Qiah

@patdarshd @NickDrendel What if sp hits new highs Monday and shorts squeeze

@NickDrendel Monday morning gap down should do it

Incredible to see COT data this week where speculators got MORE SHORT the S&P 500, Nasdaq & Russell. This is the MOST SHORT speculators have been of the Nasdaq since August of 2023, while we're one day off the highs. May only need a bit days of chop before the rally continues.

@CFlanders7 Your description of trading on tilt and what a death spiral can look like just gave me PTSD. Scary times

Wanted to expand on what makes poker "easier" than trading. First, neither are easy. What makes poker more "easy" than trading is that it is a relative skill game. If you play weaker players than you, you will win, given enough time. The key difference here is tilt, how it manifests and what happens. Poker is a skill game in the long run, but in the short run crazy stuff can happen. Really bad players can go on heaters and win a lot money. There is a lot of luck involved (in the short run, and even in the long run). I used to go on these long binge sessions of trying to get "un-stuck". I would play 14+ hours in a row trying to dig myself out of a hole. Often I would, but sometimes I wouldn't and would end up completely buried at 4am wondering what went wrong and why I made the life choices that I did. It took me about 7 years playing poker professionally to learn how to quit. Really, to conquer my ego, accept the loss, move on and acknowledge there will be another game and another day. As long as you didn't go up in stakes when tilting, you would be fine. You could grind it out with poker. With trading, because all your money is in the same account and you can change bet size with just a click of the mouse, it is EXTREMELY dangerous. You can put on huge risk so easily when tilted. You can pull stops, you can double your size, etc. There are so many ways to lose a lot of money extremely fast. Also, the nature of trading makes it extremely easy to spiral. What I've noticed with trading, at least the way I do it, is at the end of a rally, you have likely drawn down from peak. Usually at the end you get really explosive moves in very speculative/junk stocks. The FOMO is extremely high. Unless you catch one, you've likely missed them at best and at worse tried a few and gotten stopped out. So you're already at a draw down and then the market gets really choppy. Probably tried a few trades and gotten knocked around in the volatility. Maybe the market stages a rally that fails and you lose a bit more. Now you are down a lot and on tilt. The market has clearly turned negative, everything is rolling over but you want to make the money back. Try a few of the names still holding up, one of them had a move last week. Those fail. Get stubborn, hold, lose more. Now full blown tilt, nothing is set up and the market is going down. Try to short, oops, market was already extended to the downside, snaps back. Buy. That was the peak, stopped out again. Now everything is in no man's land. All your indicators are negative, the rally is clearly over. Time to start day trading to make money in the volatility! That all assumes you haven't sized up to make it back faster. Add in revenge trading with bigger size (martingaling) to make it back and you can blow yourself out in just a few weeks. Extremely easy to spiral and just dig the hole deeper and deeper. That's why I designed my risk management the way I did. I had gone through several cycles of this happening to me (in varying degrees) and realized what I had to do to break it. Took me 5 years to realize what was happening and make a rule around it. Took me another 2 years to actually follow it. The other difference is the math behind drawdowns. With poker, playing with a huge bankroll...say you are playing $5/10 NL live with a $100,000 bankroll. Your hourly win rate is say $75 an hour. Your risk of ruin is zero, even if you lose $5,000 over a few weeks you can recover the money extremely fast. With trading, because the bet sizes are based on a % of your account. if you have a blow up and lose 75% of your account. You now need a 300% gain to get back to even. Lets say you double, then another death spiral occurs and you lose another 50%. You are back where you started. It's extremely demoralizing and frustrating. It's why so many trading veterans emphasize risk management and drawdown control. They have been through the pain many times and know what happens if your discipline lapses. I wouldn't recommend anyone to do either for a living. I absolutely loved poker. Over the years, the love fades, it becomes work. Trading hasn't become that for me, I find it much more intellectually stimulating.

@silverfalcon77 @BigLoaf_Fantasy Why are they more valuable now? Last yea cee dee, Malik, BTJ, Nico and some that I’m probably missing really dissatisfied. The RBs held up though. Go elite wr and you miss out on elite RBs and You just said elite RBs make the most sense. The league is changing. RBs are back

@BigLoaf_Fantasy I agree, just off of projected points/ceiling, RBs should go where they are now. But from a team construction standpoint, it feels like everyone learned the wrong lessons from 2025. Elite WRs are actually more valuable now than prior!

I bet Robust RB doesn’t win it this year. When lobbies are mechanically doing this, the value feels really minimal.

@CPT_Blackwater @kai_xbt Supposedly, be he trades what’s hot on social media. No charts , no fundamentals, no macro, only social media sentiment.

@kai_xbt Can someone give me an example of what a strategy like this looks like? Sounds like gibberish but I’m open to being wrong.

Chris Camillo on how he turned $20,000 into $80,000,000 by ignoring everything Wall Street cares about "I don't give a crap about anything that anybody else is doing in the investing world. I don't care about interest rates, forex, currencies, bond yields. I only trade social narratives. I've had no friends in my world. No one to relate to." "How did I generate 70% returns for 18 years? You don't understand how weak the competition is in equity markets. You don't understand how slow hedge funds are. You really don't understand how much of a herd mentality is in this space. They're smart technically, they have access to tens of billions of dollars and infinite resources, but none of that matters. They don't know what the hell they're doing." "If you're a normal human that doesn't have to report to a conventional office on Wall Street every day with a bunch of suits and protect your job, this market is rigged for you, not against you. And nobody ever believes me when I say that."

@TheH0n3stTrader @SJosephBurns I listen to a lot of her interviews. She’s big on preparing for the trading day the night before and starting her day 2-2 1/2 hrs before ny opening. The more you prepare the less decisions you have to make during your trading hours. Don’t aim for daily profit goals. Pareto 80/20

@SJosephBurns They're technical rules. I would rather want her mental rules. That's what matters most. I already have edge and I'm not looking to tweak it.

@Chase_Senior @DrJackKruse

This is a big development. When Levi's Stadium opened, the electrical substation next to the 49ers practice field and stadium expanded, making it more powerful with a potential 2,000% increase in capability. Many have shut down the 49ers injuries / EMF theory saying "The 49ers have practiced there since the 1980's and there were no injuries then." But the expansion of the substation in 2014 coincides with the start of the Niners injury problems as an organization. Thanks to @bitcoinand_beef for the photo. #49ers

@C__Nedd @WillieKnowsBall There’s always a rookie wr that heats up late on the winning team

@WillieKnowsBall There's like 5 or 6 players that define the regular season and about that same number that defines the playoffs. If you're lucky you have overlap between those groups

My takeaways from Sam’s BBM win 1) It’s an advantage to advance a team with the lowest score possible weeks 1-14 for uniqueness 2) Pod luck is real and stupid but you aren’t allowed to complain about it 3) This game is not beatable

@vwstephe8 @WillieKnowsBall That’s why best ball is a form of gambling. It’s a gamble

@WillieKnowsBall The playoff pod luck is the most frustrating part. Teams made it to the finals scoring 145-150 while many teams in the 180-200 did not qualify. Bum drafters get rewarded for to often.

@PatKerrane @Sherman_FFB Did Sherm use the sidekick or nah?

Huge congrats to @Sherman_FFB and so much respect for streaming a truly stomach churning sweat.

@LeoLongoria11 @UnderdogDrafts Do you know if he uses sims to pick? Like the sidekick?

@QiahKincaid @UnderdogDrafts Everything looks normal except for the late kittle pick. What a bargain.

The team that took down Best Ball Mania VI with a Week 17 score of 187.92 👑 Drafted on June 1st 👀

@LeoLongoria11 @UnderdogDrafts That was normal during that time. He was basically free early on

@UnderdogDrafts Kittle at 5.09

@ShipChasing @Sherman_FFB Did Sam use the sidekick or any other sim?

@Sherman_FFB BBM CHAMP!!! Kerrane, Chased.

@DavisMattek Did Sam use the sidekick? I’m curious

33% of the Best Ball Mania winners have been ship chasing hosts ppl are saying

@KurtAlderman @CNviolations Maybe he should say try to be more objective & less subjective. But also I think he is talking about putting yourself in someone else’s shoes. If you’re making a biz deal/dating someone and want a specific result instead of thinking about what you want think about what they want

@CNviolations I’ve heard him say this a few times now and it doesn’t click with me at all.

"What is the one 'spy trick' you would teach everyone that they can use to use to improve their life instantly?"

@FantasyFonz @WillieKnowsBall No disrespect to any influencers, sponsored guys, former champs on yt… but I don’t know of anyone famous or semi famous or even well known who made it to the finals. The only name I see alive that I know of is @emocowboy

@WillieKnowsBall This is so funny man… does anyone think that UD would sponsor guys that actually know ball? They don’t mind giving them free maxes to every single contest because they get thousands of people who max their contests based on the shiitty opinions of dudes like Davis & Liam.

Life comes at you fast, king

@SurplusOfCash What were some of your mistakes this year that you won’t make next yearV

@ChessLiam London could very well play next week and Pitts will lose his edge

What a crazy week 15 for best ball with lots of big scores. There are going to be quite a lot “bad” week 16 teams that have little depth to them because they had 2-3 guys go crazy. Think of a Trevor Lawrence/Kyle Pitts team with 3 active/bad wide receivers. Makes the

@XhalerOfficial @PoloXBT @JustinHerzig In week 1 of the eliminator… 3 affiliates were in one pod together. I think Liam, pat, and Davis(or combination like that) . In the same pod. The odds of that happening by random is crazy insane

@QiahKincaid @PoloXBT @JustinHerzig Would be a big deal if true but there isn't any evidence of that

lot of football to go but I’ve tentatively been marked safe from Kyle Pitts

@AnthonyChacho @JustinHerzig I think former champs and content creators get hooked up with low performing pods. Liam’s advancing teams look similar

@JustinHerzig Insane pod luck that’s gross

@PoloXBT @XhalerOfficial @JustinHerzig Or conspiracy hat on: UD influencers and affiliates get preferential treatment and purposely given easier pods by UD. I have a team over 103 at 11th place.

@XhalerOfficial @JustinHerzig i have 30 teams over 100 pts and advancing none of them cant believe how skewed pod luck is ffs