Raleigh Partners

@RenoHemonc @TKopelman Maybe. But worth keeping in mind there will be massive forced buying from passive vehicles (3%+ weight in the S&P 500, Vanguard will have to buy, etc.).

@TKopelman High risk of it crashing - For estate tax purposes should have transfered to GRAT with substitution power, ride it up post IPO and sell within the GRAT( assuming no long lockup) ,pay cap gains and go with reasonably valued stocks..

This is unreal I have a few clients who range from $10-$100mil coming in this event This ipo is looking like it’ll be different than any other: - higher IPO than ever - might not have a lockup or may be shortened - can’t do anything with stock yet (borrowing, moving to irrevocable, trusts, etc) The planning and prep for this one has been fun All spacex employees should be hiring a great team to now to help evaluate: - what to keep and what to sell - if you should sell or borrow against (Box spread loans, prepaid variable forwards, etc) - long short direct indexing to help offset gains as you go - charitable tools - irrevocable trusts - how to invest after - what your new life can look like

You can slice this any way you want, provided your underlying assumptions remain consistent The unencumbered FCF multiple is just the encumbered multiple adjusted by SBC as a % of FCF These are steady state examples, but you can obviously model this out annually for more granularity

Comments here are overthinking it. The outcome is the same. It does not matter. Option 1: Treat SBC as cash. Subtract it from FCF and apply a standard multiple. This capitalizes future SBC at a fixed percentage of FCF. Option 2: Treat SBC as dilution. Don't subtract it, but bake the future share-count growth into a discounted FCF multiple.

Question for the people who subtract SBC from FCF: are you doing it as a proxy for dilution (ie now your P/FCF kind of includes SBC dilution) or because you actually believe SBC should be treated as a cash expense?

@tylermacro10 @evrgn11112231 who hurt you?

@evrgn11112231 What is your performance ytd?

Sorry to my Canadian friends on here but you've got the worst takes on this Iran conflict and TDS is breaking your brain. Second only to Europeans.

@ArthuronHL @ReneSellmann Market cares about future incremental ROIC not the historical cumulative ROIC

@ReneSellmann if there's no reason given there's nothing to debate though.

ROIC is the "Holy Grail" of investing... until it isn't. Last year, Aswath Damodaran threw cold water on every "Quality" investor's favorite metric: "ROIC is a backward-looking metric designed for mature and declining companies... for young companies, it's meaningless." If you're valuing a growth stock based on historical ROIC, you aren't looking at the future – you're looking at the rearview mirror.

@slapshotcapital Curious myself. RRP understands a lot of very specific nuance that I am skeptical a creative college kid would come up with. But who knows

Lol we never got an update here did we?

I had a similar situation. Dealt with chronic pain for the subsequent 5 years. Tried everything short of surgery (cortisone shots, chiropractors, PT, heat/ice, tens units every day, etc.). Then I tried a few new things at once: keto diet + ice baths + lots of walking. After about 4-8 weeks, 95% of the pain suddenly went away. Maybe it was a coincidence, I don’t know. But before that, I do not think there would be any solutions for the chronic pain.

@TheFatAmerican When I was 19 I tried squatting 450 on this vertical hack squat type of machine and lifted without bracing my core, rode my bike to the ER to find out I herniated a disk between either l3/l4 or l4/l5, can’t remember which. What’s the book say to do for that?

This book initiated a healing in me so profound that it was one of the most real things I have ever experienced

Comments from $ROP last week on the M&A pipeline 1. Private equity sellers have hit the brakes due to public market volatility and are waiting for valuations to settle. They are not distressed but face mounting pressure from LPs to eventually sell. 2. Roper is willing to wait for the right deals, as they buy businesses to hold forever. The company has repurchased 5% of shares over the past five months.

Takes a lot of trial & error and recursive feedback. For example, an agent that specializes in analyzing a company's product value can creep into a separate analyst's work on runway & demand for the product. I trying to see if it helps to keep a running log of which agents are doing what and keeping them in their lane. That way a "lead analyst" who reviews all the work can make their own decision on how to synthesize all the analysis

Currently playing around with this framework to narrow my watchlist for compounders 1. Ingest earnings calls/IR decks 2. extract verbatim quotes into small “context packets” 3. speclized context packets are fed to specialist agents with different focuses (product value, defensibility, reinvestment runway, management, etc.) that can ONLY use those packets 4. lead reviewer/portfolio manager persona goes back & forth with each specialist analyst to critics and suggest improvements 5. Final assessment w/ compounder score & conviction level High compounder score + high conviction = watchlist

@TomSmith839 Yup, glance at this often

@RaleighPartners Pretty insane given EPS linearity

$APO private credit again getting back to pre-covid and 2022 levels

yeah screenshot implies the EV is 100% equity financed. but can juice up deployment rate to like 120%-plus of trailing equity cash flow if you wanna make an assumption about the cap structure adding debt and flowing through to rev/ebitda from acquisitions. You'd also have to bring down FCFA2S to account for higher interest expense. But those are all fair assumptions you can make. tried to keep the model simple & assumptions up to the investor on what they want embedded

@RaleighPartners Maybe I am missing something

Finished dusting off my old $CSU / $TOI / $LMN models. Currently have CSU at 16x FCF, TOI (excl $ASP) at 18x, and LMN at 18x. Full models below, feel free to make your own assumptions

For fun, here’s the original scenario analysis on $ROP I was trying to get the bot to play around with- 1. Structural Advantage: Exploiting the PE Squeeze Roper operates under a different playbook than Private Equity (PE), giving it a distinct edge in the current macroeconomic climate. * The Maturity Wall: High interest rates are suffocating debt-laden, PE-owned software companies. Roper can bypass banks to acquire these assets (spending $3.3 billion in 2025 on targets like CentralReach and Subsplash) and instantly cure their balance sheets. * Permanent Capital: Unlike PE, Roper lacks a ticking clock to repay Limited Partners. It can absorb short-term margin hits to fund essential AI upgrades that PE firms cannot afford. 2. The Nuance: Adverse Selection and Market Reality Recent slowing organic growth (4%–6%) highlights friction in the "forced seller" narrative. * The "Lemons Problem": PE firms will inject equity to save their truly exceptional assets. Heavily discounted companies aggressively shopped to Roper run a high risk of adverse selection—they may just be fundamentally broken mistakes. * "Extend and Pretend": Private Credit lenders hate marking defaults. Instead of forcing fire sales, they are restructuring loans. As a result, the expected wave of cheap acquisitions may just be a slow trickle of mediocre assets. 3. The Existential Threat: AI Eroding Moats AI represents the biggest risk to this thesis and drives Roper's recent multiple compression. * Cheaper Code Destroys Moats: Roper traditionally bought Vertical Market Software with high barriers to entry. Today, AI coding agents have driven the cost of building competing software near zero. * The Innovator's Dilemma: Even after clearing an acquired company's debt, Roper inherits aging legacy code. Nimble, AI-native upstarts can quickly build cheaper, superior alternatives and steal Roper's captive customer base. 4. The Verdict: From "Buy and Hold" to "Turnaround Engine" Roper is no longer a simple arbitrage play on PE debt; it is a bet on operational transformation. The thesis succeeds only if Roper's decentralized management uses its $6 billion in dry powder to acquire and aggressively modernize companies faster than AI upstarts can take market share. Currently, the market is in a "Show Me" phase, heavily pricing in the risk of technological obsolescence.

@LibertyRPF You’re right, that response came out a bit off. Was trying to toy with ROP’s positioning in the event of distressed/motivated sellers (not distressed assets per se)

@CousinGraig @SouthernValue95 How much does Deltek matter for their growth algo to work?

@SouthernValue95 @RaleighPartners Serious ?, why do you think ROP biz is worth 15-20x FCF? Deltek seems like a tough biz right now. Maybe it’s one time tough govt contractor environment but feel like they have some stuff that could continue to pressure topline.

Reminds me of $ROP's Q4 call: "The amount of LP pressure on the GPs and private equity just continues to mount. There's an aging portfolio of very high-quality assets that we have relationship with. We are meeting with management teams and becoming the preferred owner, all that is very, very ripe for opportunity"

$TSM also has a higher P/E than $NVDA for the first time

Mildly interesting that $NVDA with a lower forward P/E than the S&P 500. Only Mag 7 w/ a lower P/E is $META at 21.2x.

@DeItaone @grok did the pentagon consider Grok? Is it a viable alternative?

🇺🇸PENTAGON DEMANDS FULL CONTROL OF AI IN FINAL OFFER TO ANTHROPIC The Pentagon has issued a “best and final” offer to Anthropic, seeking unrestricted military use of its AI ahead of a Friday deadline. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned the company could lose Pentagon contracts—or be labeled a supply chain risk—if it refuses. Officials are also considering invoking the Defense Production Act to compel compliance. Anthropic, which holds a $200 million defense contract, has pushed for limits—such as banning mass surveillance and requiring human oversight in targeting decisions—citing risks with its AI model, Claude.