Rencrypta.eth
34.9K posts
Rencrypta.eth
@Rencrypta
Founder of @harecrypta | Researcher with Alpha | Trader @lighter_xyz @variational_io @polymarket | Builder | @zscdao member
Katılım Mart 2021
5.3K Takip Edilen12.9K Takipçiler
@muarmemuar @variational_io @nadoHQ @tread_fi @extendedapp @grvt_io @dango @pacifica_fi @DecibelTrade @hibachi_xyz @StandX_Official @Ostium Hello perp maxi
1100 Variational points and 7000 Nado points
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If you have:
400+ points in @variational_io
or 4k+ in @nadoHQ
or 1.5k+ in @tread_fi
or 2k+ in @extendedapp
or 700+ in @grvt_io
or 1k+ in @dango
or 40k+ in @pacifica_fi
or 900+ in @DecibelTrade
or 200k+ in @hibachi_xyz
or 300k+ in @StandX_Official
or 4k+ in @ostium
or 1.5k+ in @liquidtrading
or 700+ in @ProprXYZ
or voted in @novadotmarkets
or got liquidated on @bulktrade testnet
or an invite to @risextrade
Drop a comment and I'll follow you back
Because you're a real perpmaxxer 🔥
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@Rencrypta @variational_io this is a hugely under-rated positive for Variational.
Getting hunted on HL sucks
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Variational story: Privacy.
A nuance that I missed and didn't think about, and most people didn't either. Many think private perps about Paradex, Hibachi, Aster.
But Variational has a different kind of privacy.
▪️Not ZK-chain privacy.
▪️Not hidden orders.
▪️Not dark pool privacy.
It is privacy by market structure.
There is no public CLOB broadcasting your intent, size, position, entry, liquidation level, or PnL to every watcher on-chain.
▪️RFQ against OLP. You get a quote.
▪️You execute privately. OLP hedges externally.
The market does not see your flow. That matters.
In transparent perp DEX your alpha becomes someone else’s signal.
Whales get copied, faded, hunted, and liquidated. Public orderbooks are great for price discovery, but terrible if you are the signal.
Variational privacy is not full cryptographic invisibility.
The public does not see you, but OLP still sees the flow.
So this is not trustless privacy, it's more like broker-style privacy:
▪️private from the market
▪️visible to the execution layer
What about RWA Privacy?
For crypto majors, transparency helps liquidity.
For RWA long-tail and large trades, transparency can destroy execution.
Variational is betting that for RWA, hiding flow from the public market is more important than showing every position to prove decentralization.
That is a very TradFi answer and probably the right one for the first serious wave of on-chain RWA trading.
Nacho@ElNachoCrypto
10 reasons why i'm giga bullish on @variational_io: 1. top 5 by oi, despite no api/mobile app 2. team respect and study hyperliquid 3. highly focussed on rewarding users 4. all trades are private 5. rfq allows for insane capital efficiency 6. excellent liquidity, low execution costs 7. ability to list virtually any market 8. antithetical to the cex model 9. founders are quants, with proven track record 10. variational pro (details below) hard to list only 10, but you get the idea gvar
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@ElNachoCrypto @variational_io Yes, great feature, I really thought for a while that everyone could see the deals and the account,
but then it only came to the fact that there is also privacy here, but a slightly different kind
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@Rencrypta @variational_io true that many ppl likely overlook this of var, but i think it's a really nice feature
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if you are still not trading on Variational, then let's go
Code = OMNIREN
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMNIREN
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@Rencrypta @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade transition from the risk of the committee to the risk of counting votes is a critical moment
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CLARITY Act cleared Senate Banking 15-9.
This is a much bigger deal than a normal committee vote.
The new risk is vote-count risk.
To pass the full Senate, the bill likely needs 60 votes.
Republicans have 53 seats.
CLARITY full Senate vote-count map:
GOP seats: 53
Votes needed: 60
Democratic votes needed: at least 7
Visible Dem yes votes after Banking:
✅ Ruben Gallego
✅ Angela Alsobrooks
Still needed:
5 more Democrats.
Possible targets:
• Mark Warner - key swing ( legitimacy vote )
• Catherine Cortez Masto - AML ( law-enforcement concerns )
• Raphael Warnock -( illicit-finance concerns )
• Andy Kim - ( possible negotiation target )
• Kirsten Gillibrand - crypto-open Dems outside Banking ( floor-level reserve )
This is why 15–9 in Banking was bullish, but not final.
CLARITY has moved from markup risk to whip-count risk.
The question is no longer: Can it get out of committee?
It is:
Can it scale from 15 committee votes to 60 Senate votes?
68% is Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 on Polymarket
Rencrypta.eth@Rencrypta
My scenarios for Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination and the impact on the Clarity Act It is the market realizing that the April fast-track story just broke. The Clarity Act can still be politically alive, still have White House support, still have crypto industry momentum and still miss 2026 because the Senate calendar eats it alive. That’s the part traders were underpricing. The real enemy of CLARITY right now ▪️is not Elizabeth Warren. ▪️is not the SEC. ▪️is not even the stablecoin-yield fight by itself. The real enemy is time. Senate Banking still has no posted CLARITY markup date. This week the committee is focused on Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination hearing. Tillis still seems to want more time on the stablecoin-yield language. Banks don’t need to kill the bill outright, they just need to delay it long enough. That’s the underrated game theory here: Crypto needs a law. Banks can live with the status quo. So delay is not neutral. Delay is leverage. Warsh’s confirmation does not directly decide CLARITY. He is not the crypto bill’s judge. But his hearing is taking up the same scarce Senate Banking bandwidth that CLARITY needs. 1. If Warsh clears fast, that’s mildly bullish: Banking gets its calendar back. 2. If Warsh turns into a drawn-out political fight, it is bearish: the committee loses time, the ethics/conflict-of-interest narrative gets louder, and CLARITY gets pushed deeper into May. May is dangerous. Because this market is not asking: Will the US eventually pass crypto market structure? It is asking: Will H.R. 3633 pass both chambers and get signed in 2026? That is a much narrower bet. A bill can be close and still fail that exact resolution. So here is my framework: ▪️ Markup notice this week → Polymarket probably rips back toward 60% + ▪️ No notice → 49% is not cheap ▪️ Markup slips past mid-May → 2026 odds should fall hard ▪️ Actual committee passage → Yes becomes real again ▪️ More bank/yield drama → No has asymmetric upside CLARITY is alive. But it is no longer priced like a straight line. The next catalyst is not another optimistic quote. It’s a date on the Senate Banking calendar. Would you buy YES at 49%, or is this finally where NO becomes the cleaner trade?
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Clarity Act signed into law in 2026 on Polymarket?
polymarket.com/event/clarity-…
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@ElNachoCrypto @variational_io Just understood, it’s really private, we can’t see others trades
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10 reasons why i'm giga bullish on @variational_io:
1. top 5 by oi, despite no api/mobile app
2. team respect and study hyperliquid
3. highly focussed on rewarding users
4. all trades are private
5. rfq allows for insane capital efficiency
6. excellent liquidity, low execution costs
7. ability to list virtually any market
8. antithetical to the cex model
9. founders are quants, with proven track record
10. variational pro (details below)
hard to list only 10, but you get the idea
gvar
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The main consensus of the Moscow Trading Forum. 👇
We are waiting for hyperinflation, strengthening of the $RUB to 70-50-30 per USD, all production manufacturers are in a stupor, only Sberbank is in chocolate, has collected liquidity and lives on interest!
Only physicists buy shares on the MOEX, companies sell everything, you need to buy industrial metals, hello $COPPER!
Shares of the US and others are on ATH, and the MOEX is in the range, what will happen to the index when the SP500 collapses?
Rencrypta.eth@Rencrypta
GM X! Flowers can be eaten, snowdrops, mother-and-stepmothers, grow at the right time of the year! Good for health!
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@TinaPalesha oh... It is a great rarity to see a lynx around here.
The lynx itself is afraid of humans, it’s not as if we are afraid of them...
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@Rencrypta wow, aren't you afraid of lynxes if you meet them there?
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GM X!
Flowers can be eaten, snowdrops, mother-and-stepmothers, grow at the right time of the year!
Good for health!
Rencrypta.eth@Rencrypta
Variational will do an airdrop in q3 1 point will be worth $1000 source: just trust us You still have 4 months to farm $VAR In the meantime, the moments of my life today
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@TinaPalesha No.... There are moose and lynx; there are no bears or wolves in my forest.
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@Steveee_stonks @kriptoshum will you buy USD or EUR in this case?
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@Rencrypta @kriptoshum Yes, I would not be surprised if this happens, there is a gradual decline
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@Steveee_stonks @kriptoshum Absolutely right... 50 rub per USD is real in summer
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@kriptoshum @Rencrypta It can be, it`s already dropped from 100 to 70
I also remember how it dropped from 120 to 50 in 2022
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