Jeremy Clark

In black and white: the NSA/CSS makes crypto modifications to commercial security devices. m.spiegel.de/media/media-35…

We looked at the average bettor in Iran-related prediction markets. In one of the most popular markets, ~90% of wallets bet $1,000 or less. The 10 accounts that traded $1M+? They only started betting after the initial news broke. W/@justinaknope @rachaeldottle

Cool breakdown of who’s winning (and losing) in prediction markets Since early 2025: • 100K+ Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000, nearly 2x the number that made that much • Profits are heavily concentrated among a small group • Everyone else, in aggregate, is down $131 M

Path B: Like many cryptographers, Satoshi read a quite popular encyclopedia and copied a citation from it to the part that he used. Occam's razor would suggest B.

Now that you know, you can choose the road you want to go down: Path A: Satoshi had a paper copy of a hard-to-find conference proceedings and happened to make the same typo as the encyclopedia.

The @findingsatoshi_ documentary has reinvigorated the question of Satoshi's citation to a paper in a local Benelux symposium. There is a simple explanation for this. x.com/coinjoined/sta…

Short summary of the new Coinbase-sponsored movie "Finding Satoshi":

@joeykrug I’ve spent a lot of time with that dataset but no luck with any top candidate being a close match. Can you say at a high level what stylemetric you focused on? Also how do you handle post-Bitcoin text since it may use Satoshi's terminology or even quote him.

Without spoiling it, I tend to believe at least half of the conclusion. I had Claude Code run some analysis of this repo, and one of the candidates mentioned in the film is an extremely close match for Satoshi. github.com/basvandorst/wh…

The new Finding Satoshi documentary is extremely good and worth watching. It's the only approach I've seen that took it seriously, interviewed a wide range of people, used actual investigators, and also looked into evidence that contradicted their hypotheses. 1/2

Watch the documentary. I'll never get that time back. Apprecite the attempt at kindness towards Fran and Meredith but the methodology and investigative prowess being shown is as bad at @JohnCarreyrou at the NYT, Frankly with the upcoming Calvin Ayre funded movie, Killing Satoshi starring Casey Affleck (and the unproven lies about Gary Oldman playing @adam3us circulating) the whole thing is ridiculous. A much better documentary is Kung Fu Elliot (mirrors Faketoshi and Calvin's delusions)/. It also has more clues about Satoshi subjects then anyone cares to investigate. Casey Affleck should be ashamed being associated with the Faketoshi lies.

In my five-minute, unscripted talk at the Network State conference, I disclosed a private conversation between Hal Finney and me shortly before he died: youtube.com/live/j22fmkUFJ…

I assume it is live streaming and you can't fast forward and the film hasn't ended yet because Polymarket is going through a real journey. The other category has dried up now (the filmmakers did promise to name one name IIRC) and Hal/Len are about 50-50 now.

x.com/brian_armstron… Great, paying twice as much and waiting an extra day because I am Canadian. Someone want to leak the film's thesis? Polymarket is a bit all over the place and I assume some traders have seen it by now. Still split between Len, Hal, and other. Team?

The @TradeOnsight monitors just found another potential insider on Polymarket. Brand new wallet put $3,700 on the new Finding Satoshi documentary to NOT identify Hal Finley as Satoshi. Documentary releases tomorrow and the market is pretty low activity (less than $100k). Seems sus to me 🧐

Or a team? If multiple individuals are presented as equally likely in the conclusion of the documentary, the market will resolve to "Other".

That said, Hal Finney is tanking on Polymarket in the last hour (and no one is rising) so maybe they are on TV saying something else, implying an outside candidate?

x.com/findingsatoshi… Based on the trailer, clips, and tweets, they are telegraphing Hal Finney and Len Sassaman as the top two candidates. Both have direct connections to Phil Zimmerman who the film positions as central to uncovering Satoshi. Which they go with? 🤷🏻