Thoughts on how US and Iran got here:
1. It’s worth remembering that this war is being fought over an issue -- the status of the Strait of Hormuz -- that wasn’t even in dispute before the previous war. In other words, today’s war would not be happening without the prior one, which should never have happened at all.
2. The breakdown of the MOU reflects its remarkably shoddy, imprecise drafting. One could drive a truck – or an aircraft carrier – through paragraph 5 on Hormuz, with Washington & Tehran each pointing to different clauses to assert diametrically opposed interpretations.
3. The breakdown also reflects the two sides’ widely differing assessments of who has greater leverage and who can better withstand a return to war. Iran believes the US will crack first under soaring oil prices and rattled markets. The US believes Iran will crack first as its funds dwindle and its infrastructure is further degraded. At least one side is overplaying its hand. Most likely, both are.
4. Finally, the breakdown reflects dysfunctionalities within both political systems.
In Tehran, there are growing signs of a split in the leadership -- between those who want to cash in on battlefield gains through diplomacy, and those who believe the ceasefire came prematurely, before the US had truly felt the economic pain, and that in any event Iran cannot trust American commitments.
In Washington, there are constant signs of a split within Trump himself -- between moments when he worries about the economic costs of war, and moments when he casually waves them away.
The most plausible off-ramp is for the mediators to broker a modus vivendi over Hormuz : Iran halts attacks on commercial shipping; the US scales back its efforts to develop alternative transit routes through the Strait.
But, put the elements together, and prospects look ominous : elements on both sides believe they can absorb the costs of escalation and, more importantly, that they must prove it; Iran will be tempted to widen the conflict by striking more – and more vital -- regional targets; and Trump will be tempted to double down on an already lawless campaign...
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