Privateer

@Tai_Chen_Hsiang @paulxgu Related to #1, is the sensitivity of originations to UMI on a lag? If so, what is the lag? If UMI was up 2% MoM in the latest read, is that saying May originations would have been higher by 2-4 appx absent the UMI change? Or is the 2-4% headwind going to be realized later?

1: UMI affects daily originations, but today’s originations are much higher than Apr–May, 2025 despite similar UMI levels(1.45-1.49). What are the main drivers behind that improvement — model gains, funding capacity, borrower demand, product mix, or something else? 2: At the current UMI level of around 1.49, can Upstart still sustain roughly 35% revenue CAGR over the next 3 years, or would that require UMI to decline meaningfully? 3: Take rate has declined as originations have expanded. When should investors expect take rate to normalize, and is there a target range or timeline for that recovery?

We've made a few changes to the Upstart Macro Index. Watch to learn more. If you've got questions about it, reply here and I'll answer tomorrow (7/9) morning. ir.upstart.com/news-releases/…

@thebankzhar Are you just referring to changes in mods being reported?

If any generalist understood the actual credit card & auto loan data not the new rules on reporting delinquencies the actual numbers, every one of you would be short consumer finance companies in size. Wake up

@ACapitalLP $RAASY MBO with backing from a growth equity firm at $2.96. Already control >50% of the equity. The acquisition price is near the cash on balance sheet. Yes, it's Chinese, but the price compensates for that and third party backing should mean less risk that it's fake.

Also, I have no idea if these businesses are real. My operating assumption is that they are generally fake until proven otherwise.

$raasy $EM $lsbcf $PERF Does anyone traffic in Chinese MBOs? Ticks what should be positives for merger arb (high insider ownership/voting control), substantial premiums). My worry is that these could be fake bids to get liquidity for insiders.

@ACapitalLP What if key investment staff or teams leave? Hiring and retaining the best staff is hard when your reputation is bad and people are worried about AUM declining while peers grow double digits. LPs won't want to invest if investment staff are leaving.

@blondesnmoney This is about cash management not robo. They generate much more revenue from HY savings accounts. There is a narrative that AI agents can automatically sweep cash from your bank for yield instead of having a WLTH account. If rates decline, it's cash sorting in reverse too.

I don't understand the threat AI poses to someone like wealthfront. To an RIA charging 1% maybe, but 9 basis points for direct indexing the S&P. Literally costs the same as $SPY but with tax loss harvesting advantages. As the market hopefully appreciates, $WLTH will be able to show some operating leverage. Bunch of GARP guys got bagged on this name, now I'm interested.

Covered a small short position I had in $WLTH and flipped long. They charge 9 basis points for Direct Indexing the S&P 500 and 12 basis points for the Nasdaq, 0.25% for an ETF portfolio, it's actually very reasonably priced. One of the highest savings yields, free wire transfers, the direct tax loss harvesting program, for a robo-advisor its a pretty comprehensive offering at razor-thin pricing. Stock panicked on the AI fear, but I think the move is massively overdone. The type of clientele who pays for Roboadvisors and automated tax loss harvesting likely isn't the clientele that would prompt Claude to generate a portfolio and blindly follow it. Closed the short and flipped slightly long, not a high conviction trade but the stock is much more attractively valued than it was a few months ago.

Revealed: Pinewood Technologies Group, the software supplier to automotive retailers and OEMs that was spun out of the car dealership owner Pendragon, is the latest London-listed company to attract takeover interest. A deal would be expected to value the company at about £500m.

What's the deal with $BRLT? Half the EV/S vs $SIG, but much higher inventory turns and gross margins, so GP ROA should be much higher (>2x). Could they cut marketing if they terminally grow MSD? Probably. Reddit suggests lot of quality issues. Seems like a long

@InvestSpecial Any idea on the selloff last couple weeks?

Curious setup with $SOL privatization: Its majority shareholder, Shah Capital, is acquiring solar project owner and developer Emeren Group, for $2/share minus the ADS fee of $0.05/share. The current spread is about 5% with less than two months until closing. The merger was supposed to close in Q3’25, but the shareholder meeting was adjourned due to the required extra time to file the definitive proxy, which remains subject to SEC review. There’s a good chance that the delay is related to the U.S. government shutdown, with the SEC either not processing deals or operating at limited capacity. The meeting date has been postponed to December 9. The revised proxy was filed only few days ago, so it clearly hasn’t been reviewed yet. I don’t see any other plausible reason for the delay. The majority shareholder owns nearly 40% of the stock, and the approval threshold is a majority of votes cast at the meeting. There’s also no regulatory risk, as this is a straightforward MBO. Unless I’m missing something, this is a done deal. The 5% spread (net of ADS fees) offers an attractive IRR for less than two months of holding, though the downside is significant (~35%), so understanding the cause of the delay is important here.

$acc.no looks like I was right. 0.141 special liquidation dividend

Anyone know why $ACC.NO continues to run higher in excess of NAV?

$acc.no MGMT reported the txn value was worth NOK3.03, but not sure how they got there. The 2.86 div means the sub was with 0.17. the stub is now trading 0.135. The interim BS showed 2.97 of BVPS, implying 0.11 of value, unless there is something I'm missing

$pine.l guided £58-62M in 2028 without the full benefit of Lithia and the stock is down. Reiterated conservativism in guide, but I will concede that they have limited history. I was clearly wrong on what I thought expectations were given the stock is down.

$pine.l removed the main overhang by buying in the JV and issuing guidance, though only revenue. They should be able to earn >£60M of EBITDA in 2028, which makes the stock quite attractive if it could trade to 15x by then

@justfactstruth @Falconnetti1 Doesn't more capital flowing into and industry mean lower returns on capital? And higher production means lower prices? Both are worse for everyone?

@Falconnetti1 No direct correlation but $100B of cash aggressively buying LNG assets and aiming to increase their LNG production by 5x in 5 years is good for all players and also supports the value of LT gas prices out in 2030

$GLNG - interesting deal at an interesting time... Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC’s) newly funded investment vehicle XRG PJSC Energy together with Abu Dhabi Development Holdings Co. and The Carlysle Group has been on the hunt for gas and chemicals deals. "Adnoc's XRG is paying a premium to enter the global LNG game," said MST Marquee's Kavonic. ADNOC only created XRG in November, giving the $123 billion vehicle an ambitious five-year target: to become a top-five integrated global gas and LNG business with up to 30 million tonnes of capacity per year by 2030. afr.com/chanticleer/sa… 34% premium to the 1-month VWAP of A$6.61 44% premium to the 3-month VWAP of A$6.19 39% premium to the 6-month VWAP of A$6.40

@evfcfaddict @OverlookedAlpha Regent Gas is buying one of their other stock holdings as of 2 days ago $inse.l

@evfcfaddict @OverlookedAlpha That's why they run large net cash now. Trades 5x the new guide, but not fully baking in 15% RIF. Wonder if new CEO/Pres are right sizing due to permanently lower revs or just kitchen sinking. 3 new >6% holders in past 6 months is interesting too

Somero $SOM.L down 17% on US weakness: "Recent developments in international trade relations and US immigration policies have heightened global uncertainty. This has exacerbated an already challenging selling environment in the US"

@DumbInvestorGuy @iBladesi Activist published a letter to pursue a sale and another fund filed 13D this week, so think the idea is a takeout

@SmalllIvy Any thoughts on IVAS potential? Even the prototyping revenue was large in context of the $40M EV

My $VTSI shares are getting killed in afterhours after earnings fell. But bookings and backlog increased, meaning they're making sales and increasing revenues for the future. Just need to fill those orders now. I think people are mispricing this company.