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Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it.
Matthew 7:13
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Rev. Biggus 'Bird' Tickus
9.7K posts
Rev. Biggus 'Bird' Tickus
@RareVerend
$ES Holy Crow {Gnostic} & Monarchist. Unfollowed by Jim Cramer, twice Futures bird: 24+ years in markets 📈 Secrets of crow operators 🇵🇱|🇺🇸
Katılım Aralık 2016
329 Takip Edilen860 Takipçiler
STRAIT CLOSURE SHOCK LIMITED: GOLDMAN SEES ONLY MODERATE GLOBAL DAMAGE
Goldman Sachs says the 10-week Strait of Hormuz closure has caused only moderate global economic disruption so far.
Chief economist Jan Hatzius cites three key reasons: oil prices didn’t spike as feared due to high inventories and policy expectations; fuel shortages were eased by demand shifts like renewables and reduced travel; and strong fiscal support, the AI boom, and easy financial conditions helped cushion the impact.
Goldman expects oil to stay stable near term, with Brent potentially easing toward $90 by year-end under a gradual reopening scenario.
The bank slightly lowered U.S. recession risk to 25%, but warns risks remain elevated due to weakening consumer support, higher energy costs, slower wage growth, and low savings levels.
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This week's options plays, including $HON $C and $COIN
Unique strikes for the summer as well! Link in bio
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@bdomenech I'm more interested to know how the teenage mom had a kid but ended up with a quarter million to spare
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Jeff Bezos was born in Alberquerque to a 17 year old high school mom who divorced his alcoholic dad before Jeff was 2. He worked at McDonald's before his grades earned his way into Princeton. He started Amazon in a garage with a 245k investment from his parents.
That's reality.
RealClearPolitics@RCPolitics
Tarlov: AOC Made A Salient Political Argument, "The Idea That You've Done It On Your Own Is Just Not Founded In Reality" realclearpolitics.com/video/2026/05/…
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Rev. Biggus 'Bird' Tickus retweetledi
I remember when ‘perception’ was ‘eyeballs’ but ‘fundamental reality’ was hyperbolic growth in fiber and network gear demand where the order book was insatiable for a world-altering technology. There was no catalyst on 24 March 2000. It just stopped getting bigger, for no reason, that day.
This is just a lack of experience talking, but we all get there eventually when we have lived thru a really epic one
Citrini@citrini
People keep confusing a bubble with “stocks go up and get overvalued”. A bubble is when when a prevailing trend and a prevailing misconception about that trend interact reflexively, each reinforcing the other until the gap between perception and reality becomes unsustainable. A bubble is not when everyone realizes that right now every iota of AI demand eventually, at some point upstream, must move through memory OEMs. Nor is it when estimates continue rising because things are better than expected. And it’s not just when stocks trade expensive to historical valuations. The reason behind the moves in the AI infrastructure layer so far have been simply that we don’t have enough. They’ve been driven by the fundamental reality more than the perception of the future. It’s why the bulk of the most bullish parts of this cycle have been lumpy and centered around earnings season when companies uniformly come out and confirm there’s still not enough. In the bubble, the reality is driven by the market - not the other way around. Everyone keeps saying “people are gonna freak out if it’s not a bubble!”. I think that’s silly, we have a transformative new technology that needs crazy capital to fuel it coming to fruition, that has and always will result in a bubble as long as we have financial markets. But if you want to call the top in a bubble, you need a much stronger view on what the misconception is and what negative catalyst forces broad perception to align with realizing it than you do on valuation.
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Rev. Biggus 'Bird' Tickus retweetledi
“They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Kraft Heinz CEO Steve Cahillane said in an interview this week. “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings.”
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Rev. Biggus 'Bird' Tickus retweetledi
Probably the funniest graph ever published by the FT: our 3 possible futures are either 1) infinite wealth and abundance, 2) human extinction or 3) 0.2% faster GDP growth 🤣
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The chart and expected volatility zone for $MSFT
Link below:
open.substack.com/pub/crowstack/…
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Great tickers to focus your plays this week, Crow Mag edition with the playbook $MSFT $NVDA
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@BoscherMTG @DonMiami3 Inflation also means asset price inflation.
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Understanding and developing a pivot as a tool for trading the markets. Link in bio $ES $SPY $SPX
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Rev. Biggus 'Bird' Tickus retweetledi
"A European study found urban birds flew away sooner when approached by women than men. Men got about 1 metre closer on average before the birds scarpered. It held across 37 species and five countries.
Scientists don’t know why. They controlled for height, clothing color, direct gaze, and long hair being visible.."
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@robin_j_brooks @RKelanic What good faith had the United States shown in using negotiations to assassinate the negotiators?
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@RKelanic What's your alternative to a blockade if you want to bring Iran to the negotiating table in good faith?
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With its ill-conceived Iran blockade, the Trump administration has forgotten a major lesson of the Cold War: spontaneous market adjustment beats central planning every time.
There’s something very Soviet in Trump’s assumptions that economic activity is static and manageable.
Trump’s plan:
Blockade ➡️ Iran can’t export ➡️ Iran shuts in oil ➡️ cartoonish “explosion” ➡️Iran gives up.
Every arrow is a place where the market can and will adapt to find creative solutions, albeit helped along by Iran’s policies, which could amplify — or dampen — adjustment depending how competent Iran’s bureaucrats are.
But the number one rule of public policy is that people and markets always strategically adapt — always — to get around policy levers.
In that sense, Trump’s model isn’t strategic in a game-theoretic sense because it doesn’t account for Iran’s likely attempts to compensate.
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@adamtaggart Boats expensive and a liability
Missiles cheap and plentiful.
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The longer Strait of Hormuz traffic remains compromised, the more pressure builds on those countries heavily dependent on Gulf oil (Europe, Japan, S Korea, etc) to do whatever they can to get it opened
IMO, the odds of them creating an international naval flotilla to police the Gulf & secure free passage rises every day the current situation continues
And I think the GCC countries would happily pay for this
And the US would likely welcome the rest of the world stepping in to secure the Gulf
This works against Iran's short & long-term interests. Once in place, such a flotilla would likely be there permanently.
If I'm right about this, it's another mounting time pressure on the Iranian regime
Thoughts?
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Rev. Biggus 'Bird' Tickus retweetledi
Wolfgang Schadner, a Swiss quant, found the closed formula for the direct inversion of Black & Scholes option implied volatility !
Everyone has been using root search for ~50 years and his formula is fast.
More elegant result, as no boundaries or starting value are required. You still need somewhat of a root search in the inverse Gaussian quantile, or use a smart approximation ;)
Then it is down to single digit microseconds.
w-schadner.com
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A potential path for $WMT in the weeks ahead. Free plays in the piece:
open.substack.com/pub/crowstack/…
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Latest options plays, including some potentially juicy swings - link in bio
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Unlike your silly meme stock $GME / $TLRY / $CAR of the week 🤡
This is the chart of the decade 🥳
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