Matt | PublicThink

12 posts

Matt | PublicThink

Matt | PublicThink

@PublicThinkOrg

Who decides what gets studied? We're building PublicThink. It's a place for the public to set the research agenda.

Katılım Nisan 2026
84 Takip Edilen0 Takipçiler
Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@lakens It keeps getting worse. There's no cost to using AI unchecked, so now we can't trust the critiques to be anything better than AI slop. We need harsh consequences for fabricated citations in peer criticism. I wonder if libel laws apply here.
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Daniël Lakens
Daniël Lakens@lakens·
New blog post: Evaluating Dr. Cuddy’s Claim that the Debunking of Power Posing is a Myth. daniellakens.blogspot.com/2026/05/evalua… On an AI generated description of a non-existent study, incorrectly citing findings from studies, and the importance of scientific criticism.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@robinhanson I think in general, people have lost their curiosity and drive to learn new things because times are rough right now, even so… some people really do have a skill for pulling people in regardless.
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Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson@robinhanson·
Except, I know lots of innovative things I could explain to a smart 5yo who was willing to listen carefully. But when you talk on sensitive topics, the big problem is folks unwilling to listen.
Sahil Bloom@SahilBloom

This is a major life hack: Richard Feynman was known for his ability to convey complex ideas in simple, elegant ways. Remember this rule the next time someone tries to fast talk you with a bunch of fancy words, acronyms, and jargon...

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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@davidmanheim The strawman lands because there’s no scoreboard. When predictions live as scattered tweets, anyone can claim mostly-right and anyone can cherry-pick misses.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@lakens Making public claims without due diligence causes real harm. A private correction doesn't reach the million people who saw the original. All future posts should have to link the retraction. The people who were misled deserve the same reach the false claim got.
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Daniël Lakens
Daniël Lakens@lakens·
If a scientist uses AI to make strong claims in public about the scientific literature, and some references do not exist, and the generated text does not correcfly reflect the findings, should we inform them privately to fix the text or should we share this information publicly?
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@hankgreen GLP-1s are thrilling, but I keep thinking about peptides. They have equal or greater potential but are barely studied, because you can't patent a peptide the way you can patent semaglutide. We're leaving breakthroughs on the table because there's no profit in them.
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Hank Green
Hank Green@hankgreen·
This is very, very interesting but not proof of effect. They looked at a large group of people with diabetes, some taking GLP-1s, some taking DPP-4 inhibitors (another medicine for type 2 diabetes). The ones who had cancer and were taking GLP-1s, on average, had significantly better outcomes than a matched group on DPP-4 inhibitors. A lot of different things could cause those different outcomes, including that there is something different about those two groups. People who get prescribed GLP-1s might be healthier, wealthier, have better healthcare habits, etc. But it's an extremely enticing signal and there are several plausible mechanisms by which GLP-1 drugs might help with cancer treatment, so...expect clinical trials!
The Wall Street Journal@WSJ

The world’s most popular weight-loss and diabetes drugs are linked to a powerful new possible benefit: better outcomes for cancer patients. on.wsj.com/3RBfcXO

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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
Building things is the part I love. But eventually you have to let people see it, and if nobody cares, it goes nowhere. I love what I built and I think it should exist. I just don't want it lost to internet oblivion.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@Noahpinion I agree. There were already more incentives to publish bad work than to find it and correct it. Now the volume is overwhelming even the verification tools that existed. I don't have a good answer to where you find the trustworthy work anymore.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@StatModeling Rigor doesn't pay and sloppiness doesn't cost. That's the actual problem. There's no reward for tracing a citation carefully, and no real penalty for passing on a claim you never verified. The sensational version always travels faster than the correction.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@TheStalwart @adamjkucharski So... Copilot described UK responses as more understated, US as more emphatic. Both are actual cultural stereotypes. Kucharski had copy-pasted 2,000 responses and relabelled them. To me, it looks like LLMs tend to reproduce what sounds right, not what the data says.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
At PublicThink, open submission means anyone can post anything, which is a problem. My current solution is very simple. A Discord bot pings my phone every time a question comes in and I review it personally. Then, good questions should rise to the top through voting.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
@RaoulRuparel The timeline might be the deeper problem. A serious RCT takes 18 months to 2 years from design to publication. By then the model is several generations old. More RCTs don't obviously fix that. Probably needs something closer to ongoing monitoring than periodic studies.
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Raoul Ruparel
Raoul Ruparel@RaoulRuparel·
The more I get into studying & researching the economics of AI, the clearer it is that we are desperately in need of more randomised control trials (RCTs) & other systematic assessments of the potential time saved, quality improvements, or other measures of productivity gains from AI. Especially at the occupation or sector level, with outputs that are usable as inputs into macro models (this is important). As far as I can tell, pretty much every academic study on the productivity effects of AI rests on the same 3 or 4 RCTs or studies, then draws some generalised lessons. 1) This is a very thin & increasingly outdated evidence base. In fact, many of the RCTs rest on GPT-4 level models, we're well past that obviously. 2) It creates a massive clustering within the research. It also means that the input assumptions become the main variation/difference. This isn't necessarily bad but it means we really need to be aware & stress test the assumptions' credibility. 3) There is a huge lack of nuance, granularity, & consistency of detail across tasks/occupations/sectors. If I were working at a university or one of the tech firms I think this would be one of the most impactful research efforts to undertake. Would feed into a huge array of academic work.
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Matt | PublicThink
Matt | PublicThink@PublicThinkOrg·
Why doesn't anyone trust policy research anymore? Because most of it is funded by people who've already chosen what the answer should be. Maybe it's time to try something different.
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