Researchers found major differences between models and platforms, especially when it came to probability calibration, which is the ability to judge uncertainty accurately rather than simply producing a confident-sounding answer. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

Latest Strategic Update from @CoinsiliumGroup including developments at @Predictive_Labs @otomato_xyz @Yellow @YellowProHQ

Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of event-driven finance and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉 That’s $1 Billion Weekly! 👉Predictive Labs CEO and Coinsilium CEO to speak at Hong Kong event 📈 Industry Pulse 👉NY V Coinbase, Gemini 👉Kalshi for News, for the Win 👉That Makes 2 👉Trillion-Dollar Potential… 👉Not Easy Money Just Yet… 💸 Capital Signals 💰 That’s $1 Billion Weekly! Polymarket is reportedly in talks to raise $400 million at a valuation of up to $15 billion, another sharp jump for a company that was valued near $9 billion only months ago. The move follows a surge in activity on the platform, with weekly trading volume now reportedly exceeding $1 billion. Existing backers include major names such as Founders Fund and Intercontinental Exchange. Intercontinental Exchange has already said it plans to distribute Polymarket data more broadly, while traders in markets such as oil have reportedly begun watching prediction odds as an additional signal. Basically, investors seem to be betting that prediction markets can become part of the global financial information stack, and real-time probabilities themselves could become the product. And rounding up this section: 💰 Predictive Labs CEO and Coinsilium CEO to speak at Hong Kong event @Predictive_Labs CEO Johann Evrard and Coinsilium CEO Eddy Travia are set to speak at WikiEXPO, which will take place 23-24 July in Hong Kong, where they will discuss two areas gathering increasing attention: prediction markets and the emerging agentic economy. Their appearance places both themes on a larger global fintech stage, alongside conversations spanning crypto, forex, and broader financial innovation. Conferences like WikiEXPO are great early signal hubs for where institutional curiosity is moving next. With more than 10,000 attendees per event and a global audience reportedly above two million followers, the platform has become a meeting point for startups, investors, and established financial players. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️NY V Coinbase, Gemini New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed lawsuits against Coinbase and Gemini, accusing both firms of offering prediction markets that violate state gambling laws. The cases argue that so-called event contracts are effectively wagers dressed up as financial products. This marks one of the most aggressive state-level moves yet against the sector, and the legal fight is moving beyond specialist prediction platforms like Kalshi and into major public crypto companies with broader consumer reach. If courts side with New York, the decision could create a powerful precedent for other states, raising the cost and legal risk of offering event markets nationwide. It also sharpens a growing clash between federal regulators, who have generally allowed these contracts, and state authorities that see them as gambling. The bigger question now is whether prediction markets will be governed as finance, gaming, or something in between. ⚡️Kalshi for News, for the Win Fox Corporation plans to integrate data from Kalshi across its news and streaming properties, including FOX News, FOX Business, FOX Weather, and FOX One. The deal will bring live market probabilities into coverage of politics, the economy, weather, and cultural events, while Kalshi also works with Fox production teams on real-time data visualisation. Instead of relying only on polls, analyst opinions, or static forecasts, audiences may increasingly see live market odds embedded directly into news coverage. Kalshi says around 70% of visitors come primarily to view forecasts rather than trade, suggesting these platforms are becoming information products as much as financial ones. And at the same time, A federal judge has temporarily blocked Arizona from continuing its criminal case against Kalshi, handing an early win to the company and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The dispute centres on whether states can treat prediction markets as gambling operations, or whether federally regulated event contracts fall solely under CFTC oversight. The ruling highlights the core question facing the industry: who actually controls prediction markets? If federal courts continue siding with the CFTC, state attempts to shut down platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and others could become much harder to enforce. ⚡️That Makes 2 U.S. prosecutors have charged Special Forces, Master Sgt. Gannon Van Dyke with allegedly using classified military intelligence to place wagers tied to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on a prediction market platform. Authorities say he placed more than $33,000 in trades and generated roughly $400,000 in profit. It was also reported that he may have attempted to open an account on a regulated rival platform but could not proceed due to identity verification controls. Meanwhile, French weather authorities have filed a police complaint after suspicious temperature spikes at a Paris airport weather station reportedly helped bettors profit from weather-linked contracts on Polymarket. On two separate days, readings at Charles de Gaulle Airport briefly jumped by several degrees within minutes, moves that reportedly turned low-probability wagers into winning trades. One user was said to have turned less than $30 into nearly $14,000. Polymarket later changed the reference data source used to settle the Paris contract. ⚡️Trillion-Dollar Potential… ARK Investment Management has published a new piece via Seeking Alpha arguing that prediction markets could evolve into a multi-trillion-dollar asset class. The report’s core thesis is that these markets have evolved past speculation into a new financial layer for pricing probabilities around elections, policy decisions, economic outcomes, and countless real-world events. ARK also points to a potential $5 trillion opportunity if the category matures into mainstream infrastructure. ⚡️Not Easy Money Just Yet… A new Fast Company report says AI systems are already being tested on prediction markets, with early results falling short of the hype. It cites recent academic research from The Wharton School, where several frontier AI models were given capital to trade autonomously on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Most reportedly finished the experiment with losses rather than gains. While many assume AI agents will naturally outperform humans in markets built around information and probabilities, early evidence suggests live judgement, timing, risk management, and interpreting messy real-world events remain harder than expected. Still, with consistent improvements, prediction markets could become one of the first arenas where autonomous AI competes directly with humans for capital. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

Gm Folks We are back, and with something different. WSH is collaborating with @CoinsiliumGroup to launch the Predict Alpha Report, a bi-monthly publication tracking the rise of prediction markets and the growing role of AI agents within them. As prediction markets and the agentic AI economy converge into a new layer of financial infrastructure, what was once a niche segment is quickly becoming a more important part of modern markets. Capital is flowing into leading platforms, institutional engagement is increasing, and regulatory frameworks are beginning to take shape. At the same time, the integration of AI agents is accelerating, introducing a new dynamic into how markets interpret and act on future events. This first edition comes at an inflection point, and each edition will aim to cut through the noise, highlight emerging patterns, and surface the opportunities forming across this evolving landscape. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉Guess Who’s Eyeing $20b Valuations 👉Huh, That’s A Tad Bit Suspicious 👉Coinsilium Backs Predictive Labs 📈 Industry Pulse 👉In Just 5 Mins?! 👉FIFA and… 👉Gibraltar first in Europe! 👉AI Agents Are Changing Prediction Markets 👉2026 And Prediction Markets 💸 Capital Signals 💰 Guess Who’s Eyeing $20b Valuations Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leading players in the prediction markets space, are simultaneously exploring new funding rounds that could value each company at around $20 billion, which is roughly double their most recent valuations (late last year). They owe this surge in valuation to rapid user growth, aggressive marketing, and expanding product offerings. Kalshi, which operates legally in the U.S. under approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has already reached an estimated $1–1.5 billion revenue run rate, and is offering markets across sports, politics, and macroeconomic events. Polymarket, founded later and currently restricted to U.S. users, has grown globally and is preparing a regulated domestic launch while deepening institutional ties, including a data partnership with Dow Jones. 💰Huh, That’s A Tad Bit Suspicious A wave of newly created accounts on Polymarket placed highly specific bets on a U.S.–Iran ceasefire just hours before it was officially announced, walking away with hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit. The timing was a little weird because earlier that same day, public rhetoric had escalated sharply, with warnings of major conflict and little indication that a deal was close. Yet at least 50 new wallets moved in early, buying “Yes” positions before the announcement hit. One account, created the same day, placed roughly $72,000 in bets and exited with a profit of about $200,000. Another wallet generated approximately $125,500 in gains, while a third, created just 12 minutes before the announcement, is estimated to have earned about $48,500 in profit. Many of these wallets had no prior activity, with trades placed shortly before the news broke. This isn’t the first time something like this has happened. Similar clusters of well-timed bets have appeared around past geopolitical events, repeatedly sparking concerns about insider activity in prediction markets. In response, both lawmakers and platforms are beginning to take the issue more seriously, with calls to expand insider trading rules to cover these markets. And rounding up this section: 💰 Coinsilium Backs Predictive Labs Coinsilium has made a strategic venture-building investment in Predictive Labs, giving it exposure to the infrastructure layer powering prediction markets. The Group invested $150k via Seedcoin, its Gibraltar-registered subsidiary, to acquire a 5.52% stake in Predictive Labs, a Singapore-based firm building data intelligence infrastructure for prediction markets. A really cool detail is that the deal is structured with optional tranches that could increase Coinsilium’s ownership to nearly 30% over time, depending on milestones through 2027. Rather than building another trading platform, Predictive Labs focuses on aggregating and analysing signals across multiple prediction markets, targeting professional users, researchers, and AI agents. This positions Coinsilium at the data and discovery layer, which facilitates how these markets are interpreted and utilised. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️In Just 5 Mins?! Users on Polymarket can now bet on whether Bitcoin will be higher or lower in as little as five or 15 minutes, and these ultra-short contracts have quickly become some of the busiest on the platform. In just over a month, five-minute markets alone have seen as much as $60 million in daily volume. At one point in early March, Polymarket’s weekly volume reached $1.93 billion, edging past Kalshi’s $1.87 billion, as the rivalry between the two platforms intensified. Shorter trading windows favour participants who can react fastest, and that has drawn a wave of automated systems into these markets. Bots and AI-assisted traders are increasingly using real-time data to place rapid bets, exploiting small pricing gaps that human traders simply cannot act on in time. The result is a different kind of market dynamic, one where participation is open, but outcomes are increasingly shaped by those with the infrastructure to move quickest. ⚡️FIFA and… Prediction markets are stepping onto one of the biggest stages in the world! ADI Predictstreet has signed a multi-year partnership with FIFA, becoming the first-ever official partner in the prediction market category ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2026. The platform will allow fans to forecast match outcomes, player performance, and key moments using FIFA’s historical data. With the 2026 tournament set to feature 48 teams, 104 matches, and a global audience in the billions, the scale of this rollout is massive. Shortly before the announcement, Predictstreet secured a Gibraltar licence, giving it both a regulated base and immediate global distribution through FIFA. ⚡️Gibraltar first in Europe! Gibraltar has issued its first license to a prediction market operator, marking a shift in how the sector is being regulated in Europe. The license was granted to Predict Street Ltd under the existing 2005 Gambling Act. The platform, backed by ADI Chain, is positioning itself around major global events like the FIFA World Cup 2026. While many European countries continue to restrict or debate how to classify prediction markets, Gibraltar is moving early to create a formal regulatory pathway. The territory’s gambling sector already employs around 3,500 people and contributes roughly one-third of government tax revenue, and this decision reflects a push to stay competitive as external pressures, including rising UK gambling taxes, begin to weigh on the industry. ⚡️AI Agents Are Changing Prediction Markets AI is starting to change how trading happens in prediction markets. Instead of relying only on human judgment, traders are increasingly using AI-powered automated agents that can analyze data, forecast outcomes, and execute trades continuously. These systems operate 24/7, monitor multiple markets at once, and follow predefined strategies without emotional bias. What makes prediction markets a natural fit is how they work. Prices reflect probabilities, so success depends on processing information quickly and acting on it efficiently. AI agents are well-suited for this. They can also place thousands of trades over short periods while maintaining strict rules, opening up smaller, less-followed markets, where agentic systems can identify opportunities that human traders might miss. ⚡️2026 And Prediction Markets Prediction markets are scaling quickly, and 2026 is shaping up to be a defining year. Platforms like Polymarket are no longer limited to political events, now offering thousands of markets across sports, finance, and culture. That growth is showing up in the numbers, with prediction markets now regularly processing hundreds of millions of dollars in daily trading volume, with peak activity in early 2026 exceeding $700 million in a single day, and the broader ecosystem now processing over $20 billion in monthly volume during peak months in early 2026. At the same time, the structure around these markets is maturing. Polymarket has moved toward regulated U.S. access through its $112 million acquisition of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, laying the groundwork for a compliant re-entry into the U.S. market. AI is also accelerating price discovery, with agentic systems increasingly involved in market making and probability estimation. Meanwhile, sports markets are moving into the mainstream, and institutional tools are beginning to emerge, enabling more professional participation. Zooming out, the signal is that multiple forces are compounding at once. Regulation is becoming clearer, capital and infrastructure are improving, and AI is increasing the speed at which information is processed and priced. Together, these shifts suggest prediction markets have crossed an important threshold and secured a more established role in the financial system. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of Predict Alpha Report on the 27th of April. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.