RK Maruvada

@adamscochran You writings seemed roote d in bias than independece or objectivity.

You need to understand, Iran was always going to walk away from these talks a winner. -We sent inexperienced negotiators. -Up against a people with multiple martyrs. -Who wanted to project strength. Either they would come home with a deal, or the story of how they “looked the giant in the eyes, and did not flinch” No matter how they returned home, they were going to be heroes to their people. The Trump admin played right into their hand. It was not just a negotiation blunder, it was a statecraft blunder. Iran does not fear America’s threats. Trumps ego has written a check that is only going to be cashed with the lives of American soldiers.

@investingwithac Awesome. The key though is nailing earnings and assessing performance within sector on absolute and relative terms. Unfortunately, if a stock trades a particular way (e.g reacts in sympathy with sector big boys) it wld be difficult to shake that out over short term.

$OSCR Half of the furus out there don’t even do a true ounce of research. Just for the point of it, look at my open tabs on safari. They look at financials and say “good enough”. You need to look at everything, understand the products/services they offer, political and policy impacts, forecast bear/neutral/bull cases, related datasets, competitor offerings, you need to be the external CEO of the company and understand it ALL. This is how multi-baggers are found and made. I eat, sleep, and breathe my stock research. Over 90 open tabs on a random Saturday for Oscar related items. During earnings? I had almost 200… this doesn’t even include private mode which I keep switching back and forth. Every damn day I try and learn something new about the ACA and Oscar’s operations. I don’t claim to know everything about the ACA and insurance, but there isn’t a day I don’t try to learn more.

@Thetreatment2 @investingwithac With IV of 80% do LEAPS work well for this?

@Thetreatment2 @investingwithac I am new to insurance companies. What are the risks for MLR ratio? 1Q is easily the best quarter to keep on track with guidance, so hopefully it will strong. Options on $oscr have wide spreads and not enough liquidity and i have been ploughing (and losing) way too capital 1/2

$OSCR is… >10% cheaper AI and Tech-driven Expected to grow >60% QoQ revenue Expected to return to profitability Left 2026 OEP with 3.4 million members With “balanced” guidance… Once the profitability story aligns with the growth story… See you at $70+ within a half decade max.

@investingwithac Thank you. Wondering why the market completely ignored $oscr guidance and chooses to track $cnc and molina guidance instead. If CNC disappoints at results, would OScar dump again as they are typically last in the queue to release. We shld ask $Oscr mgmt to bring forward results.

I would say CNC’s guidance isn’t complete apples to apples. They do a lot of Medicaid/medicare as well, and use an HBR… but I will say, Q1 MLR/HBR isn’t the real risk, rather Q3/Q4 is where everyone will be watching… CNC also raised prices considerably from 2025, around 35%, while Oscar was 28%, which hurt their membership considerably in a VERY CRUCIAL open enrollment period. Oscar also was expanding outreach, and Centene wasn’t… Centene is likely pricing in a higher member MLR due to losing healthier members, but also their MLR tends to be higher, with 90+ in 2025, multiple percentages above Oscar’s. They are likely pricing in, increased cost trends and poorer mix. With the expiring ePTC’s everyone was looking for cheaper care, and Centene decided to have their % increase on the high-end and focus on profitability… From a YoY and MLR perspective, Oscar tends to skew healthier, so Oscar pricing in a 20% risk adjustment is crucial for stability purposes, in 2025 it was all over the place… From the chart below, Centene (Ambetter) , rose costs right above Oscar, which is a competitive advantage for Oscar to steal members :)

@mzuhair123 Is this foe real or are you trolling?

Okay, guys, it's finally the time to say. I am Analyst #3. I took a bus from Islamabad to the Makran Coast in Balochistan. Then, through a smuggler network, I managed to reach the Gulf of Oman, where I filmed what was happening at the Strait of Hormuz. I was called out by the IRGC folks as well, but I had some secret codes that let me film the area.

@ImtiazMadmood And in the process markets nuke. Great story line.

Most people have figured out that Iran was very unlikely to just say "The Strait is wide open!! Sorry!! Please don't bomb my power plants!" What always trips people up is that they assume Trump doesn't know that. That he actually believes the IRGC will just bend over backwards. It's a common mistake at lower levels of chess. Assessing your own options, comparatively, is the easy part. But assessing your opponent's options accurately? That's the hard part. Trump is extremely good at that. It's why he's so good in negotiations and foreign policy. (Aka negotiations with guns and bombs) Most analysts aren't very good at that. They aren't looking at the board from Trump's perspective. Let's do that here. You issue that ultimatum. You have to assume that you'll have to make good on your threat. You bomb the power plants using the graphene bombs that will disrupt electricity for the next 24 or so hours. Why the hell do you want the lights shut off for 24 hours? Most people assume it's either neutral or negative to regime change. They assume that because it's the opposite of how we conducted ourselves in instances like the Arab Spring or that Ukraine kerfuffle. But the Arab Spring approach was always off the table. They banned the internet. We have ways around that, but nowhere near enough circumvention to actually coordinate a revolution. So, how the hell were we planning to do it? I'd be using the living hell out of CIA Operations Officers, MOSSAD Officers, and probably even ODA's. (A contingent of highly trained Special Forces.) In order to give those guys operational freedom, I'd have made sure to disassemble the IRGC until they were a scattered mess of loosely organized soldiers that lack the capacity for robust counterintelligence. Oh, right, that's what we've been doing from Day 1 of Epic Fury. These guys would be able to communicate with each other even after the lights go out. At least within their various units and networks. But once the lights go out? The regime loses its technological advantage over the insurgents. The scattered mess of the IRGC will no longer be able to communicate with nearly enough precision to defend themselves from several attacks simultaneously. Can we field several attacks simultaneously? Of course! That's how the CIA largely runs intelligence networks nowadays. We've essentially borrowed the best pieces of how terror cells operate. On-the-ground autonomy. Everyone is structuring and planning a separate attack that no central command will have to green light. They've been given a collective go signal. When the lights go out. You go. They've been given 48 hours to make final preparations for whatever plans they have in store. They'll be given a 24 hour window where the enemy is blind, deaf, and dumb. At that point, the regime will have to defend itself from a thoroughly established ground force made predominantly from the protestors they'd have wished to kill. And then, as they dig in their heels for the fight right in front of their face? Tripoli descends upon their flank and we seize Kharg Island, cutting off the IRGC's ability to fund its own defense. - @SuitablePolitic

The idea of destroying civil infrastrucure will lead to a new playbook in future. If US (and @realDonaldTrump can do it, why not us?). We can forget about the notion of wars limited to only military infra. Power grids, Oil storage wld be first to go along with air defences.

@AnneMattice59 A piece of advice as I have been through this before. Please do not trust people approaching you. Check their location (usually based in Africa). I have been cheated as well (check my historical tweets).

@AnneMattice59 @HUDSON_RECOVERY Most if these people are scamstera. Please be careful. I lost a lot while trying ti help a friend who got scammed. Quick tip -- check locarion. Many based in Nigeria. Their standard trick is to use many accounts to recommemd aswell

@HUDSON_RECOVERY I hired Reclaimedge07. She asked me to pay by a gift card a half hour ago. I sent it to her. It took forever but when she came back she said it was used. I sent her before pictures and I just sent her all the packaging g. She said it was used at 22:54. I was sleeping!

@BojanRadojici10 Thank you. How do you solve for restatements and coat centre changes. That adds to tremoundous amount of complexity

360 years. That is collective Excel experience of my team of 30 people, in one room. I have personally used Excel for 20 years. Since the very beginning. We’ve spent decades "crushing it" when it comes to financial modeling. We knew every shortcut. Every nested formula. We thought we had reached the peak of efficiency. (They are better then me, just to admit) But I have something to tell you. The game just changed. In my opinion, we are witnessing the biggest innovation since Excel was first released. It’s not a new function or a Power BI update. It’s Claude. Specifically, Claude’s ability to build and manipulate Excel models. For 40 years, the "manual labor" was the tax we paid. Hardcoding formulas. Spending hours formatting cells. Manually linking sheets and building tables from scratch. That era is over. Claude can now handle the heavy lifting of building the structure, the logic, and the formatting in minutes. But here is the part that really surprised me: It actually understands accounting. It understands the relationship between a Balance Sheet and a Cash Flow statement. It understands how operating drivers flow into a P&L. We aren't replacing our expertise. We are finally liberating it. Instead of spending 80% of our time building the model, we spend 100% of our time analyzing the results. If you want this Prompt and Excel model, just drop a comment and I’ll send it to you. (Important: follow me so I can DM you!)

@investingwithac Well done mate!

MAJOR LIFE UPDATE I have accepted a new position in regards to my career. I am currently 21 years old, and 22 in July, with roughly 3 years of corporate experience. My current career is in the field of Accounting, with experience in Wholesale Grocer and SaaS companies. This is a move based on two things. First, I am leaving a work environment with high turnover and management problems, so I have been strategically looking for a new position. Second (the main reason), I have made the decision to pursue my CPA certification with an ambitious soft goal of completing while I am 22 years old, but hard goal post at 23. This position allows me to gather manufacturing accounting experience and have a direct report to a CPA, to achieve the 1 year experience requirement in my state. I started my career at 18 manually filing papers in a cabinet, to becoming a staff accountant. This position is an extension of my responsibilities, with a position title of “Staff Accountant II”. One thing I have learned recently within life is to focus more on income, rather than debt and expenses, within reason of course (@DonGreco21 life advice). While properly managing debt and expenses, and worrying less about paying them off quicker. I am able to focus more on increasing my income, which drastically reduces the income to expense ratio. This was not given to me. This was purely through calculated effort, and endless drive. When my parents when on their over a half-decade divorce battle, it has lit a fire in me to never have to struggle in any way shape or form again since 16. Between legal fees and greed, we lost it all. Once I started to grasp how the world worked, I focused on income. Working 30 hour weeks at 16, and 60+ hours at 18 to get me where I am now. Make every year, your own inflection year. Big things ahead.

$cnc ceo provides strategy update Shares down 15%. Now results will be inline with this strategy and gudiance. Stock down another 15%. What the hell is objective of attending conferences. Did she realise reiterating guidance but providing 'extra' color destroyed shareholder value

$CNC it pays for CEO not to attend conferences. It wasnt even earnings or business update. What was she doing that sinks stock again. This has been a regular feature whenever she updates market -- whats the pupoae of these sessions?

@anishmoonka Copilot also doesnt really pick your old emails. The 'intelligence' really neexa to improve.

Microsoft spent $35 billion on infrastructure last quarter. That's roughly $380 million a day. Outlook still can't find an email from last Tuesday. And the thing is, the business model makes this completely rational. Microsoft 365 has 345 million paid subscribers. Outlook alone has over 400 million users. More than 90% of Fortune 500 companies run on Microsoft Cloud. Outlook comes packaged with Teams, Word, Excel, SharePoint, and OneDrive in a single license, so once a company builds its workflows around that stack, leaving it gets harder every year. Your calendar, contacts, email archives, Teams channels, and security policies are all tangled together. Walking away means ripping out the nervous system of how your entire company communicates. Nobody does that because the search is slow. So there's almost zero financial pressure to fix it. Outlook's revenue doesn't come from Outlook being good. It comes from Outlook being bundled. Microsoft's productivity segment alone did $77.8 billion in FY2025. The State of West Virginia once projected it would save $11.5 million by moving 22,000 employees to Google Workspace, but most organizations never pull the trigger because migration costs and retraining eat away at the savings. Here's what gets me, though. Microsoft's actual answer to broken Outlook search is Copilot, an AI add-on at $30 per user per month on top of your existing license. If you're on the E3 plan at $36/user/month, adding Copilot nearly doubles your bill. And as of January 2026, only 15 million users pay for it out of 450 million commercial M365 users. 3.3% conversion. Microsoft is pouring $80 billion a year into AI data centers, then charging you extra to bolt intelligence onto apps whose basic features have frustrated people for years. M365 prices go up across the board in July 2026. Business Basic jumps 16.7%. The search bar stays broken. The invoice goes up anyway.

@BillAckman @Microsoft @satyanadella Absolutely. Just cant find old emails with keywords.

Search on @Microsoft Outlook sucks. @satyanadella please fix it.

@degeninvestor7 As weird as it gets. Volume is also low -- doesnt look like it is on many institutional investors radar. Why arent analysts upgrading? They dont trust the guidance? Cant believe it.

The market clearly doesn’t believe the $OSCR 2026 guidance But I sure do

@AtlasMotor23814 You are giving him too much credit, reading into tea leavra. The alternative, he just doesnt give a xxxx or has zillion other things to do than reviving Vine is more plausible one.

Anybody else think maybe Rus didn’t say anything because we are close? I’m expecting some sort of news this month with the 4.2 release.

$rus $VINE a simple project update is helpful. Not talking in riddles and circles. But simply... when is the planned launch for Vine; what work is completed and what is pending. Atop this Vine is Vine and all those riddles.