Eddy Travia

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Eddy Travia

Eddy Travia

@eddybitcoin

#Blockchain #Bitcoin since 2013. @CoinsiliumGroup @ForzaBitcoin @Yellow @Otomato_xyz @Predictive_Labs @Propex_app @GGS_io @GreengageCo @joinindorse @ssv_network

Singapore Katılım Temmuz 2013
4.1K Takip Edilen7.7K Takipçiler
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Otomato 🔴
Otomato 🔴@otomato_xyz·
Otomato weekly update 🧵 A bunch of stuff shipped recently. Here's what you can already use, and what's coming next
Otomato 🔴 tweet media
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MR SHIFT 🦁
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod·
E171: @CoinsiliumGroup - Prediction markets, AI agents, and the next big trade Eddy Travia is the CEO and co-founder of Coinsilium, a publicly listed crypto accelerator on a London Exchange. He's been in this space since 2013. We cover Coinsilium's wild 2025, the limits of the Bitcoin treasury model, and why Eddy is now positioning around prediction markets and the agentic economy. Timestamps: Introduction Tea & Coffee Discussion What Would Eddy Do If he Got $10 Million Today Why Does Crypto Make Sense In A World In Crisis Partnerships: @JupiterExchange @KASTxyz Who Is Eddy Travia? Why Eddy Backed WSH Early? What Is Coinsilium Explained Simply What Coinsilium Dealt With Last Year What Did Coinsilium Do Right In 2025 Despite The Criticism The @Yellow Network Bet Why Yellow Matters? Partnerships: @ethena @sumsub Eddy’s Further Thoughts On The Yellow Investment Has Anything Good Come Out Of Crypto Lately? Why You Need To Be A VC To Win In Crypto How To Play Prediction Markets How to Position For High-Traction Markets How The Investor Environment Is Changing and Why He Backed @otomato_xyz How This Changes Eddy's Investing What Companies Should Know About The AI Agents Era How AI Agents Change Fundraising Should The Crypto Industry Fear The AI Brain Drain Partnerships: @Trezor @Bitwise Is Eddy Still Bullish On Crypto? Is The $1M Bitcoin Dream Dead? Closing Thoughts
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MR SHIFT 🦁
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod·
The internet needed blockchain. Blockchain needs AI agents McKinsey says $5T market. Gartner says $15T @eddybitcoin thinks we're at another 1999 moment - and most people still don't see it Podcast out tomorrow @CoinsiliumGroup
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MR SHIFT 🦁
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod·
. @eddybitcoin on how the agent economy is quietly rewiring startup fundraising AI agents allocate capital based on results - not relationships, not vibes, not your school If your traction is real, they'll find you Podcast out this week! @CoinsiliumGroup
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MR SHIFT 🦁
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod·
Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of event-driven finance and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉More Than 90% 👉Make money, Cut Costs 👉And More To Come 👉Still Waiting on The SEC 👉Gibraltar Moves Early 👉Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs 📈 Industry Pulse 👉JP says Be Cautious 👉Regulations V Prediction Markets 👉DeepBook Predict on Sui 👉Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers 👉Brazil Says No 👉Confidence or Accuracy? 💸 Capital Signals 💰 More Than 90% Kalshi just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in a Series F round led by Coatue, with backing from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, ARK Invest, and others. What makes this stand out is that just five months ago, Kalshi was valued at $11 billion, and around $5 billion less than a year earlier. Few sectors outside AI have seen that kind of acceleration. The growth behind the raise helps explain the enthusiasm. Kalshi says annualised trading volume has jumped from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months, while institutional activity on the platform rose 800% over the same period. The company now claims more than 90% of US prediction market activity, alongside roughly $1.5 billion in annualised revenue and two million monthly users. 💰Make money, Cut Costs DraftKings beat profit expectations this quarter, but there’s a bigger story. The sports betting giant reported $1.65 billion in quarterly revenue alongside stronger-than-expected earnings, while CEO Jason Robins pointed to prediction markets as a key strategic focus going forward. DraftKings says integrating prediction products directly into its main app cut customer acquisition costs by more than 80% in April, giving the company a cheaper way to retain and monetise users without relying solely on expensive sportsbook promotions. Robins also framed prediction markets as a hedge against shifting gambling regulation. 💰And More To Come Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has now committed another $600 million to prediction market platform Polymarket as part of a broader plan to invest up to $2 billion into the company. While Polymarket’s latest valuation has not been formally disclosed, earlier rounds reportedly placed the company near $9 billion, with more recent fundraising discussions pushing implied valuations closer to $15 billion. Meanwhile, 💰Still Waiting on The SEC The SEC has delayed a wave of proposed prediction market ETFs that were expected to launch this week, putting at least 24 funds from issuers like Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares on hold while regulators take a closer look at how the products would work and the risks involved. The ETFs were designed to give investors exposure to political and economic outcomes, from the 2028 US election to recession odds and tech-sector layoffs, effectively packaging prediction market activity into traditional public-market products. 💰Consensus 2026: Gibraltar Moves Early to Establish Dedicated Prediction Markets Regulatory Framework During an interview with CoinDesk at Consensus Miami 2026, Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said Gibraltar is positioning itself at the forefront of the prediction markets sector through a dedicated regulatory framework designed to support innovation while providing legal clarity for operators. Speaking at Consensus, he confirmed that Gibraltar has already passed legislation to licence and regulate prediction market operators and has issued its first licence to a company owned by the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund. Feetham said Gibraltar aims to move beyond the traditional debate of whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling or financial services by creating a dedicated regime tailored specifically to the sector. He added that Gibraltar’s flexible licensing structure has enabled the jurisdiction to move quickly and maintain a first-mover advantage in this emerging area of digital finance. And rounding up this section: 💰 Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs Following Investment and Advisory Agreement Coinsilium has entered into a Strategic Advisory Services Agreement with @Predictive_Labs following its recent US$150,000 investment via convertible preference shares. Under the agreement, Coinsilium will support Predictive Labs across areas including go-to-market strategy, financial structuring, and operational scaling, while the appointment of its CEO, @eddybitcoin, as an advisor is expected to further strengthen collaboration between the two organisations. Predictive Labs has also launched its new website (predictivelabs dot io), outlining its positioning as a data intelligence platform for prediction markets and event-driven finance. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️JP says Be Cautious JPMorgan has reportedly issued internal guidance warning employees to be cautious when trading on prediction market platforms. The bank did not ban participation outright, but CEO Jamie Dimon advised employees to avoid contracts connected to sectors they work in professionally and warned against using any confidential or nonpublic information when placing trades. The move highlights a growing tension at the centre of the prediction market boom. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket attract more users, liquidity, and institutional attention, concerns around insider information are becoming harder to separate from the product itself. Unlike sports betting, many event contracts revolve around politics, economics, regulation, or company-specific outcomes, areas where financial professionals could potentially hold informational advantages. ⚡️Regulations V Prediction Markets The regulatory battle around prediction markets is escalating quickly. CFTC has now sued Wisconsin after the state launched legal actions against Kalshi, Polymarket, Cryptodotcom, Robinhood, and Coinbase over their prediction market offerings. Wisconsin had argued the platforms were violating state gambling laws, while the CFTC responded by asserting that these products fall under federal commodities regulation, not state gaming oversight. The lawsuit is part of a much broader clash between federal regulators and individual states over who actually controls event-contract markets. The CFTC has already filed similar actions against New York, Connecticut, and Illinois, while also supporting prediction-market companies in ongoing court battles elsewhere. Chairman Michael Selig made the agency’s position unusually direct, warning states that attempts to interfere with federally regulated financial markets would be challenged aggressively in court. At the same time, Kalshi faced tough questioning this week from Massachusetts’ highest court as judges weighed whether the state can block the company from offering sports-related event contracts without a gaming licence. During oral arguments, several justices openly questioned how Kalshi’s products differ from traditional sports betting, with one judge bluntly describing the platform as simply “a way to bet on a game.” The case sits at the centre of a much larger fight over who gets to control prediction markets as the industry scales. Kalshi argues that because it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), states should not have the authority to intervene. State regulators see it differently, arguing that sports event contracts effectively function as gambling products and should fall under local gaming laws, including restrictions around licensing and age requirements. ⚡️DeepBook Predict on Sui @DeepBookonSui has launched “DeepBook Predict” on the @SuiNetwork testnet, expanding its infrastructure stack beyond spot and margin trading into prediction markets, options, and programmable financial products. The new system lets developers build everything from Polymarket-style binary markets to leveraged ETFs and structured products directly on-chain, using shared liquidity across the ecosystem. The platform is also integrating pricing infrastructure from @BlockScholes, bringing institutional-style options pricing into a decentralised environment with sub-second settlement speeds. DeepBook argues that most prediction markets today are “dead-end” systems where positions can only be bought or sold. Predict, by contrast, is designed to make those positions composable, meaning they can be leveraged, used as collateral, combined into spreads, or integrated into broader financial products in the same ecosystem. ⚡️Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers Kalshi is rolling out a new set of consumer protection measures aimed at keeping minors off its platform and monitoring signs of unhealthy trading behaviour as political scrutiny around prediction markets intensifies. The company says users will now face additional identity verification measures, including facial recognition checks, optional two-factor authentication, and behaviour-based safeguards such as suggested deposit limits for accounts showing signs of excessive losses or risky activity. The changes come as prediction markets increasingly find themselves pulled into the broader debate around online gambling and youth participation. Sports leagues, lawmakers, and advocacy groups have started raising concerns that platforms like Kalshi could expose younger users, particularly young men, to addictive financial behaviour under the framing of “trading” rather than gambling. The NBA and PGA Tour recently pushed for the minimum trading age to be raised to 21, while new legislation introduced in the Senate would require stricter age verification and self-exclusion programmes across the sector. Meanwhile, A new Financial Times opinion piece is pushing for stricter identity verification on prediction market platforms like Polymarket, arguing that anonymous trading creates growing risks around insider trading, market manipulation, and fake volume generation. The article cited research suggesting that as much as 60% of Polymarket trading activity in late 2024 may have involved wash trading, a practice where traders effectively trade with themselves to artificially inflate market activity and liquidity. ⚡️Brazil Says No Brazil has blocked access to major prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, as part of a broader crackdown on unlicensed betting-style services. Authorities said the decision was driven by consumer protection concerns, arguing that these platforms offer event-based financial products without fitting cleanly under either gambling or derivatives regulation. Telecommunications regulator Anatel moved quickly to restrict access, with dozens of platforms reportedly affected. As prediction markets continue expanding globally, Brazil’s response could become an early blueprint for how other emerging economies handle the sector, particularly in regions already concerned about online gambling, retail speculation, and rising household debt. ⚡️Confidence or Accuracy? Several new AI research papers are using live prediction markets as testing grounds for autonomous trading agents, with projects like Prediction Arena, PolyBench, and PolySwarm evaluating how LLMs perform when asked to forecast outcomes, place trades, and react to changing market conditions. Some experiments used real capital, while others relied on simulated order books designed to mirror how prediction markets behave in practice. The early takeaway is that AI agents are getting better at participating in markets, but they are still far from consistently making reliable decisions. Researchers found major differences between models and platforms, especially when it came to probability calibration, which is the ability to judge uncertainty accurately rather than simply producing a confident-sounding answer. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.
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Predictive Labs
Predictive Labs@Predictive_Labs·
📰"Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs Following Investment and Advisory Agreement Coinsilium has entered into a Strategic Advisory Services Agreement with @Predictive_Labs following its recent US$150,000 investment via convertible preference shares. Under the agreement, Coinsilium will support Predictive Labs across areas including go-to-market strategy, financial structuring, and operational scaling, while the appointment of its CEO, @eddybitcoin , as an advisor is expected to further strengthen collaboration between the two organisations. Predictive Labs has also launched its new website (predictivelabs.io), outlining its positioning as a data intelligence platform for prediction markets and event-driven finance."
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod

Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of event-driven finance and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉More Than 90% 👉Make money, Cut Costs 👉And More To Come 👉Still Waiting on The SEC 👉Gibraltar Moves Early 👉Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs 📈 Industry Pulse 👉JP says Be Cautious 👉Regulations V Prediction Markets 👉DeepBook Predict on Sui 👉Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers 👉Brazil Says No 👉Confidence or Accuracy? 💸 Capital Signals 💰 More Than 90% Kalshi just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in a Series F round led by Coatue, with backing from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, ARK Invest, and others. What makes this stand out is that just five months ago, Kalshi was valued at $11 billion, and around $5 billion less than a year earlier. Few sectors outside AI have seen that kind of acceleration. The growth behind the raise helps explain the enthusiasm. Kalshi says annualised trading volume has jumped from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months, while institutional activity on the platform rose 800% over the same period. The company now claims more than 90% of US prediction market activity, alongside roughly $1.5 billion in annualised revenue and two million monthly users. 💰Make money, Cut Costs DraftKings beat profit expectations this quarter, but there’s a bigger story. The sports betting giant reported $1.65 billion in quarterly revenue alongside stronger-than-expected earnings, while CEO Jason Robins pointed to prediction markets as a key strategic focus going forward. DraftKings says integrating prediction products directly into its main app cut customer acquisition costs by more than 80% in April, giving the company a cheaper way to retain and monetise users without relying solely on expensive sportsbook promotions. Robins also framed prediction markets as a hedge against shifting gambling regulation. 💰And More To Come Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has now committed another $600 million to prediction market platform Polymarket as part of a broader plan to invest up to $2 billion into the company. While Polymarket’s latest valuation has not been formally disclosed, earlier rounds reportedly placed the company near $9 billion, with more recent fundraising discussions pushing implied valuations closer to $15 billion. Meanwhile, 💰Still Waiting on The SEC The SEC has delayed a wave of proposed prediction market ETFs that were expected to launch this week, putting at least 24 funds from issuers like Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares on hold while regulators take a closer look at how the products would work and the risks involved. The ETFs were designed to give investors exposure to political and economic outcomes, from the 2028 US election to recession odds and tech-sector layoffs, effectively packaging prediction market activity into traditional public-market products. 💰Consensus 2026: Gibraltar Moves Early to Establish Dedicated Prediction Markets Regulatory Framework During an interview with CoinDesk at Consensus Miami 2026, Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said Gibraltar is positioning itself at the forefront of the prediction markets sector through a dedicated regulatory framework designed to support innovation while providing legal clarity for operators. Speaking at Consensus, he confirmed that Gibraltar has already passed legislation to licence and regulate prediction market operators and has issued its first licence to a company owned by the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund. Feetham said Gibraltar aims to move beyond the traditional debate of whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling or financial services by creating a dedicated regime tailored specifically to the sector. He added that Gibraltar’s flexible licensing structure has enabled the jurisdiction to move quickly and maintain a first-mover advantage in this emerging area of digital finance. And rounding up this section: 💰 Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs Following Investment and Advisory Agreement Coinsilium has entered into a Strategic Advisory Services Agreement with @Predictive_Labs following its recent US$150,000 investment via convertible preference shares. Under the agreement, Coinsilium will support Predictive Labs across areas including go-to-market strategy, financial structuring, and operational scaling, while the appointment of its CEO, @eddybitcoin, as an advisor is expected to further strengthen collaboration between the two organisations. Predictive Labs has also launched its new website (predictivelabs dot io), outlining its positioning as a data intelligence platform for prediction markets and event-driven finance. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️JP says Be Cautious JPMorgan has reportedly issued internal guidance warning employees to be cautious when trading on prediction market platforms. The bank did not ban participation outright, but CEO Jamie Dimon advised employees to avoid contracts connected to sectors they work in professionally and warned against using any confidential or nonpublic information when placing trades. The move highlights a growing tension at the centre of the prediction market boom. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket attract more users, liquidity, and institutional attention, concerns around insider information are becoming harder to separate from the product itself. Unlike sports betting, many event contracts revolve around politics, economics, regulation, or company-specific outcomes, areas where financial professionals could potentially hold informational advantages. ⚡️Regulations V Prediction Markets The regulatory battle around prediction markets is escalating quickly. CFTC has now sued Wisconsin after the state launched legal actions against Kalshi, Polymarket, Cryptodotcom, Robinhood, and Coinbase over their prediction market offerings. Wisconsin had argued the platforms were violating state gambling laws, while the CFTC responded by asserting that these products fall under federal commodities regulation, not state gaming oversight. The lawsuit is part of a much broader clash between federal regulators and individual states over who actually controls event-contract markets. The CFTC has already filed similar actions against New York, Connecticut, and Illinois, while also supporting prediction-market companies in ongoing court battles elsewhere. Chairman Michael Selig made the agency’s position unusually direct, warning states that attempts to interfere with federally regulated financial markets would be challenged aggressively in court. At the same time, Kalshi faced tough questioning this week from Massachusetts’ highest court as judges weighed whether the state can block the company from offering sports-related event contracts without a gaming licence. During oral arguments, several justices openly questioned how Kalshi’s products differ from traditional sports betting, with one judge bluntly describing the platform as simply “a way to bet on a game.” The case sits at the centre of a much larger fight over who gets to control prediction markets as the industry scales. Kalshi argues that because it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), states should not have the authority to intervene. State regulators see it differently, arguing that sports event contracts effectively function as gambling products and should fall under local gaming laws, including restrictions around licensing and age requirements. ⚡️DeepBook Predict on Sui @DeepBookonSui has launched “DeepBook Predict” on the @SuiNetwork testnet, expanding its infrastructure stack beyond spot and margin trading into prediction markets, options, and programmable financial products. The new system lets developers build everything from Polymarket-style binary markets to leveraged ETFs and structured products directly on-chain, using shared liquidity across the ecosystem. The platform is also integrating pricing infrastructure from @BlockScholes, bringing institutional-style options pricing into a decentralised environment with sub-second settlement speeds. DeepBook argues that most prediction markets today are “dead-end” systems where positions can only be bought or sold. Predict, by contrast, is designed to make those positions composable, meaning they can be leveraged, used as collateral, combined into spreads, or integrated into broader financial products in the same ecosystem. ⚡️Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers Kalshi is rolling out a new set of consumer protection measures aimed at keeping minors off its platform and monitoring signs of unhealthy trading behaviour as political scrutiny around prediction markets intensifies. The company says users will now face additional identity verification measures, including facial recognition checks, optional two-factor authentication, and behaviour-based safeguards such as suggested deposit limits for accounts showing signs of excessive losses or risky activity. The changes come as prediction markets increasingly find themselves pulled into the broader debate around online gambling and youth participation. Sports leagues, lawmakers, and advocacy groups have started raising concerns that platforms like Kalshi could expose younger users, particularly young men, to addictive financial behaviour under the framing of “trading” rather than gambling. The NBA and PGA Tour recently pushed for the minimum trading age to be raised to 21, while new legislation introduced in the Senate would require stricter age verification and self-exclusion programmes across the sector. Meanwhile, A new Financial Times opinion piece is pushing for stricter identity verification on prediction market platforms like Polymarket, arguing that anonymous trading creates growing risks around insider trading, market manipulation, and fake volume generation. The article cited research suggesting that as much as 60% of Polymarket trading activity in late 2024 may have involved wash trading, a practice where traders effectively trade with themselves to artificially inflate market activity and liquidity. ⚡️Brazil Says No Brazil has blocked access to major prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, as part of a broader crackdown on unlicensed betting-style services. Authorities said the decision was driven by consumer protection concerns, arguing that these platforms offer event-based financial products without fitting cleanly under either gambling or derivatives regulation. Telecommunications regulator Anatel moved quickly to restrict access, with dozens of platforms reportedly affected. As prediction markets continue expanding globally, Brazil’s response could become an early blueprint for how other emerging economies handle the sector, particularly in regions already concerned about online gambling, retail speculation, and rising household debt. ⚡️Confidence or Accuracy? Several new AI research papers are using live prediction markets as testing grounds for autonomous trading agents, with projects like Prediction Arena, PolyBench, and PolySwarm evaluating how LLMs perform when asked to forecast outcomes, place trades, and react to changing market conditions. Some experiments used real capital, while others relied on simulated order books designed to mirror how prediction markets behave in practice. The early takeaway is that AI agents are getting better at participating in markets, but they are still far from consistently making reliable decisions. Researchers found major differences between models and platforms, especially when it came to probability calibration, which is the ability to judge uncertainty accurately rather than simply producing a confident-sounding answer. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

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Coinsilium
Coinsilium@CoinsiliumGroup·
Most insightful interview!! Coinsilium advisor @btcjvs, with @saylor for @CoinDesk 👍👏👏 ⬇️
CoinDesk@CoinDesk

JUST IN: @saylor sits down with CoinDesk's @btcjvs to discuss being the world’s largest Bitcoin buyer with $62B purchased and describe the convergence of TradFi and DeFi via their digital credit product Stretch (STRC), which has rapidly grown and helps fund Bitcoin accumulation. Here is the full conversation: 00:00 Biggest Bitcoin Buyer 00:12 Consensus Miami Buzz 01:12 Earnings Call Breakdown 03:01 Retiring Convertible Bonds 05:07 Yield First Decisions 08:25 Funding Dividends Options 09:29 Selling Bitcoin Impact 11:40 Buying the Top Critique 15:40 Transparency Not Trading 18:32 Tax Loss Harvesting Choices 22:15 Balancing Equity Credit BTC 25:55 Bear Market Stretch Engine 27:25 Europe Stream Lessons 30:46 UK Regulation Arbitrage 33:34 Stretch Dividends Timing 35:08 Macro Panic Explained 36:08 Monthly Issuance Whiplash 38:20 Why Stretch Trades Near Par 40:21 Growth Over Lower Rates 45:15 Sharpe Ratio Vision 46:44 Liquidity Drives Adoption 50:21 Credit Rating Not Required 54:44 DeFi Yield Coin Boom 55:59 Leverage Risk And Stress Tests 59:46 Perpetual Design Anti Bank Run 01:02:23 Let Traders Provide Liquidity 01:06:23 Institutional Views And Catalysts 01:11:50 Lindy Effect And Closing Thoughts

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Coinsilium
Coinsilium@CoinsiliumGroup·
And this!! ⬇️
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod

This week, I'm releasing a 60-minute conversation with @eddybitcoin - CEO and co-founder of @CoinsiliumGroup Eddy has been building in crypto since 2013, before most people had heard of a blockchain. He backed When Shift Happens before we had a single subscriber, listed Coinsilium on a stock exchange in London in 2015, and has spent over a decade helping crypto entrepreneurs go from zero to market - without a VC playbook. He's seen every cycle, this one included... We talk about: - Why the Bitcoin treasury model is a closed loop that breaks the moment retail demand dries up - How Coinsilium did £115 million in trading volume in a single month in 2025 - higher than Tesla on Hargreaves Lansdown - He thoughts on the hypothetical $10 million Bitcoin price - What @Yellow Network is building that the CEX model can't replicate - Why prediction markets went from $65 billion in volume in 2025 to a projected $300 billion in 2026 - How AI agents are going to pay each other - and why crypto is the natural currency - Why finding capital will get easier for entrepreneurs as AI removes human bias from deal-making - Why he decided to back @Otomato_xyz and what it actually is And much more... Podcast out this week!

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MR SHIFT 🦁
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod·
This week, I'm releasing a 60-minute conversation with @eddybitcoin - CEO and co-founder of @CoinsiliumGroup Eddy has been building in crypto since 2013, before most people had heard of a blockchain. He backed When Shift Happens before we had a single subscriber, listed Coinsilium on a stock exchange in London in 2015, and has spent over a decade helping crypto entrepreneurs go from zero to market - without a VC playbook. He's seen every cycle, this one included... We talk about: - Why the Bitcoin treasury model is a closed loop that breaks the moment retail demand dries up - How Coinsilium did £115 million in trading volume in a single month in 2025 - higher than Tesla on Hargreaves Lansdown - He thoughts on the hypothetical $10 million Bitcoin price - What @Yellow Network is building that the CEX model can't replicate - Why prediction markets went from $65 billion in volume in 2025 to a projected $300 billion in 2026 - How AI agents are going to pay each other - and why crypto is the natural currency - Why finding capital will get easier for entrepreneurs as AI removes human bias from deal-making - Why he decided to back @Otomato_xyz and what it actually is And much more... Podcast out this week!
MR SHIFT 🦁 tweet media
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Coinsilium
Coinsilium@CoinsiliumGroup·
…and this! ⬇️
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Coinsilium
Coinsilium@CoinsiliumGroup·
#PredictAlphaReport #3 out now 👀
MR SHIFT 🦁@KevinWSHPod

Gm Folks We are back! This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of event-driven finance and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead. But first, let’s get this part out of the way: Always DYOR: This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post. Now, let’s get started. Here are the highlights: 💸 Capital Signals 👉More Than 90% 👉Make money, Cut Costs 👉And More To Come 👉Still Waiting on The SEC 👉Gibraltar Moves Early 👉Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs 📈 Industry Pulse 👉JP says Be Cautious 👉Regulations V Prediction Markets 👉DeepBook Predict on Sui 👉Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers 👉Brazil Says No 👉Confidence or Accuracy? 💸 Capital Signals 💰 More Than 90% Kalshi just raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in a Series F round led by Coatue, with backing from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, ARK Invest, and others. What makes this stand out is that just five months ago, Kalshi was valued at $11 billion, and around $5 billion less than a year earlier. Few sectors outside AI have seen that kind of acceleration. The growth behind the raise helps explain the enthusiasm. Kalshi says annualised trading volume has jumped from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months, while institutional activity on the platform rose 800% over the same period. The company now claims more than 90% of US prediction market activity, alongside roughly $1.5 billion in annualised revenue and two million monthly users. 💰Make money, Cut Costs DraftKings beat profit expectations this quarter, but there’s a bigger story. The sports betting giant reported $1.65 billion in quarterly revenue alongside stronger-than-expected earnings, while CEO Jason Robins pointed to prediction markets as a key strategic focus going forward. DraftKings says integrating prediction products directly into its main app cut customer acquisition costs by more than 80% in April, giving the company a cheaper way to retain and monetise users without relying solely on expensive sportsbook promotions. Robins also framed prediction markets as a hedge against shifting gambling regulation. 💰And More To Come Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has now committed another $600 million to prediction market platform Polymarket as part of a broader plan to invest up to $2 billion into the company. While Polymarket’s latest valuation has not been formally disclosed, earlier rounds reportedly placed the company near $9 billion, with more recent fundraising discussions pushing implied valuations closer to $15 billion. Meanwhile, 💰Still Waiting on The SEC The SEC has delayed a wave of proposed prediction market ETFs that were expected to launch this week, putting at least 24 funds from issuers like Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares on hold while regulators take a closer look at how the products would work and the risks involved. The ETFs were designed to give investors exposure to political and economic outcomes, from the 2028 US election to recession odds and tech-sector layoffs, effectively packaging prediction market activity into traditional public-market products. 💰Consensus 2026: Gibraltar Moves Early to Establish Dedicated Prediction Markets Regulatory Framework During an interview with CoinDesk at Consensus Miami 2026, Nigel Feetham KC MP, Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, said Gibraltar is positioning itself at the forefront of the prediction markets sector through a dedicated regulatory framework designed to support innovation while providing legal clarity for operators. Speaking at Consensus, he confirmed that Gibraltar has already passed legislation to licence and regulate prediction market operators and has issued its first licence to a company owned by the Abu Dhabi Sovereign Wealth Fund. Feetham said Gibraltar aims to move beyond the traditional debate of whether prediction markets should be classified as gambling or financial services by creating a dedicated regime tailored specifically to the sector. He added that Gibraltar’s flexible licensing structure has enabled the jurisdiction to move quickly and maintain a first-mover advantage in this emerging area of digital finance. And rounding up this section: 💰 Coinsilium Group Expands Strategic Collaboration with Predictive Labs Following Investment and Advisory Agreement Coinsilium has entered into a Strategic Advisory Services Agreement with @Predictive_Labs following its recent US$150,000 investment via convertible preference shares. Under the agreement, Coinsilium will support Predictive Labs across areas including go-to-market strategy, financial structuring, and operational scaling, while the appointment of its CEO, @eddybitcoin, as an advisor is expected to further strengthen collaboration between the two organisations. Predictive Labs has also launched its new website (predictivelabs dot io), outlining its positioning as a data intelligence platform for prediction markets and event-driven finance. 📌 FYI: Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF". But it’s not just capital flowing into the space. Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure. 📈 Industry Pulse ⚡️JP says Be Cautious JPMorgan has reportedly issued internal guidance warning employees to be cautious when trading on prediction market platforms. The bank did not ban participation outright, but CEO Jamie Dimon advised employees to avoid contracts connected to sectors they work in professionally and warned against using any confidential or nonpublic information when placing trades. The move highlights a growing tension at the centre of the prediction market boom. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket attract more users, liquidity, and institutional attention, concerns around insider information are becoming harder to separate from the product itself. Unlike sports betting, many event contracts revolve around politics, economics, regulation, or company-specific outcomes, areas where financial professionals could potentially hold informational advantages. ⚡️Regulations V Prediction Markets The regulatory battle around prediction markets is escalating quickly. CFTC has now sued Wisconsin after the state launched legal actions against Kalshi, Polymarket, Cryptodotcom, Robinhood, and Coinbase over their prediction market offerings. Wisconsin had argued the platforms were violating state gambling laws, while the CFTC responded by asserting that these products fall under federal commodities regulation, not state gaming oversight. The lawsuit is part of a much broader clash between federal regulators and individual states over who actually controls event-contract markets. The CFTC has already filed similar actions against New York, Connecticut, and Illinois, while also supporting prediction-market companies in ongoing court battles elsewhere. Chairman Michael Selig made the agency’s position unusually direct, warning states that attempts to interfere with federally regulated financial markets would be challenged aggressively in court. At the same time, Kalshi faced tough questioning this week from Massachusetts’ highest court as judges weighed whether the state can block the company from offering sports-related event contracts without a gaming licence. During oral arguments, several justices openly questioned how Kalshi’s products differ from traditional sports betting, with one judge bluntly describing the platform as simply “a way to bet on a game.” The case sits at the centre of a much larger fight over who gets to control prediction markets as the industry scales. Kalshi argues that because it operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), states should not have the authority to intervene. State regulators see it differently, arguing that sports event contracts effectively function as gambling products and should fall under local gaming laws, including restrictions around licensing and age requirements. ⚡️DeepBook Predict on Sui @DeepBookonSui has launched “DeepBook Predict” on the @SuiNetwork testnet, expanding its infrastructure stack beyond spot and margin trading into prediction markets, options, and programmable financial products. The new system lets developers build everything from Polymarket-style binary markets to leveraged ETFs and structured products directly on-chain, using shared liquidity across the ecosystem. The platform is also integrating pricing infrastructure from @BlockScholes, bringing institutional-style options pricing into a decentralised environment with sub-second settlement speeds. DeepBook argues that most prediction markets today are “dead-end” systems where positions can only be bought or sold. Predict, by contrast, is designed to make those positions composable, meaning they can be leveraged, used as collateral, combined into spreads, or integrated into broader financial products in the same ecosystem. ⚡️Kalshi, Polymarket, Consumers Kalshi is rolling out a new set of consumer protection measures aimed at keeping minors off its platform and monitoring signs of unhealthy trading behaviour as political scrutiny around prediction markets intensifies. The company says users will now face additional identity verification measures, including facial recognition checks, optional two-factor authentication, and behaviour-based safeguards such as suggested deposit limits for accounts showing signs of excessive losses or risky activity. The changes come as prediction markets increasingly find themselves pulled into the broader debate around online gambling and youth participation. Sports leagues, lawmakers, and advocacy groups have started raising concerns that platforms like Kalshi could expose younger users, particularly young men, to addictive financial behaviour under the framing of “trading” rather than gambling. The NBA and PGA Tour recently pushed for the minimum trading age to be raised to 21, while new legislation introduced in the Senate would require stricter age verification and self-exclusion programmes across the sector. Meanwhile, A new Financial Times opinion piece is pushing for stricter identity verification on prediction market platforms like Polymarket, arguing that anonymous trading creates growing risks around insider trading, market manipulation, and fake volume generation. The article cited research suggesting that as much as 60% of Polymarket trading activity in late 2024 may have involved wash trading, a practice where traders effectively trade with themselves to artificially inflate market activity and liquidity. ⚡️Brazil Says No Brazil has blocked access to major prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, as part of a broader crackdown on unlicensed betting-style services. Authorities said the decision was driven by consumer protection concerns, arguing that these platforms offer event-based financial products without fitting cleanly under either gambling or derivatives regulation. Telecommunications regulator Anatel moved quickly to restrict access, with dozens of platforms reportedly affected. As prediction markets continue expanding globally, Brazil’s response could become an early blueprint for how other emerging economies handle the sector, particularly in regions already concerned about online gambling, retail speculation, and rising household debt. ⚡️Confidence or Accuracy? Several new AI research papers are using live prediction markets as testing grounds for autonomous trading agents, with projects like Prediction Arena, PolyBench, and PolySwarm evaluating how LLMs perform when asked to forecast outcomes, place trades, and react to changing market conditions. Some experiments used real capital, while others relied on simulated order books designed to mirror how prediction markets behave in practice. The early takeaway is that AI agents are getting better at participating in markets, but they are still far from consistently making reliable decisions. Researchers found major differences between models and platforms, especially when it came to probability calibration, which is the ability to judge uncertainty accurately rather than simply producing a confident-sounding answer. And that’s it! Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report. Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e, twice a month. Till then, Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family. Full Disclaimer All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided. Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment. The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

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Edge needs 2 numbers. Most track 1... A trader who stares at a Polymarket price and decides whether it 'feels right' has already lost the measurement. The price is the consensus by construction. Agreeing with it produces no edge! Edge requires 2 numbers: The market price (call it P_market) and your private probability (call it P_user). Logged before you saw the price, ideally before you searched the news. Edge equals P_user minus P_market. A 5-cent edge across 100 trades is what builds a track record ; but a 5-cent edge measured retrospectively, after the price was already in your head, is anchoring dressed as analysis! The discipline costs nothing. Open a notebook. For every market you intend to trade, write the date, the contract, your probability. Close the notebook. Then look at the price. When did you last log a probability before checking the market? #PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Forecasting
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