Rat Man

@WeaponScientist A bunch of failures and elitists sitting in their echo chamber about how great they are. Defines living in a fantasy world

Really says something about how shallow the Democrat’s bench of foreign policy and national security expertise is. It’s nearly all former Obama or Clinton staffers who have hung around far beyond their expiration date.

@franfran2424 @3_bm15 a wait and see isn't in my opinion contrary. If you were definitively saying there's no impact that might be. I think there's a fair amount of people, me included, who are TBD on this. I'd guess there's a slight dip for the reasons others have said plus some stockpiling

@3_bm15 I exist to take contrarian positions and apologize when I am wrong though .

Not bad at all. I was a sceptic of the idea that "killing the archer" was possible at any scale.

@NotWoofers Avg rate is 10% get through, so not too good of a success rate for ru so far. I expect some burning videos soon

Ukrainian drones continue to fly low over Leningrad oblast as dawn breaks. They appear to be trying to hit Ust-Luga oil terminal. Russians report shooting down 43 drones so far, out of 80 in the region.

@NotWoofers Considering everyone knows Ukraine wants to destroy ru economics, Moscow and military facilities and ru is choosing to/can only protect 1.5 of those 3 it seems safe to say ru AD is in trouble and trending even worse. Excellent news

Ukrainian drones are beginning their final approach towards Ust-Luga, hugging the Estonian border near Narva/Ivangorod. Russian air defenses are trying to repulse the attack.

@Osinttechnical Has anyone checked with Ayden on why ru AD is full of holes like Swiss cheese?

Ukrainian forces are conducting a major attack on Russia’s Baltic Sea oil export terminals this morning. Seen here, a Ukrainian attack drone flies low over Leningrad Oblast towards its target.

@NotWoofers Shocking I tell you! Where would the russians be if it weren't for stealing or killing the smartest people from Germany and Central/Eastern Europe after WWII. My guess is similar to Iran

The failure by the VKS to expand glide bomb capabilities across the fleet and really ratchet up their strikes has perplexed me for a while but this answers my questions. Luckily they have chronic technician shortages. Otherwise, it’s possible we would have seen thousands of additional glide bomb sorties per month. As mentioned, the Russians have the pilots, they have the aircraft. They just don’t have the skills.

Elbridge Colby has done catastrophic damage to US projection, leverage, and reputation. His policy managed the impossible: doing everything to abandon Ukraine while completely failing to actually pivot to Asia. A masterclass in destroying US influence

It's embarrassing that pleasing trumps ego is more important for troop levels than defense spending, buying American or being a real ally. Germany and Poland have caught flak from this admin while being great allies. Hungary appeasing Russia and at 2% spending never caught flak

@cameron19460429 I'll be there, I fucking hate that guy

I'm throwing a party the day Colby Elbridge is fired or resigns. Driscoll has actually done a lot of very positive things but Elbridge has not as far as I'm aware.

@USWPColby @SecWar Much of what he said were lies & we know how you purposely withhold congressionally approved aid b/c you're a POS. If you really believed in a pivot to Asia then helping 🇺🇦 defeat russia would hurt China. Colby is another incompetent elitist advancing on his father's legacy

Key testimony from @SecWar yesterday on how European allies can and should lead support for Ukraine.

@UAControlMap @Exilenova_plus I hope they have some additional evidence to indicate destruction b/c they obviously know people were going to look at the sat imagery. Is it possible some where damaged and hauled away?

@Exilenova_plus Further update from Robert Brovdi, 1st Unmanned Center did the strike. t.me/robert_magyar/…

Ukrainian drones struck the Shagol airfield, claiming to destroy a Su-34 and 2 x Su-57 on the 25th April 2026 Thanks to @Exilenova_plus for being a champ with the satellite imagery. Only looks like one aircraft struck to us though

@UkraineDailyUpd Appreciate the effort here. Read the analysis, hopefully Ukraine deals with this soon before it festers

Regarding developments in Kostyantynivka over the past few weeks: After the Russians' attempts to advance through the south toward the center of Kostyantynivka stalled around November 2025, their focus now appears to have shifted to the city’s flanks (double red arrows). Western flank of Kostyantynivka: Based on videos, the number of Russian soldiers in and around Stepanivka and Illinivka has increased significantly compared to recent weeks. Some soldiers have infiltrated as far as Dovha Balka and were able to wave flags in Illinivka. Although the dense network of anti-tank trenches (white lines) hinders Russian movements and makes them predictable, they are being breached with increasing frequency. Based on our experience with similar incidents in neighboring villages over the past few months, which did not lead to long-term consolidation, we are somewhat hesitant to place this area under Russian control. In addition, Ukrainian attacks in this area have almost exclusively destroyed Russian positions in basements or resulted in the neutralization of Russian soldiers. The Russians have been steadily expanding their control over the village of Berestok, located southeast of Kostyantynivka, in recent weeks. With the exception of a small contested section, they have managed to drive out the Ukrainians. Berestok serves as a key staging ground for Russian forces to infiltrate the south-west of Kostyantynivka and into Illinivka. Central/Southern Kostyantynivka: Ukrainian forces continue to hold key buildings in the southern part of the city (hatched blue area) as well as south of the city and in Ivanopillya, where Russian soldiers raised their flags in November 2025 but have not yet been able to bring the area fully under their control. Key buildings in the southern part of Kostyantynivka include several industrial facilities, the Agricultural Technical School, and the Wagon Depot, which were infiltrated by a few Russian soldiers in isolated incidents weeks ago but appear to remain under Ukrainian control. In a disturbing development at the end of March, individual Russian soldiers managed to infiltrate industrial facilities in the city center (long dashed red arrow) and were engaged by Ukrainian forces. Because we lack ongoing geolocation data, which might suggest ongoing combat or a consolidation of forces, we assume Ukrainian forces eliminated them. Eastern flank of Kostyantynivka: While the Santurynivka district continues to be characterized by a scattered presence of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, the overall number of documented Russian forces in the area remained lower in the first months of 2026 compared to December 2025. However, a significant increase in Russian infiltration attempts has been observed since early April in the Hora district and toward Novodmytrivka. After months of Russian artillery fire targeting Ukrainian forces in the area, Russian soldiers are advancing along the edges of the sector, putting Ukrainian troops under intense pressure while simultaneously consolidating their positions in and around Predtechyne and Stupochky. The connection between these current developments and the impact of the withdrawal of elements of the 5th Assault Brigade and the deployment of elements of the 44th Mechanized Brigade remains unclear. General Development: Overall, the initiative remains with the Russian side, even though they have only achieved minor successes on the city’s flanks recently. The Ukrainians are holding on to isolated positions far behind the line of contact, which hinders Russian forces from consolidating. Due to this Ukrainian tactic, this part of the frontline is characterized by several-kilometer-deep contested zones (yellow area) where neither side holds full control. Furthermore, no major Ukrainian counterattacks have been observed recently; only the repulsion of Russian infiltrations and the recapture of positions near the contact line. This is likely due to Russian drones continuing to dominate the skies around the city, making any concentration of soldiers or vehicles extremely difficult. Entering the city with vehicles involves enormous risks, and most logistics are carried out by Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs), which minimizes Ukrainian infantry casualties. Similar ambitions can also be seen on the Russian side, though not yet on such a massive scale. Every few weeks or months, the Russians attempt to advance toward the city with armored vehicles. So far, these attempts have consistently been repelled before they reach the city limits, demonstrating that Ukrainian drone operations are preventing the Russians from deploying vehicles into the city. For the same reason, Russian infantry attacks usually consist of only one or two soldiers, which makes it difficult to take positions on a larger scale. In the coming weeks, it remains to be seen whether the Russians will manage to expand the area their infiltrators frequently move through. Their objectives are likely comparable to those in Pokrovsk a few months ago, when the Russians broke the line of contact through large-scale infiltrations, turning the urban area into a patchwork of Ukrainian and Russian positions that complicated Ukrainian defenses and enabled them to push Ukrainian forces out of the city. We'll continue to monitor the situation and check our map for any changes in other fighting directions as well. -> map.ukrdailyupdate.com

Le début d'année 2026 n'est pas très bon pour l'armée russe 🇷🇺 qui accumule les revers. Si la traditionnelle offensive de printemps n'a pas encore commencé, les forces russes ont laissé beaucoup de temps aux ukrainiens pour se fortifier. 🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️

@cameron19460429 They're always hiring in Oxnard!

I really should've applied for an internship at JP Morgan 💔.

The single most worrying defense reality in my opinion is that political leadership in the U.S during administration after administration has let other countries believe (rightfully so) that they can out last us or that eventually we will de-escalate even when we aren't fighting.

For the record, Germany is by far the largest purchaser of American arms in Europe, both for themselves and for Ukraine too. Under Chancellor Merz they have ramped up defense spending and are very important member of the NATO alliance. There is a case for moving some of the US forces in Germany further east, but there is no case to withdraw them from the continent altogether because the President is unhappy with something the Chancellor said.

@skateparken @NotWoofers Gotcha, either way, I'm liking the results

@RevengeofRatMan @NotWoofers Might just be a guard tower with some dudes with machineguns and maybe MANPADS if they're lucky.

Wow! The Ukrainians destroyed two Russian helicopters, an Mi-28 attack helicopter and an Mi-17 transport helicopter, over 150km from the front in Voronezh oblast.

Three months ago, Congress passed more aid for Ukraine, and @POTUS signed it into law. It’s not charity – it is an investment in a partnership with the world’s leaders in drone technology. Who is withholding appropriated funds from Ukraine? Are senior defense officials unwilling or not allowed to visit Ukraine? washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…

@skateparken @NotWoofers What are the red things you circled? I can't tell/see

@NotWoofers The Mi-17/Mi-8M is a gunship version, it looks like, not a mere transporter.

@Schizointel Good. I just hope that after Cuba Russia will be next to be dismembered

We have seen War Power Resolutions for both Venezuela and Iran prior to the Trump administration launching military actions on them. With today's War Power Resolution regarding Cuba failing Congress has given the political green light to this administration to conduct military operations against Cuba.