Ray Fisman

@policytensor But I think we agree far more than we disagree on all this...there is more to society than GDP per capita...

@policytensor You are right about the regime's brutality, which should have been more directly referenced (though this is true for others also). And the corruption was extreme. But GDP growth was remarkable- comparing it to the EA growth miracle is not the right benchmark.

In their otherwise correct argument, @RFisman and Campante point to Suharto as an instance of “personalistic systems seemed to work for a time” in that they saw “rapid economic growth.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/… I am alarmed at how casually they place Suharto next to Chung-hee, Yew and Deng. This is completely wrong. Surharto should never again be included in a bad-but-good guys list like that again. Here's why. 1. Indonesia’s gdp grew at 6.5% per annum in 1967-1998, while comparable countries (EA & P ex high income) grew at 7.5% per annum. (WB) 2. Suharto’s brutal regime was backed by the US as it carried out a vast genocide in East Timor that killed 170,000 people. (hmh.org/education/east…) 3. Indonesia under Suharto was the motivating case for Winters’ Sultanistic oligarchy archetype. Transparency International ranked Suharto as the most corrupt leader of all time (images.transparencycdn.org/images/2004_GC…). His family and cronies have amassed one of the largest illicit fortunes in the world. (nytimes.com/1998/01/16/bus…) So, Suharto most definitely does not belong in any list of strongmen that one could get behind, no matter how hard one bites the bullet.

REStat will sponsor 5 early-career researchers with the aim of broadening the set of scholars who are able to participate in the applied microeconomics research meetings at the 2025 NBER Summer Inst. Applications due May 1st: nber.org/calls-papers-a… #econtwitter @RFisman

@Prof_Nishith_P @ghosh2397 Nishith - very kind of you to say. I recommend you migrate this discussion to a different site. I'm just here to retrieve some syllabi that were posted on X last here!

@ghosh2397 See papers by @RFisman

#EconTwitter #PaperIntro Looking for suggestions for some well written introductions of applied micro papers. It would be great if someone could suggest some!

“If policy favors those who are in cahoots with the government, as opposed to focusing on the most productive use of resources, the country risks economic stagnation,” write Filipe Campante and @RFisman. Read: nyti.ms/4h0BWIx

@andreamatranga @stevehouf working on it...

@stevehouf @RFisman the floor is yours

TSLA stock which has meaningfully lagged GM YTD until the eve of the US presidential election has since shot up some cumulative 90% from Election Day. What’s the primary factor or reason for the meteoric rise of TSLA other than the perception that Elon bought the federal govt?

.@raffasadun had the genius idea that they should actually hire Larry Culp for making government work better, if they're going to bring in anyone from business: (4/4)

They wouldn't let me quote "some random person" from twitter @sabrinacartan had to have her brilliant tweet tweaked (3/4): x.com/sabrinacartan/… (I've used the house-renovator-taking-down-load-bearing-wall metaphor also...danpink.com/2013/03/are-me… though she put it better...)

My small part in trying to get people to understand why it seems like running government like a business is a good idea, when in fact it's a terrible one (1/4): nytimes.com/2024/12/07/opi…

Come work with us at @NUEconomics! Elisa Jácome and I are hiring a full-time Pre-Doc starting in the summer 2025 to work on projects on labor economics, public economics, economic history and political economy. More info attached! Apply here: forms.gle/y5RQmS8m4RMKNn…. @econ_ra

@florianederer shows that the L premium isn't true for a global sample. Overall, my take is that we can be sure D vs R matters for which firms win and lose, but probably not for the overall market.

@florianederer 1. Blinder & Watson suggest a lot is due to luck (though that's about growth rather than equity); 2. Pastor & Veronesi (2020) suggest that the cause of both D election and high returns is underlying voter preferences, not policy. 3. A nice paper by a PhD student at Columbia...

Paper of the Day: "Who values democracy?" Democratizations had a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk and elevated risk premia. Autocratizations led to negligible asset pricing responses. hbs.edu/ris/Publicatio…

@JasonPetrulis Could be? I guess one could see what happens to trading volume in, say, the 30 minutes before the WaPo calls the election to see if anyone is still figuring it out a bit earlier...

In Going Infinite, Michael Lewis suggests that @JaneStreetGroup was able to call the 2016 election before the networks but aggregating local polling data. Are others now using the same data/methods? And if so, is it the networks or other funds or both?

A reminder that the electoral college drastically raises the chances of knife-edge elections: direct.mit.edu/rest/article/d…

Very happy to announce that the 🚨CBS-Princeton Money in Politics Conference 🚨 will be held June 19-20, 2025 in Copenhagen. If you work on this, no matter the context, send us your papers before January 10, 2025. Link to the call in the next tweet

🚨Job🚨 Interested in working 2 years in beautiful Copenhagen with an excellent group of political economists? @JStuckatz and I are hiring a postdoc for a revolving door project at @CBScph. Start: summer '25. No teaching. Deadline: January 5 '25 Link to job ad in next tweet