Property Rights Australia (PRA)

Very glad to have collaborated with Robert on this piece in the @australian. I'll come back tomorrow with some more details on the numbers. TLDR: Estimates of transmission costs have proven worse than useless. The few precedents we have suggest a disaster ahead.

Here's the part nobody's talking about in the fuel crisis. It doesn't matter how many tankers we divert to Australia if there's nowhere to put the fuel when it arrives. Our total national fuel storage: ~7.5 billion litres. The IEA 90-day obligation requires ~14.5 billion. That's a 7 billion litre gap that existed long before Hormuz closed. The crisis didn't create the shortage — it exposed a storage deficit we've been ignoring for a decade. Building permanent tank farms takes 3-5 years and costs $1,500-3,000 per cubic metre. Too slow. The fastest fix? Industrial fuel bladders. Military-grade pillow tanks — up to 760,000 litres each — deployed on flat ground in weeks. Unused airfields, mine sites, military bases. The ADF already uses them. NATO uses them. The mining industry uses them across the Pilbara. 3,000 bladders = ~2.3 billion litres of emergency storage. That's ~14 extra days of national fuel supply. Deployable in 3-6 months. Cost: $150-300 million. All in. For context, the fuel excise cut alone costs $1.5 billion per month. We're spending more on a discount at the bowser every two weeks than it would cost to build the emergency storage that prevents the next crisis. It's a rubber bag on a concrete pad. It's not glamorous. But it's the only thing that moves fast enough. I've modelled the full storage gap at fuelaustralia.org/bridge-the-gap

Their recommendations actually do include more reserves... But also an aggressive push to domestic refinement and feedstock production as well, with coal-to-liquids ruled in as a contender, arguing costs of these interventions aren't extreme, and worthwhile. 18/

There are some sobering words on biofuels. They've done the scale calculation, and point out that we'd need nearly triple of our cropping land under canola to make enough biodiesel. And ethanol doesn't help much, and only with petrol. 16/

So the paper ends up with an all-of-the-above approach on feedstocks, but doesn't shy away from the conclusion that some coal or gas conversions will probably be needed. Which seems likely, given the diesel need for long molecules, and our oil tending very light/condensate. 15/

Key fact... The main subsidy to remaining refineries actually hasn't been needed. With just a tiny $37million drawn down since 2021! 14/

There's an optimistic (but plausible) case that refinery margins on diesel have actually expanded considerably post Ukraine, and the subsidies required to support domestic refining might not be large at all. 13/

The diesel share defines the structure of the problem for Australia, because it interacts with available feedstocks. Most of our crude production is condensate, which could (theoretically) have high petrol yield. But you need a large share of longer molecules to get diesel. 11/

This is a stunning chart, which is essential to understanding the current problem. I'd pointed out a while back that petrol is only 25% of demand. But the shift towards diesel from the 70s is profound. 10/ x.com/FootnotesGuy/s…

Australia was handed one of the greatest starting positions of any country in history Massive mineral wealth. Abundant energy. World-class beaches. Amazing climate. No fault lines... no earthquakes or tsunamis If you gave a 12-year-old this setup in a civilisation-building game, they'd build a paradise Instead, we got decades of useless politicians on both sides of the aisle who couldn't run a sausage sizzle at Bunnings without a $4 billion feasibility study and a royal commission Australia isn't unlucky. It's grossly mismanaged

Our Energy Future. Listening to the shills of EV owner’s and solar panel disciples to the cries of “Drill, Baby, Drill", to me they are no more than two sides of the same coin. Their messaging is no different: just more, more, more. Neither really care about their impact as long as it fits their narrative. What I really want to see in an energy policy for this country, is: 1. Independence and 2. Efficiency The first is now bleedingly obvious to every-one. Relying almost entirely on the rest of the world and more importantly some pretty ordinary actors probably wasn’t a good idea. Who would’a guessed relying on fuel & oil from the Middle East & Russia, solar panels and wind turbines from China was not only a risky play, but in fact had the potential to cause increased environmental harm, reduced social justice, harmony, a completely un-level playing field and take us to the verge of WWIII. Do we need to drill? – yes. Do we need to get the regulatory settings right so that we can manufacture our own? – yes. Do we need to get Government the bloody hell out of the road? – hell yes. The second: efficiency, is absolutely vital to actually achieve the first. Our current policy has done nothing other than harm our society, increasing price and decreasing reliability. Our so called national energy “market” (called a “market” but a pure Government invention), is nothing but a farse and must immediately go. If we build solar and wind farms that rely on back up from power sources that can’t ramp up and down, then we are doing nothing other than overlaying expense and profligate waste. Likewise if our EV that makes us feel good is plugged into a hydrocarbon power source, well…... Coal fired power stations backing up our roof top solar is nothing but a joke, on both ends. The coal fired power station is now becoming increasingly inefficient because for half of every day, they can’t sell the output, yet they have to burn the coal regardless. With a business model like that they can’t invest in maintenance and improvement, therefore now burning more coal to produce their energy output. I think roof top solar is fabulous, if you’ve got a battery, great, BUT you are actually not helping at all until you unplug the lead from the coal fired power station. In fact you are doing nothing other than creating waste. You use resources, critical minerals to build a short term, intermittent generator, you feel virtuous, but at the same time you demand that the coal is burnt regardless, day in, day out, just in case you get a few cloudy days. That is not saving the environment, it is just wilful greed and largess. If you hooked the same system up to diesel or natural gas generators as backup, bobs your uncle you are now looking at a system that is starting to make sense. I felt each one of you flinch when I said the word diesel or natural gas, that is how climate indoctrination is actually destroying our environment, by making us avoid the most efficient systems, the systems that would evolve if our “market” was in fact a free market devoid of Government subsidy. One of the biggest jokes in the current system are the large scale industrial batteries. Huge users of resources and critical minerals to build with short life spans, that are currently being deployed basically to game the “market”. Their existence is solely reliant on the crazy level of pricing volatility inbuilt in our inefficient system. We are completely missing the opportunities for true innovation in both energy usage and efficiency because of Government consistently picking the “winners” and subsidising them. Game changers like waste heat recovery, co and tri-generation, don't sound as sexy as solar panels and EVs. We have a lot of natural gas, currently almost all of it is being shipped off shore. The first instinct is: let’s ban them from exporting it… Instead why don’t we ask ourselves, why is it more profitable for them to load it on a ship burning about 4 tonnes of fuel an hour and transport it half way across the world - why? More importantly if any of this has any chance of success, whether drilling for oil or building a future made in Australia, we need an ultra-bold government with a purist dedication to absolute property rights, very small Government and the correct competition settings. If we don’t get those settings right, “drill, baby, drill” turns into: global corporate wades in, destroys our farm land, rapes our resources and ships it all off shore for some other country to generate the economic return, leaving the petrol pumps still empty (much like our current gas industry). Or the other side of the current coin: Foreign renewable giant, destroys farmland and conservation land alike, milks the tax payer and does nothing other than overlay waste, transferring our hard earned dollars off shore as fast as the gas ships lined up at port. The time for genuine change is now. A once in a lifetime opportunity to reset a very long period of deterioration for our great nation. Politicians - Your advisors will tell you that the above argument is too big to take to an election, that your constituents require a three word dumbed down tag line for a hapless population to grasp. That the agenda is too big to take to an election. I for one will be voting for the team that can put forward the most comprehensive, cohesive argument for unalienable property rights, sovereignty and a made in Australia future achieved by smaller government, much, much smaller. If you are still struggling with the messaging, then grab a chainsaw…..

We are now spending way more on big business handouts thanks to net zero and the high energy prices it has unleashed, than we ever spent on the car industry.

🚨 AUSTRALIA IS BEING ASKED TO ADAPT — BECAUSE ITS GOVERNMENT FAILED TO PREPARE The Albanese government is now telling Australians: The shocks are coming. The months ahead won’t be easy. Everyone must “do their bit.” But here’s the real question: Why are Australians being asked to carry the burden… For a crisis the government should have prepared for? This is not leadership. This is damage control. Cutting fuel excise for three months is not a solution. It is a temporary patch. Telling people: “Use public transport” “Don’t take more fuel than you need” “Think of others” Is not a strategy. It is an admission. An admission that: Australia is exposed Australia is vulnerable Australia is dependent Because after years of policy decisions: Energy security was not prioritised Domestic production was not strengthened Resilience was not built And now the consequences are arriving. Farmers need diesel. Truckers need fuel. Supply chains depend on both. You cannot run a country on good intentions and short-term measures. And yet that is exactly what is being offered: Temporary tax cuts Public messaging Hope that global supply holds Hope is not policy. At a time when global energy routes are under pressure… When supply chains are tightening… When costs are rising rapidly… Australians are being told to adjust their behaviour… Instead of seeing a government that has already secured their future. This is the difference between: Preparation And reaction And right now… Australia is reacting. The months ahead may not be easy. But they didn’t have to be this uncertain. Strong leadership anticipates crises. Weak leadership explains them after they arrive.

1000s of years actually

South Africa shows that a country without much oil does not have to accept permanent fuel dependence. Coal-to-liquid fuels already works in the real world. South African company Sasol’s current operations break even at around US$35 to US$55 a barrel (well below what prices have been for the past two decades), it does not receive a subsidy or price guarantee, and South African fuel prices are not higher as a result. Coal can be turned into petrol, diesel, jet fuel and a wide range of chemicals, and the same pathway is already being pursued in China through projects built at 80,000 barrels a day. Australia has the resource base to do this too. We are rich in cheap lignite, Victoria alone holds 33 billion tonnes of known economic lignite, and the opportunity is large enough to move well beyond niche production. But why coal? Why go to the trouble of converting coal into liquid fuel when we can just drill into our existing untapped oil? Well, Australia’s remaining conventional oil is increasingly light and condensate-heavy, while our economy is diesel-heavy. Without significant heavier grades of oil, it is practically impossible to meet our diesel-heavy demand from our own resources. Coal-to-liquids helps solve that problem by producing the larger molecules needed for diesel and aviation fuel, not only more petrol.

Sunrise project. The hidden funds behind environmental destruction. An expose by Greg Brown in The Australian. theaustralian.com.au/nation/the-sun…

@comical_engr Australia is a diesel economy. The end.

As an engineer working in the energy sector here is how I would solve our energy crisis: Cancel net zero, what Australia does in this space is pointless. Given our isolation have one year's storage of petroleum products. Build an energy sector that utilises all of our bountiful resources, such as gas, coal, nuclear and some renewables (rooftop solar, geothermal, hydro) Prioritise energy security and cost to consumer. Build refinery capacity to meet our local needs. The refineries should be flexible to support different oil crudes. For energy exports follow the Qatar model, local use first then export to drive down costs. Drill baby drill and consider technology such as Gas to Liquids and biodiesel to shore up our oil reserves. Produce all of our own fertiliser and adblue locally. The gulf crisis has shown the folly of our current approach. Whatever the question is Hydrogen is not the answer. @PaulineHansonOz #auspol

ABC being just a bit “conniving“ maybe?

Ok, maybe I will go drive a truck during Question Time. Australians know that everything they buy at the supermarket or online, comes on the back of a truck. The current fuel supply crisis will only add to Labor’s homegrown inflation. Without trucks, Australia stops. #auspol #trucking #fuel #petrol