mark house

@cjsouthwell1902 A reminder. He's 19.

Oscar Schwartau has turned this game for #NCFC. Injected a real spark.

Be absolutely sh*te at football for 18 months and lose a cup final to Spurs: All good. Slag off the sporting director: Sacked less than 24 hours later. Manchester United football club.

@rohanpaul_ai Yup. Still seeing an overwhelming amount of 'Cop shit' trying to police AI use with detectors and gotcha rules that feel more like fingers in the dyke than a sustainable response.

There’s no reliable method to tell if AI produced a writing. "The idea that we have an innate ability to sense human depth in words is an illusion. " The older approach was to hunt for “tells” in content, then back it up with AI detectors that score how “machine-like” the wording looks. That breaks because human writing ranges from weird to bland, and AI can copy the same bland patterns that fill most everyday text. Detectors mainly judge statistical patterns in word choice and predictability, so small edits, paraphrasers, and “humanisers” can flip a score without changing meaning. The practical check is provenance, like writing history, known style, identity cues, and incentives, because context is harder to fake than sentence texture. --- ft .com/content/b2ebb99a-cfea-465f-93ff-0ea8ed6bfac5

Let's talk about AI Hype and the Theory of Constraints. From a business perspective, the key metric is "lead time." The time it takes to get an idea to the point where it's producing revenue ("in the customer's hands"). That process involves a complex web of processes, dependencies, and communication, though it can be linearized to some extent. Imagine that it is linear for the sake of argument—a chain of activities starting with exploration and market research, going through strategic (and some tactical) planning, architecture, analysis, tech research, and other thinking, coding, testing, feedback and modification, and operations, ending up with sales, distribution, and support. Add politics and bureaucracy, not having required skills on the teams, etc., to the mix as well. That whole tangle is called the "value stream." The lead time is controlled by the slowest element in the value stream—the bottleneck (or "constraint"). You can attempt to clear the constraint, but more often than not, all that does is uncover a formerly hidden constraint. More to the point, putting effort anywhere other than the constraint is a waste of time. All that does is pile up "inventory" (work that's done and paid for but isn't producing revenue—a financial liability) in front of the constraint, or create excess capacity (people with nothing revenue-producing to work on) behind it. Firing people in the "excess capacity" region is extremely risky because, once you break the bottleneck, not having enough people in those areas creates a new bottleneck, and you will have accomplished nothing. Coding speed is rarely, if ever, the bottleneck. Even if the fantasy that AI will speed coding by 100% or more were true, it would not decrease lead time. Firing half of your people because of an immagined 100% improvement in the other half will also not relieve the bottleneck. The only way to decrease lead time is to improve the entire system of work. Knee-jerk firing will not do that.

@danroan @FansEurope FIFA have whale strategy and leverage dynamic pricing by owning both sides (30%) of any re-sale. The US economy can sustain these prices. The UK economy cannot. FIFA has chosen the former unsurprisingly. Literally zero chance of any movement.

“A monumental betrayal” Football Supporters Europe @FansEurope calls for immediate halt to World Cup ticket sales over “extortionate prices imposed by FIFA on the most dedicated supporters” Statement ⬇️

@BenZaranko and there we have it

Here's an extraordinarily cynical take: did the government talk up the likelihood of a manifesto-breaking income tax rise in the knowledge that it would push down gilt yields in the window the OBR will use for its forecasts?

Considerable risks with this approach: 1) revenues more uncertain; 2) greater risk of damaging economic impacts; 3) lots of angry interest groups, makes U-turns more likely; 4) viewed less favourably by bond market investors, many of whom were expecting an income tax rise.

@warwickmansell A 'mission-led' government would reasonably expect something like this to move the needle on the 5 core missions (some or all). Will it?

But its final report needs to do more on considering these system indicators, and asking what is surely one of the most important questions: are young people’s experiences of school in the round as good as they could be, and, if not, what should change?

New: “Will the Francis curriculum and assessment review provide the radical look at the in-the-round impact of England’s school system on young people that is desperately needed?” Viewable (open access) here: educationuncovered.co.uk/analysis/will-… and here: warwickmansell.substack.com/p/will-the-fra…

Research is about hitting wall, after wall, then after a long time pass, hit another wall then maybe succeed after. But success is never a guarantee no matter how badly you want it nor how much time & money you have already spent on an effort. Lot's of walls will be hit.

It's the hope that kills you. First win at Carrow Road for @MillwallFC since 1968. #ncfc

@GEStevens67 @JamesMelville @EdConwaySky Freddo

Finally, someone has shown inflation as it really is, compounding over a longer period. It is so disingenuous to keep referring to inflation being low at 2.3% over a short period, when in reality, it is exactly as Ed has shown, closer to 20%! Great reporting, @EdConwaySky Thank you!

@holland_tom @AveburyCC @AuthorsCC This should be used as a test for AGI.

@AveburyCC @AuthorsCC Ancient power of the standing stones: 1 AI: 0 #SolsticeRules

To Avebury, there to compete in a day of #elite solstice cricket.

@emollick Continuing to work hard on this important (essential) challenge every day. Always happy to share progress.

The lack of benchmarks for writing, telling stories, persuasion, creativity, emotional intelligence, perceived empathy, and doing office work are... (1) holding back AI advances, (2) hiding big differences between models & (3) obscuring how good these models are for real work

@ProjectLincoln Empires tend to come and go (We should know here in the UK!!) Some stick around China (221BC - ) Russia (862AD - ) This one? US (1776AD - )

Trump is a Russian stooge. Putin may as well written this himself. And any Republican in Congress who said they support our allies before, but are silent today over this, are worthless.

Joined by over 100 assessment leaders in London yesterday for our inaugural symposium. Special thanks to @MaryMyatt for joining us for the day and chairing a brilliant panel discussion. You can read more here at compare.rm.com/blog/2024/11/a… @AssessmentRM

@RishiSunak Some priors might be useful here when pointing to 'fastest growing'.....but you know this.

Labour inherited the fastest growing economy in the G7. But the Prime Minister and Chancellor constantly talking the economy down has already had a damaging impact on consumer and business confidence. Time to stop playing politics and put country first, party second.

@MichaelTakeMP "Sing along with the common people, Sing along and it just might get you through"

I fully understand Kemi Badenough. Unfortunately I once wondered into Greggs to innocently order a sausage roll and immediately became working class.😔 Never again!😡

Some students are brilliant at maths but just don’t perform well in standard assessments, says @dmthomas90 of @AxiomMaths, who suggests a comparative judgement approach to marking in the subject tes.com/magazine/teach…

Changing University admissions using new assessment methods such as Adaptive Comparative Judgement @RMmhouse @AssessmentRM rethinkingassessment.com/rethinking-blo…

It's #breakdancing day at the Olympics. How on earth is this judged in a way that is fair and transparent? Turns out it takes a 'comparatively' clever approach. compare.rm.com/blog/breakdanc… @DanceSportTotal @AssessmentRM

@MrMcEnaney Worth a read - canburypress.com/products/missi… @noookophile

Exam results are out in a few days, and the SQA says students who are unhappy with their grades can 'appeal'. But what if the so-called appeals system is a sham? heraldscotland.com/opinion/244922…