Jane Green

🚨 NEW: The latest Gorton and Denton by-election poll 🟢 GRN - 28% 🔴 LAB - 28% ➡️ REF - 27% 🔵 CON - 6% 🔶 LD - 4% ⚪ Other - 6% Via Opinium, 401 sample, 16–24 Feb

Every by-election attracts attention, but Gorton and Denton is one of those rare by-elections where the word seismic might be useful, because it will have all sorts of narrative impacts: Here are some of different scenarios: Labour win: PM vindicated in Burnham block, things aren't as bad as they look in worst polls, greens aren't splitting the left vote as much, their GOTV still works, Macron strategy against Reform feasible. Maybe worst end of May avoidable. Reform win: Progressive tactical voting isn't organised enough to stop them, or is even counter productive to stopping Reform ~30% national polling could lead to big majority. Polarising candidates don't hurt. Further momentum heading into May. Green win: Polanski enthusiasm surge is real and can be turned into votes, huge swathes of normally reliable Labour vote (students and muslim voters in particular) are up for grabs - bodes well for London locals and beyond. Can't win here barrier weakened. But also the consequences of various losses is just as important: Labour lose with Greens 1st or 2nd: Macron strategy for Labour is blown out of the water, especially after Caerphilly, becomes really hard for Labour to say hold your nose to stop Reform as full-fat left version does better Reform lose: Tactical voting is a real barrier to Reform for second time in a row, will place a real premium on broadening tent beyond 30%. Maybe allows Tories to start making argument Reform are such drivers of TV only they can take on Labour. Is Advance hurting them at all? Greens come third: If Reform win allows Labour to point to them as spoilers in other contests, if Labour win shows they aren't eating into left vote anywhere near as much. Of course in reality there may only be a handful of votes between any of these scenarios so we shouldn't draw those conclusions, but that's not how by-election narratives work, placement matters.

The journalists who cover the Pentagon had to choose today between signing a pledge that would make it impossible to do independent journalism and turning in their Pentagon press badges. Almost all of them turned in their badges and left the building.

With Conservatives and Labour support in decline, could become a LD-Reform contest! With the caveat that this is now, now then…. I don’t think Danny Kruger is the kind of MP to do this for electoral reasons, primarily. He has strong beliefs. But he must be hoping he’ll stay.

There's been a lot of people coming out to say that the next deputy leader has got to be A) a woman and B) northern. But I feel like this analysis misses the whole point of Angela Rayner. Yes she's a woman. Yes she's from the north. Yes she has an incredible back story. But she wasn't such an effective deputy leader just because of those things. Angela Rayner has a big personality. She doesn't talk or act like a politician. She's vaping and DJing and laughing and speaking her mind. As a politician, she's a great communicator and she's also a risk taker. In other words... she was the perfect foil to Keir Starmer. And that's what you want above all from a deputy leader... someone who brings something to the team that they don't already have. So there are lots of names who on paper might have the same qualities as Angela Rayner... gender, geography, or whatever... but in reality, are nothing like her at all.

I just got a “as we prepare for the upcoming semester” email. It should be illegal to send these in July!