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AutoMcNatic
@RJMtweets11
Rugged individualist. I buy Bitcoin and Tesla dips
Houston, TX Katılım Ağustos 2011
6.2K Takip Edilen1.6K Takipçiler
@karim__fawaz Easier explanation. Phys traders have 1/10 the VaR they did 2 months ago. Some have been fired. And CTAs are running the show
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The oil market’s recent complacency is fascinating—and dangerous. It reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of *how* the physical market bought itself breathing room recently. (🧵)
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@Nick_duCat It's not complacency. No one has VaR. It's CTAs fully in control.
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"The oil market’s recent complacency is fascinating—and dangerous."
Although this sums it up perfectly, this is a thread well worth reading.....
Karim Fawaz@karim__fawaz
The oil market’s recent complacency is fascinating—and dangerous. It reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of *how* the physical market bought itself breathing room recently. (🧵)
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@BlacklionCTA @anasalhajji No balance sheet after what happened in march-april
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⭕️I’m genuinely bewildered.
⭕️If every major player\analyst in the oil business & trading sees shortages ahead and higher prices. Yet they keep complaining about the market’s complacency, who is the complacent one here?
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As predicted, Trump rejected the deal yesterday.
But I was wrong about the war resuming shortly after Midnight.
Douglas Macgregor@DougAMacgregor
BREAKING: No deal reached after Trump situation room meeting.
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$ONDS (2W) — We asked for a breakout and damn we got one gents!
Volume, strength and sheer force all in one candle.
This is a powerful breakout and bulls gave bears a clean cut KO in round 7. Now as long as that breakout holds, we aim for $16 and after that $46.
Sounds crazy but come on guys we've seen crazier things — I mean even $DELL does +40% a day now.
Fibby.@Fibonacci_TA
$ONDS (2W) — Watch for that breakout to kick things off. We had this one on watch for the breakout and that didn't happen this week. So this assignment will be the very same for the coming week. Bears are forcing a series of lower highs and they've continued to do so. Now bulls have had an answer around the $8 support level that they've defended very fiercely but the pressure is on them right now. How long can you hold there? Now the way out is the way that $IREN and $NBIS before that showed us. A clear break above the diagonal, followed by a retest and hold. Succeed in that move and $16 is my first target.
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@RapidResponse47 @GROK what does the President do in the Situation Room? Has a peace document ever been signed in the Situation room
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What's the best case for why this is not going to be a disaster in July?
HFI Research@HFI_Research
We are ~9 million bbls away from hitting a storage level that's the equivalent of living paycheck to paycheck for gasoline and distillate. Once we get there, even a minor disruption (any sort of outage) will result in gasoline lines at gas stations. I guess we are really doing this.
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@Ross__Hendricks Yet CTAs have pushed time spreads back to early March levels. Traders are getting the wrong signals
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We're about to make 1970s-style energy shortages great again.
Few understand the history, but it wasn't the OPEC oil embargoes that created the infamous gas lines in the 1970s. The real cause was the price controls implemented by the federal government. The artificially suppressed price led to excess consumption relative to supply, which ultimately gave rise to physical shortages.
Today, we're repeating the same mistakes, albeit with a different mechanism. The coordinated market manipulation of SPR releases + Axios fake "deal" news headlines have artificially surpressed prices below the demand-destroying levels needed to ration supply.
In the absence of this natural market functioning that balances demand with increasingly thin supplies, we'll eventually hit tank bottoms across a whole range of energy products, with the same end result of economy-crippling supply shortages.
Bottom line: the inability of the Trump administration to tolerate higher prices today means supply shortages are all but guaranteed tomorrow.
HFI Research@HFI_Research
We are ~9 million bbls away from hitting a storage level that's the equivalent of living paycheck to paycheck for gasoline and distillate. Once we get there, even a minor disruption (any sort of outage) will result in gasoline lines at gas stations. I guess we are really doing this.
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@HFI_Research Phys traders are hitting VaR limits. CTAs are now neutral.
No one has anything to sell
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Every physical trader I spoke to in the last month said something along the lines of, “Prices will stop us from hitting tank bottom.”
Fast forwarding to today, nope. Market did not price in any demand destruction in the West. Instead, we are just going full on into shortage mode.
“None of this matters,” is what I get from generalists.
Cool, enjoy the shortage.
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$ONDS
I WANT 15!!
LIKE THIS POST IF YOU WANT MORE!! SPREAD THE MESSAGE LIKE YOU SPREAD PEANUT BUTTER ON TOAST
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@cello2econ @Swingtrader Note. CTAs balanced today and we went up . . .
Surprise surprise
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@cello2econ @Swingtrader It's more simple than it sounds. SPR + CTAs in a market where physical guys have little ammo (massive VaR swings) have oversold the market. Liquidity is a huge problem. Look at RBOB OI. Lower than it's been in forever.
If something happens, there's no one available to sell
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WTI at $90. This is seriously the greatest market story, drama, and mystery I have experienced in 25 years of being actively involved with commodities. It has fascinated me, frustrated me, and humbled me. I was definitely one of the oil going to over $200 guys - goes to show how much we don't know!!
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Now everyone will jump on the $ONDS bandwagon…🤣
How far can we go before resistance? 👀🤌🏻
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