Probability Exchange

834 posts

Probability Exchange banner
Probability Exchange

Probability Exchange

@ProbabilityEx

Probex is a news-driven probability exchange: it watches prediction markets and news in real time, then surfaces the most interesting mispricings and hedges.

D/FW Katılım Kasım 2025
1K Takip Edilen565 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Probability Exchange
Probability Exchange@ProbabilityEx·
There's a reason I've temporarily quit working on Probability Exchange. I've been busy with my other projects. Don't think for one second I won't be back and when I do, I promise another refresh of the site. In the meantime, here's part of what I've been working on. I will pay a commission for any business you send my way. randi.agency/services.html
English
3
2
6
356
Probability Exchange
Probability Exchange@ProbabilityEx·
Thousands of people of people were dying during COVID. If Trump hadn't so thoroughly bungled the response to COVID, the Biden administration would have had a much easier time making these types of decisions that I'm sure they didn't just make without a lot of thought and reflection.
English
1
0
0
17
Hunter Savirino
Hunter Savirino@HunterSavirino·
@ProbabilityEx @mtgreenee Completely disagree. A lot of the information censored was actually correct information. Even if you hate what is being said, you can’t just shut down what anyone says. That’s fascist behavior. Doesn’t make republicans correct in this case
English
1
0
1
55
Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸
Marjorie Taylor Greene 🇺🇸@mtgreenee·
I’m shocked, but I’m not. The Biden admin and Democrats literally worked with social media companies to censor people. My account I’m using right now was permanently banned, only brought back because Elon bought Twitter. But this shows you how badly Trump and Republicans have failed. This is the result of turning MAGA into MIGA, becoming big tech’s biggest defender, and trying to put a 10 yr moratorium on states to make laws and regulations on AI. Republicans brought it on themselves.
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers

Who is a bigger threat to free speech 🔴 Republicans 42% 🔵 Democrats 28% YouGov - A - 4/27

English
1.8K
805
5.7K
489.4K
Political Polls
Political Polls@PpollingNumbers·
Poll - Who will win the Texas Senate seat in 2026
English
88
149
193
56.5K
Probability Exchange
Probability Exchange@ProbabilityEx·
@RobertJMolnar Everybody that doesn't agree with MAGA is a liberal by default. I live amongst them. I've heard it all.
English
0
0
4
115
Chili Dog
Chili Dog@RobertJMolnar·
really don't get why there are so many MAGA calling me a far left progressive liberal extremist it is pretty funny though my full name is right there to google
English
22
6
204
5.9K
Probability Exchange
Probability Exchange@ProbabilityEx·
@GinaHinojosaTX I don't live in Texas but I grew up there and I support your efforts in bringing back the state I love from the abyss of corruption.
English
0
0
1
37
Gina Hinojosa
Gina Hinojosa@GinaHinojosaTX·
A new poll has us leading Abbott by 19 points with Latino voters! Texans are sick and tired of Greg Abbott’s corruption. We’re ready for change and Latinos are ready in a big way.
Gina Hinojosa tweet media
English
334
991
3.6K
88.4K
Scott Jennings
Scott Jennings@ScottJenningsKY·
Year of our Lord 2026: Democrat US Senator openly rooting for Iran to defeat the US in battle. Every Dem on the Hill ought to be hounded today by every reporter to answer for this lunatic.
Scott Jennings tweet media
English
4.5K
14.4K
51K
2.4M
ThePatrioticBlonde™🇺🇸
ThePatrioticBlonde™🇺🇸@ImBreckWorsham·
The weakest comments in my social media are "You voted for this." That is SUCH a weak, pathetic comment. Yes. I did. Yes, I worked this guy's campaign. I OWN it. But have you NEVER made a mistake? Never broken up with someone because you realized you were dating the wrong person? Never quit a job that wasn't right for you? Never bought something and had to return it because it didn't work? Sit down.
English
4.1K
159
2.1K
245.4K
Probability Exchange
Probability Exchange@ProbabilityEx·
@maddenifico I told a triple Trumper I used to work with that he is the dumbest person I personally know. I meant it too.
English
0
0
0
16
Bill Madden
Bill Madden@maddenifico·
I challenge any other modern democratic country to prove that their populace is dumber than America's. Y'all can't do it. The election of Trump, especially the second term, cements America as the dumbest modern nation in history.
Bill Madden tweet media
English
5.3K
11.1K
43.3K
724.3K
Mehdi Hasan
Mehdi Hasan@mehdirhasan·
I tried to tell people who didn’t vote Dem in 2024 ‘to teach Democrats a lesson’ that sadly Democrats will never learn that lesson. Here’s Booker simply attacking and mocking people who didn’t show up to vote Dem. It’s always the voters’ fault, never the Dems or their candidates.
best of kamala harris@archivekamala

.@CoryBooker: “You may disagree with her [Kamala Harris] on 10% of her views, but you let someone get in office who you disagree with on everything. You let somebody get in office who is locking up our children. You let somebody in office who is taking away our healthcare.”

English
1K
932
5.9K
447.4K
Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
Support Marty, he’s a cool dude
Marty O'Donnell@MartyTheElder

🚨 I am truly honored to have the support of President Donald J. Trump! The stakes this midterm could not be higher. That's why when I started running, I promised I would drop out unless President Trump supported me so that Republicans could avoid wasting resources on a needless primary. Much like President Trump, I didn’t come from the world of politics. I spent my entire career in the business world. I had the honor of working with some incredible people and composing music for some of the greatest video games of all time. I'm not going to DC for fame or money. I'm going because I'm a grandfather who deeply cares about what type of country his grandchildren will grow up in. I appreciate the trust that the President has put in me and look forward to working with him in Congress to continue delivering for working families and keeping our nation safe. Now, it's time to ramp this thing into high gear and RETIRE Susie Lee in November.

English
6.4K
25.2K
136.3K
16.8M
Probability Exchange
Probability Exchange@ProbabilityEx·
@benwfreeman1 I think the biggest negative endorsement will be any candidate Trump endorses. The longer this war in Iran drags on the more toxic his endorsement will become.
English
0
0
0
18
Benjamin Freeman
Benjamin Freeman@benwfreeman1·
This is a really interesting explanation that is probably somewhat correct. These “negative” endorsements aren’t causal, but probably are “negative signals” If anyone has a good visualization of the correlation between certain endorsements and margin, I’d love to see it!
Jesse🔸⏹️@PoliticalKiwi

Dems turn in a pretty weak +12 overperformance over Harris turnout in NJ-11. Given the turnout edge, it seems Mejia didn't do well in persuasion. This is v unsurprising to me. Check out her endorsements from the primary. I've underlined the ones that are negative signals.

English
1
0
3
652
CA ET Nerd
CA ET Nerd@earlyvotedata·
@ProbabilityEx Not what polling is showing so far, older voters are keeping them in the game. So far
English
1
0
0
47
CA ET Nerd
CA ET Nerd@earlyvotedata·
The single biggest factor of the midterms could be Seniors sticking with the GOP. As much as people don’t like conflicts or care about the stock market, if that drives older voters to the GOP it’ll keep them in the game significantly.
(((Harry Enten)))@ForecasterEnten

For all the talk of young voters, seniors are a far more reliable voting bloc. Trump's approval is the highest with seniors for a 21st century prez at this point in a 2nd term & holding steady... It's a big reason the Dems taking back the Senate is not going to be easy.

English
6
16
186
5.3K
Probability Exchange
Probability Exchange@ProbabilityEx·
@CAGlenn1998 @benwfreeman1 The first administration was a dumpster fire. Why would anyone expect this one to go any different, especially when you consider he actually had serious people working for him in his first administration.
English
1
0
0
11
Chili Dog
Chili Dog@RobertJMolnar·
Rubio is close to making himself DOA I have predicted for months now that Rubio is going to be the big fish that leaves the Trump admin shortly after the midterm destruction of the GOP House majority, rendering Trump in complete utter lame duckery as Dems go full blast on impeaching him, and dragging all of his folks into under oath committee hearings If i was Rubio, I would just jump, now, pull the rip chord, launch your 2028 POTUS campaign, and get out ahead of the shitshow that is upon us Marco, you are getting nothing out of this....you know better than anybody, the longer you sit next to Trump, the more your future is fucked I like Marco....but he is getting close to losing my fancy I really want to see a Gavin vs Marco battle....2 young bucks.....no more of these old fogies....let them battle also, lol JD Vance
GIF
ClementineUhOh 💙🗽🏇🌷@ClementineUhOh

@RobertJMolnar Take Vance too. 😁 Make Rubio (whom I don’t like but hey) Speaker & voila we have a sane & politically experienced president. And you all have a shot at winning 28. I prefer a sane R to the ongoing total disaster & destruction.

English
11
6
55
6.6K

Keşfet

@DanielTurnerPTF @benwfreeman1 @mtgreenee @SenRandPaul @AronGrner1 @PpollingNumbers @RobertJMolnar @GinaHinojosaTX