Rich Chiu

jo, thanks for the repost and the comment. i am just a small account that occasionally replies to posts, but the systematic and coordinated manipulation by those big accounts has particularly compelled me to speak out and voice the perspective of the silent majority. i am glad we agree that there will be a time window where tesla's valuation rises while spacex's declines. in my opinion, this windown will likely be much longer than you expect, and it will probably coincide with the FED's next tightening cycle. therefore, if people truly want a merger, a much bigger tesla could use that period to acquire a much smaller spacex. doing the deal that way would be easier, given elon musk's super majority voting control at spacex. the same army of manipulators could then be mobilized to convince elon and spacex shareholders to swallow a short-term loss for the sake of the long-term vision.

jo, again disappinted by your view on the tesla-spacex merger. rather than being a massive bullish catalyst for tesla as claimed by you, the 1-to-1 merger could actually be a significant downside risk for tesla shareholders. first, the assumption that spacex's higher valuation will pull tesla up ignores the mechanics of an IPO. if spacex goes public soon, its initial high valuation will likely be driven by a massive supply-demand imbalance, as demand from retail investors and passive index funds vastly outpaces the available float. once the lock-up periods expire and insider shares flood the market, that artificial scarcity vanishes. if tesla is pegged 1-to-1 with an asset that starts experiencing a post-hype valuation correction, spacex will act as an anchor dragging tesla down, not a magnet pulling it up. second, the two companies have diverging duration profiles. right now, they are at completely different stages in their capital and monetization cycles. tesla’s duration profile is actively improving. with the robotaxi network ramping up, we are entering the harvest season. on the other hand, spacex is moving in the opposite direction. while starlink is a great business, the new "orbital datacenter" narrative is highly capital intensive and years away from maturity. it is essentially a pie-in-the-sky story for the next 3 years. the bottom line is, if a 1-to-1 merger happens, tesla shareholders are essentially being asked to trade a stake in a company that is finally realizing its long-awaited autonomous cash flows for a stake in a company that is burning billions to build out space infrastructure. it is entirely plausible - and i'd argue highly probable - that over the next 3 years, tesla’s valuation goes up organically based on real robotaxi revenue, while spacex’s valuation stagnates or even declines substantially. the more i think about this merger, the more certain i am that i will vote against it, based on both short-term and long-term reasons. what if tesla can acquire a much smaller spacex in the next hiking cycle(a highly possible scenario in the next 3 years) with tesla shareholders retaining the majority ownership of the merged company? if elon musk doesn't want to trade short-term loss for long-term vision, which is the exact argument currently sold by those manipulators, so be it and let the two companies remain as separate entities. also, i can now clearly see there is a systematic and coordinated push by those manipulators. they first tried to sell the plot of spacex acquiring tesla with a premium of only 20-40%. likely due to the strong pushback from retail investors, they are pushing for the so-called merger of equals. however, by just using common senese, these manipulations can be seen through as a direct hit to tesla shareholders' interests. i am deeply disappionted that even jo appears to be siding with the manipulators, abandoning his typically cool, analystical approach.

Super uncomfortable truth from my DMs: ‘I can't believe Tesla lied to us about "new affordable models" on five consecutive shareholder decks.’

Some of us have been investing in the $TSLA vision of robotaxi since 2016 (or before). “The greatest asset value increase overnight with a software download.” - Elon We’ve patiently supported and sown as Tesla solved an incredibly hard problem, with the promise of an incredibly valuable business. I believe the value of TSLA is at least $1,500/sh based on what we’ve built. All that’s required is to scale it. Now the specter of getting bought out by SpaceX puts a clock on that value recognition. If Tesla can’t realize their 10 year vision and reap the value creation before getting bought out, shareholders will lose half or more of that value recognition through dilution. For Elon, he must get SpaceX IPO done quickly before Tesla gets way too expensive. There’s no way SpaceX could buy a $5T Tesla. For SpaceX to be the buying company (and the dual class share structure to be the final structure), they must act before Tesla runs away. Unfortunately this perverts the incentives. The best thing for SpaceX (Elon) is for Tesla (Elon) to slow-roll robotaxi until SpaceX can buy them. It may be inevitable now based on the disclosures during the call yesterday. I’m just trying to illuminate the probable path for people who can’t see it yet. If Elon asks you to sell your shares to SpaceX for less than $1,500/share, you’ll know what happened. Influencers will try to tell you this is for the best. What it actually means is that you will get 50% or less of the value recognition due to dilution, and SpaceX shareholders get the rest. My position is simple. Tesla shareholders deserve to see the realization of the value creation of the business we’ve invested in for 10 years. $5T should do it. Tesla is undervalued. Then we can talk about merging with SpaceX. I say this as a Tesla and SpaceX shareholder. I’m going to get robotaxi profits either way. I’m saying all this looking out for retail investors who didn’t get the change to buy SpaceX in 2021. SpaceX has 10x for me since then. TSLA has done nothing. It’s time to scale robotaxi and for Tesla shareholders to reap.