RealHoagyCarmichael🦖

Crank science: "My unfalsifiable speculation beats your testable theories and empirical evidence."

@Akareyon I'm trying to determine what caused the deaths of 2,753 people in Manhattan and initiated a "war on terror" costing $10 trillion and 4.6 million lives around the world. I assume the truth is your primary interest as well.

@RealHoagy Will you go away and never come back if I say I agree?

As was my duty.

@RightAngle1776 I'll bite. What happens after Trump's B-2 bombers bomb Iran a whole bunch for two weeks? Is there a plan, or are we spending another $11 billion to help a swollen demented failing pedophile feel better about himself?

@Melbana222 @micyoung75 This week on "Left, Right, and Center" the "Right" side admitted (unprompted) that if Russia had kompromat on Trump and was serving Putin to protect himself he wouldn't be doing anything differently than what he's been doing for a while.

@micyoung75 Trump’s war with Iran helped Russia 🇷🇺 undermining Ukraine’s defence and Europe’s assistance to Ukraine. Suddenly Europe, with no consultation by the US, is facing fighting two wars; one close to home and the other in the Middle East.

Applebaum's piece is worth reading slowly because the specific details are doing work that the summary can't. Danish military commanders - inside a NATO alliance the United States founded - had to sit in a room and war-game whether their forces would shoot down American planes and kill American soldiers. Some of them still haven't fully recovered from running that exercise. The most popular app in Denmark during Applebaum's visit was one that identifies American products so users know not to buy them. NATO has invoked Article 5 exactly once in its history. On behalf of the United States. After September 11th. Allied troops went to Afghanistan and some of them died there. Trump told reporters those allies "stayed a little back, a little off the front lines." The families of soldiers who didn't come back heard that. Now Trump is in the middle of a war in the Persian Gulf with the Strait of Hormuz locked, oil prices spiking, and he's telling NATO allies - the same ones he insulted and tariffed and threatened - that he's "demanding" they come help solve a problem his own decisions helped create. Applebaum's conclusion is precise: he doesn't connect what he does on one day to what happens weeks later. Allied leaders have drawn their conclusions. The rupture, as Mark Carney called it, isn't coming. It already happened.

@Akareyon I'm asking if you agree. According to your criteria, because the current model pretty much explains everything, and new inquiry isn't turning up much new, we can basically say this is the answer for now. Right?

@RealHoagy If you say so 👍

@Akareyon Oh Akareyon. All of these are explained by the consensus theory. Some have been directly explained to you, by me. x.com/RealHoagy/stat…

@RealHoagy Oh Hoagy

The history of science shows that premature epistemic closure (accepting a plausible narrative as a proven mechanism) is a profound error. It stifles inquiry and leaves foundational questions unanswered. [DeepSeek] #AIfor911truth

@Akareyon Apologies, you said "specific point". The explanation is functionally sufficient. Few anomalous data points. Further inquiry yielding diminishing returns. Progressive collapse theory is more or less at that point, right?

@RealHoagy > at some point

@Akareyon I liked this part. Nothing is ever "closed", but at some point the explanation is functionally sufficient enough that skeptics need to provide a superior model.

@RealHoagy Thanks, glad you like it! 👍

@Akareyon Explain. What observations are inconsistent with progressive collapse?

@RealHoagy yes

@Akareyon @Goatboy__ @jtimsuggs Impact shock delivers 20 seconds of momentum in a fraction of a second, until one or both of the star destroyers fail.

@Goatboy__ @jtimsuggs Star Detroyers are made of Anti-Newtonian Solid which exhibits directional strain-rate softening. Notice how the smaller contact area HH <=> SD resulted in a small dent, but the greater collision contact SD <=> SD area cuts like a well-sharpened knife, with little KE dissipation!

This moment when a Hammerhead Corvette rams into one Star Destroyer, making it crash into another, and destroying the Shield Gate above Scarif at the end of Rogue One. Never even considered that this was a possibility, so it’s safe to say my mind was blown when I first watched this happen on opening night back in 2016.

@Akareyon You explained the Newtonian mechanics yourself. x.com/Akareyon/statu…

Grok has taken a real liking to the Anti-Newtonian Solid :] x.com/i/grok/share/3…

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt Mike Tyson and Harry Styles are equally male, sex, binary. They're not equal men, gender, spectrum. Mike Tyson is more masculine than Harry Styles. Harry can't choose to "be male". Harry could "be more of man" and is choosing not to. Seems different.

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt Let's consider these effects. If your friend is worried about a difficult challenge and you tell him to "be a man" you're not asking him to grow a penis. You're asking him to behave differently. He can't become "more male" but he can act like "more of a man". Seems different.

Being a Christian wasn't the conduct, being hateful repeatedly was. Stop using Christ as your safety blanket for being an asshole

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt But you'd give violent convicted predators access to private spaces with boys, and common spaces where they can victimize boys and girls? Your ideological obsession seems deeply misplaced. x.com/antifaoperativ…

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt Certainly wouldn’t give these men access to women’s private spaces like Fairfax county felt they needed to with Richard Cox

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt I'm attacking violent predatory offenders, including Richard Cox, because they are likely to commit more crimes against vulnerable people. You seem be happy to exercise with violent predators like Robert New as long as they're not confused about their gender.

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt This doesn’t read like attacking Richard Cox

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt I'm attacking Richard Cox, John Porter, and Brian Helfert because they're convicted sex offenders likely to victimize more vulnerable people. You're cherry picking Richard Cox because your ideology is obsessed with gender identity. We are not the same. x.com/antifaoperativ…

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt You were just defending Richard Cox lol

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt My policy prohibits Richard Cox, John Porter, other convicted offenders, and people signalling violence. Your policy lets John Porter exercise next to vulnerable women as long as he only exposes himself to potential male victims. My policy is better. x.com/antifaoperativ…

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt All your signals rely on someone being caught breaking the law. Quite reactive, not a good way to minimize harm

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt "Convicted sex offender" is a much better signal than "wrong sex". My gym excludes convicted sex offenders from gym membership. Your gym lets convicted sex offenders expose themselves to similar "Muellerian pathway" groups. Which policy leads to less sexual assault?

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt Loitering inside the women’s locker room as a male sex offender is predatory. You’re not actually serious about limiting violence, you just want “trans women’s” delusions to be affirmed

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt My policy is to limit predatory violence. Loitering isn't a good signal indicating predatory violence. If it was, you could prohibit loitering and thereby reduce violence from all types of loiterers.

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt Are you seriously arguing that the male sex offender loitering in the women’s locker room isn’t boundary testing? Would Fairfax county, who refused to charge him, not be the “target likely to be compliant”?

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt Boundary testing involves finding a target likely to be compliant or too intimidated to make a scene. Violating buffer zones, "accidentally" bumping, inappropriate eye contact, forcing intimate interaction. Richard Cox loitered by himself, minding his own business.

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt The registered male sex offender loitering in the women’s locker rooms is boundary testing lol

@liliceberg1of1 @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt Not Richard Cox. He sat quietly on a bench without escalation, boundary testing, or narcissistic entitlement. Minding his own business. x.com/RealHoagy/stat…

@RealHoagy @AngelicRawrx @One_Supernova @albrecht_bob @JeriTsaiNets @TizzyEnt You’re just describing “trans women” lol