Jamie McGeever

My job is to analyze policy. I can't even find a complete sentence in this

U.S. non-farm payrolls revised -818k in year to March

Can't say this enough; Elon Musk's menace to democracy is intolerable. He's using the largest & most influential platform in the democratic world to stoke racial conflict and civil breakdown - in his own posts & what X promotes. Democracies can no longer ignore this.

Elon Musk shared a completely fake Daily Telegraph headline posted by Britain First's co-leader about "detainment camps on the Falkland Islands" for UK rioters to his 193 million followers and then deleted it without any explanation.

Just Elon Musk quote tweeting the co-leader of far-right party, Britain First, who is sharing a fake Telegraph headline Seen by almost 1 million people in 15 minutes Utterly dystopian

Japan leads the Asia-wide stock market recovery charge from Monday's selloff Monday - Nikkei 225 index -12.4%, second largest fall on record Early Tuesday - Nikkei 225 index +10 .3%, on track for third largest rise on record. A sign that Monday's volatility was way overdone?

"Up the escalator, down the elevator shaft" - not dollar/yen, but US interest rates. Fed hiking cycles are often gradual - "measured pace", anyone? - but not easing cycles. This time is no different. COLUMN-Gradual Fed rate cut hopes were always misplaced reuters.com/markets/us/hop…

woah, maybe the US economy is not crashing? ISM services employment up 5 points to 51.1. Entire PMI in expansion

VIX volatility index - Wall Street's 'fear index' - surges above 65, its highest ever except for global financial crisis in 2008 and pandemic in 2020. Higher than peaks of Asian crisis, LTCM, dotcom crash, 9/11, taper tantrum, US debt downgrade, Volmaggedon. Panic or justified?

Japan's Nikkei has fallen 20% in three weeks, the Topix has fallen 15% in three days.

Carry trades getting clobbered - Japanese stocks, dollar/yen, Nasdaq futures and crypto all posting heavy losses as Friday's 'risk off' momentum spills into early Asian hours Monday. Topix -7% USD/JPY below 145.00 Nasdaq futures -2.5% Ethereum -15%

Japanese stocks tumbling. The broad Topix index is down 7% and on track for a two-day fall of 13%. That would be the fourth biggest two-day fall in almost 50 years, topped only by: Oct 1987 (Black Monday) Oct 2008 (Great Financial Crisis) March 2011 (Fukishima disaster)

A reminder that Rishi Sunak proudly rolled out the red carpet for this guy just last year.

And what the hell is the owner of this site - who has bigged up Tommy Robinson and Paul Golding - doing tell us that “civil war is inevitable” in Britain? Elon Musk and the role of X should be a major part of any investigation into the violence of the last few days

CFTC data shows that as of Tuesday, asset manager long & hedge fund short US Treasury futures positions rose to new records worth $1.12 trln and $1.08 trln. Yield collapse since Thursday - 45 bps in 2y, 30 bps in 10y - will be hurting some of these highly leveraged funds.

Remember the basis trade? Record asset manager, hedge fund US Treasury futures positions of >$1 trillion not a problem if vol is low, rate changes are gradual. They may be vulnerable... COLUMN-US Treasury futures in unchartered waters as Fed cuts loom reuters.com/markets/us/us-…

Markets now pricing in an 85% probability that the Fed cuts rates by *50 bps* in September

Bad U.S. jobs numbers - affirms economic slowdown, will fuel recession talk and need for bolder rate cuts. Unemployment rate up to 4.3%, higher than expected Payrolls +114k in July, less than expected June payrolls revised down Wage growth slows more than expected

FLASHBACK: Nikki Haley in January: "The first party to retire its 80 year old candidate is going to be the one who wins this election."