Luke Tryl@LukeTryl
Every by-election attracts attention, but Gorton and Denton is one of those rare by-elections where the word seismic might be useful, because it will have all sorts of narrative impacts:
Here are some of different scenarios:
Labour win: PM vindicated in Burnham block, things aren't as bad as they look in worst polls, greens aren't splitting the left vote as much, their GOTV still works, Macron strategy against Reform feasible. Maybe worst end of May avoidable.
Reform win: Progressive tactical voting isn't organised enough to stop them, or is even counter productive to stopping Reform ~30% national polling could lead to big majority. Polarising candidates don't hurt. Further momentum heading into May.
Green win: Polanski enthusiasm surge is real and can be turned into votes, huge swathes of normally reliable Labour vote (students and muslim voters in particular) are up for grabs - bodes well for London locals and beyond. Can't win here barrier weakened.
But also the consequences of various losses is just as important:
Labour lose with Greens 1st or 2nd: Macron strategy for Labour is blown out of the water, especially after Caerphilly, becomes really hard for Labour to say hold your nose to stop Reform as full-fat left version does better
Reform lose: Tactical voting is a real barrier to Reform for second time in a row, will place a real premium on broadening tent beyond 30%. Maybe allows Tories to start making argument Reform are such drivers of TV only they can take on Labour. Is Advance hurting them at all?
Greens come third: If Reform win allows Labour to point to them as spoilers in other contests, if Labour win shows they aren't eating into left vote anywhere near as much.
Of course in reality there may only be a handful of votes between any of these scenarios so we shouldn't draw those conclusions, but that's not how by-election narratives work, placement matters.
