Ramon Capra

@Indian_Bronson That possible solution is the exact opposite solution that we'd want lmao

Here’s a possible solution to the problem, though I hate to say it: The Chinese put a garrison of troops in Iran to act as inspectors and guarantors of civil nuclear development and forbidding nuclear weapon proliferation, while also escorting ships in both Hormuz and the Red Sea to ensure no one is attacked by either the US or Iranians or Houthis. The conflict is simply ended, as the US cannot escalate against the Chinese even on Israel’s behalf, and Iran cannot suffer eliminating the Chinese as an ally by misbehaving either. China gets a base and a port in Iran and becomes the new holder of the mantle of global shipping lanes, and they act as the adult in the room henceforth in this part of the world.

@Gaurab @grok What are the leading ways Helium is harvested? Are the US and Japan/Taiwan in similar circumstances for needing to recover such a high% of helium on-site, or are their major reasons the US doesn't need to do so like being a major LNG producer?

Japanese and Taiwanese chip fabs recover over 70% of their helium on-site through membrane separation and pressure swing adsorption. American fabs seldom recycle it. They never had to. Until now. The US is building a $25 billion chip fab. Every wafer inside needs helium for cooling and leak detection, purified to 99.9999%. The CHIPS Act has a helium conservation program that covers DOE research labs, but not chip fabs. It has never been funded. In 2024 the US sold its Federal Helium Reserve to a German company for $423 million.

“And if the regime survives, Trump loses any chance to control the Strait of Hormuz” This framing is wrong. The President cannot “lose” control of the strait. He can choose not to exercise it. Those are different things. My naval sources confirm the Navy is stretched thin but has significant assets that could deploy on an emergency basis to reopen the strait. The question is not capability. It is risk. Deploying assets currently in reserve or stationed in other theaters removes them from the board if a second crisis erupts elsewhere. That is one risk. Another: ships like the LCS minesweepers carry far fewer defensive systems than a destroyer. How many American sailors are we willing to put in harm’s way to accelerate the timeline by weeks? There are other operational risks as well, and I am convinced the Navy could reopen the strait in a reasonable timeframe by accepting more of them. But there is a more important point that the current debate is missing entirely. The U.S. does not need to sweep the strait to “control” it. What is undeniable is that the U.S. Navy could far more easily and effectively prevent Iranian ships from leaving. This is not hypothetical. There is direct historical precedent. In World War I, Britain faced exactly this problem. Close blockade of German ports had become suicidal. Mines, submarines, torpedoes, and coastal guns made stationing warships near shore too dangerous. So the Admiralty adopted what historians call a “distant blockade”: rather than hovering off enemy harbors, the Royal Navy sealed the English Channel and the northern approaches to the North Sea, intercepting and inspecting merchant ships far from German shores. Britain was careful never to call it a “blockade” officially, precisely to sidestep the legal requirements of the 1856 Paris Declaration. It worked. By war’s end, Germany’s imports had collapsed and hundreds of thousands of civilians starved. The parallel to Hormuz is direct. The U.S. Navy does not need to push minesweepers through a 21-mile contested strait to deny Iran the benefits of maritime commerce. It can stand off at distance in the Gulf of Oman or the Arabian Sea and interdict Iranian-flagged vessels under the belligerent right of visit and search, which is well established under the San Remo Manual and customary international law. Ships carrying Iranian cargo could be hailed, boarded, and diverted. Those that resist inspection can be captured. Enemy merchant vessels can be seized outright. If they attempt to fight back our submarines could sink them. No serious navalist doubts the ability of nuclear subs to sink supertankers. This does not require a declared blockade with all its legal formalities and the danger of occupying the strait. Iran does not “control” the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is selectively permitting Chinese, Turkish, Indian, and Pakistani ships to pass while threatening Western vessels. That is not control. It is a negotiating posture enforced by mines and bluster. The U.S. Navy could shut down every Iranian-flagged vessel on the open ocean tomorrow. Iran cannot do the same to us. Could the United States also force merchant ships to sail through the strait? Operationally, yes. No merchant captain will refuse transit when a SEAL team boards his ship. But this would be legally problematic: the master has an independent duty to his crew and owners under maritime law, and the flag state’s consent matters. I am not saying we should do this. I am saying we could. The bottom line: in no scenario does the United States “lose control” of the strait. The President can surrender the initiative to Iran for political, diplomatic, or legal reasons. But he cannot lose it. The Navy’s ability to impose a distant interdiction on Iranian commerce is not in question. The only question is whether the Commander in Chief orders it.

Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong. We need to go back to the drawing boards. That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.

@mercoglianos Why do you think we aren’t Cutting off Irans exports and eliminating their foreign exchange? As long as they attack other shipping in the straight we can make it far more harmful for them and our enemies than us and our allies…

We saw a similar pattern with ships sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb, either getting checked by the Houthis or dropping them big bags of money; or both.

@EricJafMN @ryangrim So we are pretending we haven't been dealing with Iran for decades?

@Ramon_Capra @ryangrim Trump gave nine months to negotiations for billionaires to buy TikTok. The negotiations continued until they succeeded. Trump gave one month to negotiations for Iran to completely stop enriching uranium. Then he attacked Iran.

Why is the strait closed? Once we figure that out, should be fairly easy to re-open it

How come we aren't ensuring as long as they are attacking vessels that we don't allow any of their oil exports? Thats the only way we can make it hurt them more than us. Cutting off their foreign exchange to their worthless currency can only speed up the process if it's gunna be closed. Either go all in or get out...

@menotyou1941 That is the problem. We saw that in the execution of Operations Prosperity Guardian, Posiedon Archer and Rough Rider. The military tactically defeated the Houthi but the strategic objective of not opening the Bab el-Mandeb was not achieved.

How does the US not plan on the closing of the Strait of Hormuz when it executes a multi-week bombing campaign against Iran.

Except consider who this truly makes suffer… it isn’t the US as much. And if you cut off Irans money supply through their oil exports, you cut off their foreign exchange apparatus. Their currency is basically worthless then. You can absolutely make it far more painful for them than us to close the straight. What you can’t do is allow them to attack commercial vessels with zero repercussions…

@Ramon_Capra @mercoglianos @TheAngry53586 There was nothing Venezuela could do to mirror our escalation. Meanwhile, trillions of dollars in energy assets can be targeted by Iran. Taking out an Iranian tanker is nothing compared to taking out a refinery.

An important point here is that when you follow big accounts you assume they are reliable. Think critically. The guy disagreeing may only have a hundred followers but if they are an SME you need to listen. In this case those in the know said this wasn’t the case.

@mercoglianos @TheAngry53586 Why do you think we are allowing Iranian Oil Gankers to pass at all? Shouldn’t we be operating ops like we did Venezuela or taking them out in a tit for tat move as they strike commercial vessels.

Okay...I had to go back and find this reply because I rarely ever use ⚡BREAKING (US flag) This post was in response to Defense Intelligence who stated that all other vessels were barred from passage. I am not exactly sure if you are directing the criticism at me or Defense Intelligence? But I do believe that Iran does not have the capability to bar passages for all ships, particularly if the US provides any level of defense.

@BrettKollmann Prob immediately wanted a new contract cause he heard everyone saying what a good deal he had and making less than Phillips

WHAT THE FUCK

NASA does not have a top-line problem. We receive roughly $25 billion in annual appropriations, including more than a $10 billion plus-up from President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill. If that is not enough to run a lunar exploration program and do all the other things across science and discovery, then what is the right number? We don’t need to blame budgets or continuity of decision-making as the common excuse, as if a billion dollars is somehow not a billion dollars and troubled programs should perpetually stay troubled programs. NASA, like the federal government, cannot spend our way out of every problem, nor can we perpetuate bad decisions. That means not getting spread thin across too many imposed endeavors or jumping straight to the “dream state,” which is how everything becomes over budget and behind schedule. Instead, we concentrate on the needle-moving objectives, the reason NASA exists in the first place. We execute with urgency, in an iterative and safe way, and empower the workforce and our partners to get the job done. That is how we changed the world on July 20, 1969, and it is how we will do it again. Expect more from NASA and start believing again.

For the 1-2%? So you think it's fine to build an entire athletic department and fund all other programs off the back of football players and not pay them? The football players deserve to get paid what they are worth. To say they have to fund every other athlete and sport is disgusting.

I’m in complete agreement. Great coaches used to help young adults have a better future. And for 98% - there never was a pro prospect. We broke the whole system out of concern for the 1-2%.

4. Fight fire with fire. Make it hurt Iran more to attack commercial vessels than it hurts the global community which depends on ME exports. This is going to become EVERYONE’S problem very quickly, if you don’t have the balls to show them who’s boss.

@MoveTheSticks Better question is is Miami-Dade county alone better than every other state?

WBC has me wondering--- if you had an NFL all-star team for each state (where you played HS football), who's in final four and who wins whole thing?

So India and China would be happy allowing the strait to be FULLY closed? No. There is a reason China is trying to to be the mediator, it’s because they have a lot to gain by remaining ‘neutral’ here. And ultimately Iran will only be allowed to do what China is willing to accept, otherwise they have no recourse. Once the US can reopen the strait for Oil shipments they are fully “winning” or have accomplished what they wanted. And of course Iran is in a decently strong position - being in a prime location for trade to pass by a choke point and having a lot of weapons does that automatically. That’s not to say they are “winning”. And it’s the exact reason the US acted. Iran was building up its capability and influence, and is effectively a Chinese proxy. Last thing you want is them to be so built up, that they are even larger threats to the Gulf states (and making it so they are unwilling to act) and have their cells in other states fully operational on their behalf meaning they can completely control middle eastern energy flow. Combine that with Russia obviously aligning with China and benefiting from Hormuz closure as there oil is there entire economy… You can either let Iran build up as Chinas partner and effectively cut off US control in the region, or you can or you can act.

Those who follow me closely can get a real sense of how Iran is actually in a favorable position in this conflict. While its enemies are facing immense pressure from the Gulf countries and the global economy, Iran still holds the straight of Hormuz firmly in its hands. It continues to launch heavy missiles, deploy drones, and maintain operational navy and air force capabilities. They know that time will politically and economically erode the American administration, and they have no intention of negotiating. The problem with all of this? There is no longer any reason for Iran to stop its nuclear program, quite the opposite, in fact. What was once a nearly finalized agreement that could have resolved most of the issues has now been turned by the US and Israel into a problem they won't escape anytime soon, one of continuous, long-term erosion.

A) The naval exercise ended 2/25 and it departed India immediately after. It was a full 6+ days later that it was sunk. It was what about a 1.25 day away from Diego Garcia? Warships are by nature legit military targets, and can be attacked anywhere outside neutral territorial waters without warning and without needing to PROVE they are armed or pose an imminent threat. This is all obvious. We were engaged in an active armed conflict with Iran. If it never intended on being active, why didn't it stay in India/SriLankan dock; You know kinda like the IRIS Bushehr just did. It seems likely because Israel severed their command leadership. It was vulnerable and returning home during active conflict where we had literally already destroyed most of their navy already... B) Locked away? How long exactly do you think it takes for these to be Unlocked and be combat ready? We're talking a couple hours max here. And in probably <1hr to being weapons free. Furthermore is there actual direct evidence that it was fully unarmed with all weapons "locked away" at the time it was sunk? This has shifted from they possessed no weapons on board to now they were just locked away. I'm sure in a weak it'll shift further to they were only lightly armed. C) Even though you didn't say it, it is not a warcrime for a Submarine not to try to rescue sailors - triply so after another neutral navy is already responding to the emergency call as Sri Lanka was doing. @ryangrim @johnkonrad any corrections?

@Ramon_Capra @CarlZha They were leaving a multi nation naval exercise. All live ammo is locked away. Shameful cowards.

The story of US subs sinking Iranian frigate IRIS Dena keeps getting worse. Not only was Dena unarmed as per protocal of being invited to India's Naval exercise but US also participated in the same exercise. US and India has intelligence sharing agreement which may allowed US to locate the Iranian ship after it left port.

Let’s set the record straight here, since this OPINION story circulating doesn’t get the facts right. CLAIM: DOGE fired NASA employees and eliminated positions. TRUTH: DOGE didn’t fire a single employee at NASA. A total of 23 positions were RIF’ed following an executive order in February eliminating DEI and other positions. All other departures from the agency last year were voluntary. CLAIM: The Trump Admin is “talking a big game” about beating China to the Moon. TRUTH: The Trump Administration created the Artemis Program. The Artemis Accords that over 60 nations have signed. President Trump created the Space Force. And, President Trump enacted the Space Policy that will finally, after 35 years, return Astronauts to the lunar environment and begin construction of a Moon Base. CLAIM: NASA can’t intelligently work with industry without a chief economist. TRUTH: Pretty much every OIG report at NASA on commercial programs being behind schedule, over budget or outright cancelled was written during a time of a Chief Economist. Industry responds to common sense decisions, just look at the recent Artemis architecture update and the widespread, unanimous support from all the contractors. Not to mention the fact that the one person has funded the majority of commercial spaceflight to orbit is the current @NASAAdmin. There are currently more than 6 commercial companies looking to NASA to build a single space-station-as-a-service. It would appear that NASA is not the entity that requires an economist. CLAIM: DOGE was on a firing spree. TRUTH: Again, DOGE did not fire a SINGLE employee, let alone thousands. CLAIM: NASA’s being run on vibes alone. TRUTH: NASA is making common sense decisions to focus resources on the most pressing objectives in line with President Trump’s National Space Policy. The only thing running on vibes alone is this piece.

@vtchakarova Sounds like the US should try to get India to be the Ceasefire broker, not China.