Richleech

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Richleech

Richleech

@Richleech2

Hedici. Stock Investor. Inflection point. Collector. Arblocks, Brightmoments, fxhash. Some 1/1 that heals my heart. Banner: Parnassus/PFP: Edifice. @GrailersDAO

Wherever there's Art.. Katılım Ocak 2021
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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
Sketchbook B #30 by @williamapan on @verse_works " A Stolen Glance into Chromatic Dreams" This evokes the sense of looking at something partially hidden or revealed, as if the vibrant geometric patterns on the right are a secret world that can only be glimpsed through the rectangular window in the dominant red field.
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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
@RihardJarc I always prefer good ROI over buyback, and I'm an investor who can wait.
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Rihard Jarc
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc·
The zero-interest rate era has, in many cases, changed the mindset of stock investors for the worse. For years, Big Tech companies didn't know what to do with their accumulated earnings and have stockpiled their balance sheets with cash or/and initiated big buyback programs and dividends. The reason a company pays a dividend or does a buyback is that it signals that internally, they don't see any projects worth the ROI to invest in, and instead choose to return capital to shareholders. While these periods in the short-term might be enticing for many investor they signal lower growth potential over a longer period of time. But now we are finally in a period where Big Tech companies are investing large amounts in CapEx, which, in turn, reduces or even lowers their FCF to zero, as they are signaling with their actions and words that they see big investment opportunities (future growth). A rational investor would be excited about such times, as it signals accelerating long-term growth for these companies, but on the market, the opposite is happening. IMO, there are two reasons for this. One is the irrational reaction that has become ingrained in many investors' minds over the past years, as they have become accustomed to Big Tech doing massive buybacks and dividends, giving them a sense of less change and more predictable short-term results, even if it is at the expense of higher long-term growth. The second reason, which is a rational one in essence, is that a long-term investor would not like such an act if they believe these investments won't yield good returns. I believe both reasons have taken over the sentiment in the market, and while I can't rationally relate to the first reason, when it comes to the second reason of fearing what the ROI will be on these CapEx, I believe investors are overly concerned. These companies are already showing us that their "2023 AI CapEx" investments are turning into really good ROIs. You can look at the accelerating revenue of $META or $GOOGL's GCP margin, which jumped to 30% from 17% despite AI workloads being the biggest driver of growth. On top of that, almost anyone who has seriously used this new technology in any field has at some point been amazed by its effects. In one sense, the market expects SaaS to die as everyone vibecodes and uses live-generated SaaS tools. At the same time, the market also believes the investments needed to generate these tokens for this usage are unnecessary and will result in poor ROI. For a long-term investor, this sentiment, on top of the period of accelerating growth and efficiency that will come from this new technology, is a gift, not a curse. The investors able to adapt to this new shift in mindset away from the ZIRP thinking will be the ones who will benefit the most.
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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
@FundaAI I've been thinking about this issue for a long time myself, and I still do. So I can strongly agree with this opinion.
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FundaAI
FundaAI@FundaAI·
The issues Citrini discusses are ones we also frequently discussed in our LLM Series last year, though we never presented such a grand narrative. I'm not as pessimistic, mainly for two reasons. -The demand reduction mentioned by Citrini is actually caused by productivity improvements. Demand reduction brought about by productivity improvements is a very special economic scenario, and most of it can be compensated by macro policies, which is completely different from other demand reduction scenarios. -After working hours decrease, humans will have a significant amount of time for consumption and entertainment. You cannot assume that all friction and consumption will be replaced by AI, otherwise humans would become vegetables. Imagine the lifestyle patterns of people who now have plenty of free time - more time is spent on short videos, games, and shopping. In reality, we need to refer to the economic systems of Norway and Saudi Arabia, which may be highly similar in the future. When profits increasingly concentrate at mega companies, systems similar to Norway and Saudi Arabia's oil systems or sovereign wealth fund systems will emerge. More transfer payments will be distributed to people in the form of high welfare benefits. Human working hours will continue to decrease, but consumption time will continue to increase.
FundaAI@FundaAI

Citrini wrote it really well. Going forward, we do need a very serious discussion about how to use redistribution to ensure that the profits AI saves or creates also benefit the parts of society that don’t directly benefit from AI. There may be gaps between policy design and implementation, but those can likely be resolved in thoughtful ways over time. I don’t think this undermines SEMI’s current narrative. If anything, it reinforces the long-term runway for AI and the durability of the business model.

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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
Leaving behind our family's dreamlike first trip to Spain... back to everyday life.
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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
@graceb_art Very sad and getting angry. Really sorry to hear this. This is really a major obstacle to developing this space.
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grace
grace@graceb_art·
i was hacked/scammed. the scammers took all btc (most my savings), eth and tezos from my ledger wallets (my fault for writing the seed phrase in what seemed to be a super legit, double-checked website). i am stupidly, you are not. not to worry. i will be off for a long while. never entertain a call from coinbase nor trust an email even if the email address seems legit (it will be legit, just cloned). this happened at 1am, of course i was not thinking properly, don’t answer the phone as 1am. : )
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helena sarin
helena sarin@NeuralBricolage·
The most beautiful composition from yesterdays night - such a striking visual dialog 🥺 @sofiagarcia_io has an amazing intuition and impeccable taste 🙌
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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
@williamapan I really like this shadow that creates a three-dimensional effect
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William Mapan
William Mapan@williamapan·
code-painting™
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Hasan Göktepe
Hasan Göktepe@hasangoktepe3d·
gm, isle of the dead, reference and final
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zach lieberman
zach lieberman@zachlieberman·
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zach lieberman
zach lieberman@zachlieberman·
Light work
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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
@Eko3316 Gm, like a haven on clouds. wanna enjoy ☕️ there.
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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
@RihardJarc Any clues or hints about with a wristband with hand movements and the launch price?
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Rihard Jarc
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc·
$META getting ready to launch the first AI smartglasses with displays (named Hypernova) in about a month. You are going to be able to control it with a wristband with hand movements. Priced at around the $800 range - WOW. Big news as the timing is perfect with AI agents starting & the pricing seems spot on. The market is not yet assigning positive value to $META ‘s AR unit, but that might change soon.
Rihard Jarc@RihardJarc

My prediction is that this year, the market will start to assign a positive value to $META's AR unit, rather than a zero or even a negative one that is present today. AR smartglasses are the next big computing platform, especially with AI agents navigated by voice.

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Richleech
Richleech@Richleech2·
Same palette in different collections Edifice #67(L) and 100 Print #85(R) Palette: Sunflower🌻 by @bendotk
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