Matt Millar

@Rory_Johnston Whoa! I can imagine that would be intense. Peace be with you brother.

It’s been a really weird weekend.

@MattG_PE Agree with your logic - disagree with your conclusion. The market will price oil sufficient to destroy demand. $100 isn't that number. Neither is $200. It's $440. $440 is enough to cause a recession, which is required to destroy more than 2 mbd.

5/ Add in the shale revolution: US domestic crude production exploded from 5.5 mb/d in 2010 to a record 13.6 mb/d in 2025 — nearly 2.5x higher. America transformed from heavy importer to energy powerhouse. Higher prices now support domestic production, jobs, investment, and energy independence Thoughts? Is the market underpricing America’s energy resilience? #Oil #Energy #USEconomy

🧵$100 oil will not cause demand destruction or a US Recession. The numbers prove it. 1/ From June 2011–June 2014, WTI averaged $96.16 per barrel. Global oil demand kept growing steadily: ~87.1 mb/d (2010) → 91.5 mb/d (2014).

@EconstratPB I love James Hamilton. But I don't think we get a -0.06 elasticity inside of 30 days with oil <$200 [I think it is more like -0.025]. Recent JPM research supports so not just me saying it.

Not yet Pappi Chulo. But destiny is coming.

@TheRealDanSaedi unpopular view: oil should be 300+. 180 still barely dents demand - want proof? Look at the demand past 45 days for Singapore Jet Fuel. It's at $225/barrel.

oil should be at 180

@EconstratPB 💯 short term elasticity below $90/barrel is essentially zero. Elasticity from 90-150 is gonna be around -0.02. Each product has a different elasticity and Each elasticity is non-linear. But yeah, -0.1 is easily disproved just by looking at data from the last month.

It comes down this stupid little number: the elasticity coefficient. Get that and you get the oil trade. Link in bio.

@TradingThomas3 Lol. I think you need to put [sarcasm] for the ones who dont get it

Mines will be cleared by futures open

@Mayhem4Markets Lol

Powell after realizing he gets to step down from leading the Fed before shit really hits the fan 💀

Does Hormuz really matter for domestic natty? Meaning if the TTF differential is 400% instead of 750%, dont we export the same? (Just limited to capacity). And...this is a little more nuanced but aren't we to the point in the shoulder season where TDDs are essentially irrelevant? Seems likely the market is over its skis WRT trading bearish April weather. This second point is more of a flows comment - weather can't get more bearish...ergo it can only get more bullish (just by becoming more neutral). Positioning reflects that bearish weather, so likewise there can only be 'buyers' in the market (e.g. mainly folks who will cover their shorts).

This week’s injection forecast above +50 Bcf is less bearish than last week’s. The EIA recalibration of the April 16 norm (+33.4 Bcf) means a +50 Bcf print is only +17 above norm, requiring +60 Bcf+ to add meaningful points. #natgas

@WinnerInvestor @TankerTrackers I think you have the answer hidden within your question🤣🤣🤣

@TankerTrackers why aren't they selling this out already? at peak oil prices?

This month, Iran has chosen to keep 23 million barrels of crude oil afloat at all times in the Gulf of Oman, even as their tankers rotate in and out of the country. They are doing so while also maintaining fairly strong exports. #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers

@zerohedge x.com/i/status/20433…

Well, there you go

@mercoglianos x.com/i/status/20433…

An uptick in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with the ships avoiding the international channel and utilizing the Iranian designated lanes. The inbound tankers included two Pakistani ships and one for China and India. Also, are a batch of Iranian containerships & bulkers.

@Rory_Johnston x.com/i/status/20433…

Current Middle East Gulf production shut-ins stand at ~13 MMbpd (out of a ~105 MMbpd market) If Trump blockades the Strait and forces Iran to shut in production that total rises to ~15 MMbpd. It’s been strange to see Iran continue to export through the war so this isn’t a shocking move, per se, but it, too, will come at an additional cost to the global economy starved by the Hormuz stoppage. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 6 weeks, more than 400 million barrels of oil that should have been produced this year have been lost to the market.

@chrismartenson @Rory_Johnston

@Rory_Johnston "13 MMbpd (out of a ~105 MMbpd market)" I score it more severely than that because the 105 number is "all liquids" and the 13 is for C+C exclusively. On that basis, the proper number is 13/86 = 15%

2020: COVID lockdown 2021: Stimmies & vaccine 2022: Supply chains 2023: ChatGPT 4.0 2024: AI CAPEX 2025: AI CAPEX & Tariffs 2026: Ballast VLCCs Ras Tanura bound Until empty tankers are inbound to load, everything else is noise. What am I missing? @TankerTrackers @LukeGromen @PeterSchiff