Jeremy Clark

In black and white: the NSA/CSS makes crypto modifications to commercial security devices. m.spiegel.de/media/media-35…

SoK: Market Microstructure for Decentralized Prediction Markets Presented by: @PulpSpy Prediction-market prices depend on the full workflow: market creation, trading, resolution, settlement, and archiving. The process shapes what the price actually means

D² brings together research on DeFi protocol design, incentives, and market behavior Across two days, the program spans: → DeFi Microstructure → Perpetual Futures & Derivatives → Mechanism Design → Prediction Markets → AMMs Learn more: designingdefi.xyz

We looked at the average bettor in Iran-related prediction markets. In one of the most popular markets, ~90% of wallets bet $1,000 or less. The 10 accounts that traded $1M+? They only started betting after the initial news broke. W/@justinaknope @rachaeldottle

Cool breakdown of who’s winning (and losing) in prediction markets Since early 2025: • 100K+ Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000, nearly 2x the number that made that much • Profits are heavily concentrated among a small group • Everyone else, in aggregate, is down $131 M

Path B: Like many cryptographers, Satoshi read a quite popular encyclopedia and copied a citation from it to the part that he used. Occam's razor would suggest B.

Now that you know, you can choose the road you want to go down: Path A: Satoshi had a paper copy of a hard-to-find conference proceedings and happened to make the same typo as the encyclopedia.

The @findingsatoshi_ documentary has reinvigorated the question of Satoshi's citation to a paper in a local Benelux symposium. There is a simple explanation for this. x.com/coinjoined/sta…

Short summary of the new Coinbase-sponsored movie "Finding Satoshi":

@joeykrug I’ve spent a lot of time with that dataset but no luck with any top candidate being a close match. Can you say at a high level what stylemetric you focused on? Also how do you handle post-Bitcoin text since it may use Satoshi's terminology or even quote him.

Without spoiling it, I tend to believe at least half of the conclusion. I had Claude Code run some analysis of this repo, and one of the candidates mentioned in the film is an extremely close match for Satoshi. github.com/basvandorst/wh…

The new Finding Satoshi documentary is extremely good and worth watching. It's the only approach I've seen that took it seriously, interviewed a wide range of people, used actual investigators, and also looked into evidence that contradicted their hypotheses. 1/2

Watch the documentary. I'll never get that time back. Apprecite the attempt at kindness towards Fran and Meredith but the methodology and investigative prowess being shown is as bad at @JohnCarreyrou at the NYT, Frankly with the upcoming Calvin Ayre funded movie, Killing Satoshi starring Casey Affleck (and the unproven lies about Gary Oldman playing @adam3us circulating) the whole thing is ridiculous. A much better documentary is Kung Fu Elliot (mirrors Faketoshi and Calvin's delusions)/. It also has more clues about Satoshi subjects then anyone cares to investigate. Casey Affleck should be ashamed being associated with the Faketoshi lies.

In my five-minute, unscripted talk at the Network State conference, I disclosed a private conversation between Hal Finney and me shortly before he died: youtube.com/live/j22fmkUFJ…

I assume it is live streaming and you can't fast forward and the film hasn't ended yet because Polymarket is going through a real journey. The other category has dried up now (the filmmakers did promise to name one name IIRC) and Hal/Len are about 50-50 now.

x.com/brian_armstron… Great, paying twice as much and waiting an extra day because I am Canadian. Someone want to leak the film's thesis? Polymarket is a bit all over the place and I assume some traders have seen it by now. Still split between Len, Hal, and other. Team?