Pumplings

@trevor_flipper The worst time to start pair trades is after significant downturns. Garbage coins usually outperform in the first leg up due to being down 90-99%. They can easily go x4 and still be down 80%.

"HYPE will go up" Most traders on CT have the same conviction structure: "I think A outperforms B." But almost nobody actually trades it that way. They take the naked long on A, eat 104% annualized vol, get stopped out on a wick that had nothing to do with their thesis, and blame timing or excess leverage (the leverage part might be true). The structure of their bet was their problem. The value add from pair trading has become increasingly obvious to me over the last few months as crypto has traded lower. For fun, I've spent the last few days building out the case for pair trading in crypto, using HYPE/SOL as the case study because it's a trade half of CT has had on in some form over the past year. The results honestly surprised me. Same thesis, same conviction, just adding a short leg on SOL against the HYPE long, and the Sharpe goes from 0.35 to 1.45, and your trade is ATH right now while $HYPE is down ~40% off its ATH. The pair is sitting at its all-time high today. Neither HYPE nor SOL are. If you were right about @HyperliquidX being a fundamentally better bet than Solana, the pair captured that and only that. It didn't care whether BTC was at 60k or 120k. I have changed my view on portfolio positioning over the last few months given the bear market and the inability to "hide" from drawdowns in naked single asset positions. I was frustrated that I could be right on my thesis but get absolutely worked over by the market. And this is largely why I have been pair trading more. A pair trader can profit even during severe drawdown because the relative thesis (HYPE outperforms SOL) holds regardless of market direction. Over the course of almost a year, the HYPE/ SOL pair delivered a Sharpe ratio of 1.45, institutional quality, while cutting max drawdown from -64% to -45% and volatility by 21%. The directional trader with the correct fundamental view earned a Sharpe of 0.35. The pair trader earned 4x better risk-adjusted returns by adding a single short leg. For those with this position, the thesis never changed and you were right and mitigated vol. Pair trading isolates the alpha you actually have (or the alpha you think you have) and discards the market noise you don't want. As crypto matures, garbage assets go to zero and high-quality operators build trillion-dollar businesses. In that world, pair trading becomes even more obvious and advantageous. You can place these trades on your preferred perp dex or use an onchain OEMS. However, with basket trading, an OEMS helps out a lot. In a forthcoming companion piece, we extend this framework to multi-asset baskets, demonstrating that the same variance cancellation principles can compound with additional legs, reducing volatility from 104% (naked) to 82% (pair) to 57% (basket), with a Sharpe of 1.80.

@matthughes13 You missed two instances sir

Here's an observation that welcomes all the bears and haters to criticize: This is the 2-week chart. Every time the price has gone below the lower Bollinger Band since 2014, it has marked the bottom (or very near the bottom) before a strong recovery. We are below it now $BTC

@felixprehn ANALYSIS

Just created a complete analysis on how Trump's $4.7T will flood the market over the next 9 months—and the 6 sectors that benefit the most from this. I shared this with my 18K+ Whop members. For 24 hours, it's yours for FREE. Like + comment "ANALYSIS" and I'll DM it to you.

@amitisinvesting @ChartDavidson I enjoy driving myself instead of just sitting there still

@ChartDavidson You might not have tried FSD then

$TSLA So, my dad had the FSD trial for a month. He loved it. Could not stop talking about it. Trial ended 2 weeks ago and I asked him if I should upgrade his account for the $100/month. My dad…being my dad…said no because $100 is not worth it. Now, I pay the $100 on my Tesla because I know it’s worth it. My dad drives 10x more than me so I knew he knew it was worth it, but I gave him a week to go back to driving normal. Few nights ago he called me and told me to upgrade the software because he can’t go back to driving 😂 FSD is the future. Best real world use case of AI. Just needs to penetrate more markets but man if they can get my dad to pay $100/month, they can get anyone to pay it.

$GEOD has shown stellar revenue growth again last month - growing 22% MoM. The burn-rate reached 66%, meaning 66% worth of emissions were burned back again. Fundamentals keep going up.

Took a while but $LIT sub $2 finally arrived. Start buying.

@saylordocs crazy almost no one knows the abundant 10% interest rate possibilities these days.

If you’ve got $2.8 million sitting around, a 9.25% savings rate pays you ~$259k a year. No stress. No risk. Just passive income. Why aren’t more people doing this?

@0xAvseenko Very original content @0xAvseenko. Fyi @Cryptophileee x.com/cryptophileee/…

$HYPE vs $LIT - Reality After TGE After $LIT airdrop, volume on Lighter dropped from $70B → $20B After $HYPE airdrop, volume on Hyperliquid grew from $20B → $50B Same market. Results - drastically different

@Scorpio_Alejand ???

@Pumplings Enjoy the CAGR of Nikkei 1989-2016

@Scorpio_Alejand Sorry, see this reply just now. 26% CAGR is obviously great in the best outcome, but nowhere near 100% as stated. And my reply was mainly targeted to the 5.5% yield till maturity. On a CAGR basis, it comes out at around 1%. So less than inflation.

@Pumplings @patientinvestor Venture Capital Funds have Target Returns shown in “Money on Money Net Return” units FYI. Anyway (301/30)^(365/3650) is a 26% CAGR, with hope you feel better now.

@Cryptophileee Very different market conditions. Even Hyperliquid’s volume halved recently. PMF is still clocking in 75% of Hyperliquid’s volume post TGE. 0% fees will attract retail. ZK-proofs, ETH’s security and paid latency privilege will attract institutional traders.

$HYPE vs $LIT - Post-TGE Reality Check • Lighter perp volume dropped from $70B → $20B after $LIT airdrop • Hyperliquid perp volume grew from $20B → $50B after $HYPE airdrop Same market. Same moment. Very different outcomes. Think about what that says about incentives, users, and PMF

Thanks for the $LIT airdrop. Expect a temporary volume drop and .hl bears celebrating Lighter’s demise. I hope airdrop farmers will be yeeting their allocation and price to drop lower. Then we load up the bag. $LIT under $2 is literally free money. Two digits is the only destination for 2026.

@Scorpio_Alejand @patientinvestor Might want to learn how to calculate CAGR though. Your expected yearly returns are highly inflated.

@patientinvestor Few, almost no one, are investing with an horizon till 2035.... People prefer daygambling. I prefer investing. x.com/i/status/19719…

- In the 4th Clip Ribbit Capital asks: "How do these companies all connect?" - Then this clip shows up at the end 👇 Companies are connected with the rails and THE FROG IS BRINGING THE POWER - AS A GRID - Did you recognize this exact frog ? Let's check the Ribbit Capital Token Letter. EXACTLY 🎯🐸 That was the Infrastructure Layer. I believe more videos about to come. Intent and Execution layers... Then $TIBBIR - RIBBIT = POWER

Leaving stealth? 573 Today $tibbir

This is $LIT

If you still haven't dug deep down the rabbit hole, start digging. This is the calculated convergence of AI Agents, Finance and Identity. Alpha is moving in silence. $tibbir.

The @extendedapp's Vault just leveled up. Introducing XVS (Extended Vault Shares): Your trading collateral is now a yield-bearing asset, letting you earn ∼10-15% APR while you trade. Maximize capital efficiency.

@GEODNET Yup, supply shock is coming:

$630k → $2M → $7.2M ARR In less than a year. In a market not even ideal. With real paying enterprise customers. What if we can just extending the same 3× pattern already happening

@JungianInvestor @crescendoweb3 @GEODNET Revenue is growing +10% MoM on average over the last few months. Miners are growing 2% MoM in the same timeframe. Do the math. Coverage is sufficient in key areas.

Good breakdown, can you explain how you get to the 40-60m number? Assuming $40m revenue and projecting 40,000 miners by 2027 that's $83 per month per miner. My DePin assumption is that miner rewards have diminishing returns due to increased competition. This is coming from the Helium example. I know Robotics are the primary speculative use case but I am struggling to see how we scale miner revenue from $29 per miner in 2025 to $80+ in future years. Can someone enlighten me, is it simply that usage will far outstrip miner growth?

Most people probably underestimate how fast @GEODNET has scaled in less than a year, despite launching in a bear market. The line chart below shows the trajectory clearly: $630k → $2M → $7.2M ARR, at a time when a lot of infrastructure projects struggled to find any paying users. GEODNET hit $5.9M ARR at the end of November, then surged to $7.2M entering December, the sharpest jump in its growth curve so far. For a DePIN network at this stage, a revenue arc like this is extremely rare. Our 2026–2027 estimates simply extend the same 3× growth pattern already visible in the data.