RESM Cycles

RESM Internal Tech Iterations and Rotation Roadmap 🗺️ Every 35-year cycle, we get a host of disruptive technologies whose feasible and scalable forms are borne close to the turn of the cycle (i.e. 1904, 1939, 1974, 2009). This means that the idea is not necessarily new, but a novel formalization of the technology that can actually work at scale is demonstrated. Someone came along and put the building blocks together in the right order to unlock the potential of the technology. This is not to poo-poo the work of the people who brought these things forth, because this is what innovation truly is. This is not something new to the 20th century, these technology iterations have been traced as far back as the 1400s. Recent examples include: - 🛜 The Internet (1974): not new in 1974, but this is when the TCP/IP protocols were formalized, which is backbone of the modern internet. - 🪙 Bitcoin/Crypto (2008): not the first electronic money attempted and no part of bitcoin was new in 2008 when the Bitcoin White Paper was published (cryptography, blockchain, proof-of-work, etc). - 🤖 Deep Learning/AI (2010): deep learning architectures had been hypothesized going back to the 1930s, but several new developments enabled large-scale deep learning to be performed during the Deep Learning Revolution. And, within each 35-year cycle, the technologies undergo "internal" iterations and these iterations eventually play out as hype cycles in the market with a delay. The current Dominant Single Year cycle regime is 7-years, and that is what is controlling these internal tech cycles. * This is not an exhaustive list of the technologies and their internal iterative cycles. 1⃣ The Deep Learning/AI iterative cycle has been: 2010: Deep Learning Revolution (CNN Architecture) 2017: Transformer Architecture (LLMs, time series data) 2024: World Models (physics, continuous variables) ... with hype cycles occurring ~7 years later. 2⃣ The Crypto iterative cycle has been: 2008: Bitcoin White Paper --> enabling digital assets 2017: ERC-20 --> enabling DeFi 2023: ERC-3643 --> enabling RWA ... with hype cycles occurring ~3.5 years later. ➡️ If the pattern holds, this means that we should expect an RWA crypto hype cycle starting in the next ~12 months. @GeoMetric_9 @OVcrypto @CryptoCycleGod

@AdithiaKusno @GoodTexture Truth, it's a problem when doing rhythmic forecasting. What do mean by pointers? Arrows/triangles at the time of pivot?

@GoodTexture Price is not scaled to cycle. I personally avoid using cycle as it confuses people. I prefer to use pointers to specify pivot in time. So people understand that it is a pivot in time with undefined scale on price.

TLT in the $70's would be brutal

@thesecondrei1 @dailychartbook @jimwpaulsen I don’t think anyone is

@RESMcycles @dailychartbook @jimwpaulsen Ya, the confluence is amazing. But when it comes all crashing down in the 2030s...well, not really looking forward to what will cause such a crash...

"The risk of a U.S. recession has been declining irregularly since at least 1870" @jimwpaulsen

@trade_centurion ETHBTC strong strong from a cyclical perspective as well.

Update: $ETH / $BTC, 1W $ETH showed strength against $BTC during the recent move up, which is also visible on the chart below. The index held the weekly mitigation block and, after bouncing from the lower boundary of the long-term descending channel along with 360D rVWAP, is now testing an important level from below – the Yearly PP 0.032. If this area can be flipped into support on HTF, it could open the path toward the upper boundary of the channel, with a potential MT target 0.055–0.060. In case of rejection and loss of the 1W MB, support in the area of the monthly OB below remains relevant.

@simplspark 2015? 2022? 2029? Can it really be this easy?

LOL 2001? 2008?

Recessions become less frequent and less impactful as we progress through the 105-Year (and 140-Year) cycle. This is why we got no recession last year when it was due to occur.

There are only two "fundamentals" that you need to know to understand where you are in the market: 1. The Money Supply: This give you the "trend". Trend in quotes because that typically implies linearity, today it is parabolic. This is why the S&P 500 is a line up and to the right on the macro when viewed on log scale. 2. The Macro Cycles: This gives you where you are in the oscillations around the trend. Are you at a high point or a low point? This also give you what technologies you should be investing in and when.

@rottieluvr1 @BraVoCycles The 7-year cycle is definitely a thing.

@BraVoCycles Interesting that you say “around 2030”. I found a 7 year cycle of weakness starting in the 401K era. 87, 94, 01, 08, 15, 22, were all weaker than avg or red. 2029 is next in the cycle. Damn close to your “around 2030” call. Kinda backs up my pattern. 👍🏻

Solar Cycles vs. Financial Markets Solar activity is strongly correlated with financial markets. Sunspot peaks often coincide with peaks in various financial markets, such as stocks, gold, and crypto. Stock market lows typically precede or occur simultaneously with sunspot lows. Based on the projected evolution of the solar cycle, the next major stock market low is expected around 2030. Interestingly, this aligns with my analysis of longer-term stock market cycles.

There was also the ongoing "malaise" people were/are experiencing that is often called "the Silent Depression" on social media. But this matches the type of recession that is seen at this time in the cycle, a relatively sharp, short, and/or relatively tame recession: 1920 - Forgotten Depression 1957/58 recession 199091 recession (into Jobless Recovery) The overall pattern should be (and holds) that as we progress through both the 140-Year Empire Cycle and the 105-Year War and Prosperity Cycle, these recessions get less impactful and milder.

@RESMcycles @MaximTradeBTC Makes perfect sense, that Tariff spillover caused a rough time for the stocks and btc, that could've definitely been a "mini-recession"

RESM curves say there will be no crash.

@thesecondrei1 @jasongoepfert @sentimentrader Thanks 🙏

@RESMcycles @jasongoepfert @sentimentrader Awesome, love your content!

The bond market is getting twitchy. Over the past 20 years, when credit spreads blew out but the S&P 500 wasn't even beyond a pullback yet, it was 3-for-3 in bear markets. h/t @sentimentrader

@CryptoCycleGod Yea, I was looking for that, but didn't find it because I was missing the B. Thanks.

@RESMcycles Take Tradingviews regular Crypto Spot chart (they use the ticker $TAOB). It goes back further. But the token launch was in January 2021.

Perfect explanation to get a first idea of what Bittensor is. Be more bullish on $TAO.

Well, you are on to something there. Cycles are a natural phenomenon and therefore subject to normally-distributed variability. The Theory is actually based on 35 and 36 years as an adjacent pair, but I find the average over history to be closer to 35. And the reason 35/36 is so powerful is because every single digit number, except 8 (but you have 4), is a factor of 35 or 36. So all the smaller single digit year cycles will come together to create this ~35 year frequency due to harmonicity.

@RESMcycles @OVcrypto @GeoMetric_9 @camelfinance 35 years 🤔 make it 36 and it could give 4y cycles, but man I don‘t know how to fit that into perspective.

The $SPX vs the Currency in Circulation is at it's highest point since 1937. This is the resistance level from which we saw the dot com bubble burst. Just thought I'd add some paranoia to the mix just in case there was not enough of it out there already :P

@thesecondrei1 Yes, roughly

@RESMcycles What year would the blowoff top be? 2034?

@thesecondrei1 @jasongoepfert @sentimentrader The average 7-year cycle would point to a late 2028 top. Context on the larger cycles matter, which it looks like you have already seen in the 35-year cycle.

@RESMcycles @jasongoepfert @sentimentrader So peak in 2028?

@GeoMetric_9 Close to daily cycle low on Russell 2000.

Hidden bullish divergences on the U.S indices including the $RTY

@phishark_ @GeoMetric_9 @camelfinance @BobLoukas @GoldnGuitars 🙏

@RESMcycles @GeoMetric_9 cycles? hard data? instafollow! @camelfinance @BobLoukas @GoldnGuitars

@MasterMindFlux @GeoMetric_9 Thanks 🙏. There is far more to the 35-year periodicities than price. But price is one of the best indicators of the aggregate emotional state of the population.

@RESMcycles @GeoMetric_9 YOU ARE A WIZARD ON HISTORICAL CHARTS.👌