RackCity

Where my weirdos and losers at?

@ecom_joseph Has anybody experimented with reverting to old versions of Claude code

Yeah Claude Opus 4.6 is nuked RIP

Vulnerable Oil Pipelines and the UAE’s Existential Delusion If the problem is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a conflict, I would say that these ideas only last until the conflict actually begins. Once it starts, both the terminals and the oil pipelines will be bombed. The Gulf countries have not yet understood that they need to reach some kind of arrangement among themselves. And the United States should encourage this, focusing on regional stability. It has become clear that U.S military control of the region no longer exists. The bases only serve to waste money and expose the Arab countries to confrontation with Iran. The Emirates are living in an existential delusion, believing they can return to previous levels of prosperity while maintaining a confrontational stance toward Iran. The UAE is face-to-face with Iran. After what happened in this war, who will invest in Dubai without the certainty that the country has reached an understanding with Iran? The illusion of American protection no longer exists. The same applies to all Gulf countries. Both the appeasement of Iranian-backed militias and the reduction of the American military presence around Iran are political decisions that need to mature through greater dialogue, something that will not be achieved with the confrontational tone the Emirates have maintained. On the contrary, the Emirates are deluded and will see their economy face serious difficulties if they continue down this path. Carrying out persuasion through military encirclement with bases against a missile power is no longer viable today. Decades ago, those bases might have received the occasional imprecise Scud. Today, they face showers of missiles and drones. These bases are no longer practical in the current era, and the same applies to bases in Asia surrounding China, or NATO bases surrounding Russia. The new reality is simple: only underground bases supported by a vast ecosystem will survive future conflicts. The Cold War strategy of containment has proven to be a failure in modern wars. It merely exposes troops to grave danger without delivering real security. The entire model must be completely rethought. The war with Iran has demonstrated that military bases now require a minimum safe distance from adversary missile and drone threats, and even then, they must be built underground. Surface bases have become liabilities rather than assets.

@TommyCIII @Rory_Johnston It definitely makes it better

@Rory_Johnston Haha Rory that’s awesome man too bad he plagiarized your ass hahaha

Oh... my God. My first tweet to be stolen by the President of the United States 😅

@WarMonitor3 If they killed your father, would you rather A. “Make a deal” or B. Humiliate your fathers killer on a world stage while simultaneously furthering your asymmetric war goals.

What is going on why are the missiles still flying two hours after a ceasefire?

@FaytuksNetwork Well, he’s right, they aren’t the same threat, cause now there’s no threat they will have nukes or control the straight. Now it’s a sure thing.

NEW: A senior White House official calls the ceasefire “a win” for President Trump, saying the U.S. achieved its objectives and that Iran no longer poses the same threat as six weeks ago, per NewsNation. The official adds that “tough negotiations” by POTUS and VPOTUS led to the ceasefire and a roadmap toward a long-term diplomatic solution, and says the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

@satinskydive @WarMonitor3 More likely because a lot of the assets used for whatever comes next had to refit after CSAR

@WarMonitor3 i've had jumps delayed by less than 24 hours due to weather it's a rush to adjust plans guessing iran's response team is feeling similar pressure now

So Trump has extended the deadline for Iran by 24hours…

@BeijingDai The A10 was shot down during an emergency unplanned highly kinetic mission. It 100% was deliberately taking risks that wouldn’t occur normally (extremely admirable on the pilots part!)

I think the news of the A-10 and Black Hawk being shot down is actually more significant than Iran shooting down an F-15 or capturing a few pilots. In the upcoming US ground offensive, American forces will clearly be far outnumbered by the Iranians. To compensate for this numerical disadvantage, the US military will have to rely on overwhelming air power. The A-10 and Black Hawk are precisely the platforms meant to provide that kind of fire support — and Iran has now proven it has the capability to shoot them down. This will only make the US military feel even more despair about the coming ground battle.

@MarioNawfal Just to be clear: nothing about this was straightforward even on paper. Just incredible.

🚨🇺🇸 “WE KNEW WHERE HE WAS, THE PROBLEM WAS GETTING HIM OUT” Former U.S. Navy Intel Officer Malcolm Nance says that even with exact coordinates, rescuing a downed pilot can turn into a high-risk operation, as helicopters and aircraft can get damaged during early attempts. Terrain, enemy presence, and possible injuries can quickly complicate what sounds straightforward on paper. So finding the pilot isn’t the challenge, the extraction is where things fall apart. @MalcolmNance

@WarMonitor3 Silence is a lot better then them being paraded on Iranian state media channels

It has now been over 12 hours since US airforce F-15 was shot down over southern Iran with still no reports on the whereabouts of the missing airmen who reportedly ejected after the aircraft was hit.

@sentdefender May have been helping with CSAR and exposed to extremely abnormal risk

Another combat aircraft with the U.S. Air Force, reported to be an A-10C Thunderbolt II, has crashed on the territory of a friendly country in the Middle East, after sustaining heavy fire over Iran.

@sentdefender Amazing. Hope the bets for the second pilot!

It's not a great sign when you start simply rounding crude timespreads to the nearest full dollar per barrel Brent prompt spread at $10/bbl, WTI at $14, Dubai at $17 (we normally talk about term structure in cents...) Crude oil spot markets have literally never been this tight

@WarMonitor3 So… does that count for poly market or what?

That is the first successful ground operations of sorts into Iran, special forces located and picked up one of the downed pilots in Southern Iran its unclear if they encountered any resistance on the ground.

@saturn42227 @HderWald @sentdefender So how do you see it ending then that’s what I don’t follow.

@RackCityBC @HderWald @sentdefender Right. And there is 0% chance of it occurring.

A U.S. Air Force HC-130J “Combat King II” Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) Aircraft seen flying extremely low over the countryside of Southern Iran, as the search continues for the crew of a downed American F-15E Strike Eagle.

@pati_marins64 Ya thanks for engaging in the discussion

@RackCityBC Probably this is also part of the packet. This is how asymmetrical wars are fought on ground, sea and air levels: luring, luring, luring and ambushing.

What Search and Rescue Operations Over Iran Reveal In the last few hours, at least one A-10, two helicopters, one C-130, and one RQ-9 drone were spotted flying with relative freedom over an Iranian province. These are five much easier targets to shoot down than an F-15. Yet none of them were engaged. And that wasn’t by accident, it was a deliberate choice by Iran, which apparently has no intention of escalating the anti-air war against this type of target in corridors leading into the country’s interior. This reminds me of a famous phrase from the Iran-Iraq War: “Iran lets them in.” Iran truly seems to be inviting a ground operation on its territory, and it appears very confident about it. Another important point is the footage of armed members of Iranian tribes firing rifles at long range toward American helicopters. They posed no real threat, but the scenes clearly show a strong sense of unity and fighting spirit even in the most remote regions. That is an extremely significant factor when assessing the real dangers of a ground invasion.

@pati_marins64 I don’t follow for the current situation, but a very interesting point if the overall Iranian strategy was to lure us into thinking a Fordow raid was a good idea…

@RackCityBC What I wrote minutes ago:

@saturn42227 @HderWald @sentdefender That would be the definition of a unilateral TACO as most people understand it, which is exactly what started this conversation.

…because the entire region has just agreed that they’re all willing to take multi-billion dollar blows to obliterate their attempt? Are you under the impression that all of our boats will just sail away, we say “awe shucks, looks like Iran won” and then America just sits back and watches as Iran begins fresh construction on an entirely brand new nuclear program from scratch overnight?

@pati_marins64 So… why haven’t they shot it down then? You know more about the asymmetric strategy than anybody here, they could just create a massive PR disaster for Trump if they started stacking up downed aircraft. Why would an Iranian general not do that? Cause they can’t, that’s why.

“there’s a 0% chance a U.S. commander would authorize this level of blatant full daylight CSAR unless they knew they had virtually no chance of getting shot down. “ They obviously did. In an area where a jet was shot down within a few hours, it’s clearly a contested zone, and flying over there carries an imminent risk.

Unfortunately it’s not as easy as last time. After Midnight Hammer, we seemed invincible, Iran had a strong deterrent not to make nukes. What the current operation has revealed is that not only are we not invincible - it’s revealed we don’t have the capability to open Hormuz and thus can be held hostage. It’s revealed that we absolutely will kill leadership, so there’s no point in playing nice so you don’t get assassinated. Because of this, if your Iran, why would you not race to nukes if we just pulled out? Literally the worst U.S. response to that is currently happening, and it doesn’t seem that bad.

Yes, we can. The exact same way we “left” when we were simply using air/sea assets when we bombed them back in June. Once the rats begin digging it out of where we know it’s at, bomb the shit out of it again. When we get it to the point that the guys that know 1000x more than you know tell the hardass special ops guys “go”, they go, we take stuff and it’s over, TACO. So weak. He annihilated their entire military industry and decimated their hierarchical leadership. Much of their research and technology infrastructure is in ruins. …but he chickened out.

The U.S. definitely doesn’t have countrywide supremacy , as you say definitionally this situation couldn’t have occurred if it did. We clearly have the high side of countrywide air superiority however, able to create an extended window of total supremacy at a place of our choosing. Again, there’s a 0% chance a U.S. commander would authorize this level of blatant full daylight CSAR unless they knew they had virtually no chance of getting shot down. Your suggesting that somebody would roll the dice at being remembered as the “guy that hoped Iran would play nice and authorized Blackhawk down 2”. Tells you A. The radar that took out the f15 almost certainly got hit (likely via data sent back immedietly prior to the hit). B. Complete saturation of ISR in front of planes that could detect MANPADS.

If a jet was shot down over that area, it’s obvious they don’t have air supremacy there. They may have air superiority and be able to conduct missions without being detected, but that doesn’t mean they can safely use slow, vulnerable targets. If the locals are making videos, it’s clear the Iranian army is watching, and deliberately choosing not to engage, even with MANPADS available.