Phil Gordon

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Phil Gordon

Phil Gordon

@PhilGordonDC

White House, NSC, and State Dept in Biden, Obama and Clinton admins; Sydney Stein Scholar at Brookings; Executive Partner XN; author, Losing the Long Game.

Katılım Ocak 2025
659 Takip Edilen6.8K Takipçiler
Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Supporters of the war in Iran have increasingly begun to acknowledge the high "costs of action" but to claim they are still lower than the "costs of inaction." Fair enough as a framework, and maybe even compelling if the result of the war was the permanent elimination of Iran's nuclear, missile, and drone programs or the installation of a new, less threatening, and more tolerant leadership. In the absence of achieving those goals, however, their case depends on arguing that degrading Iran's conventional military capabilities (a valid objective) is worth large numbers of civilian deaths and wounded, U.S. military casualties, soaring energy and food prices, mounting costs to U.S. taxpayers (now reflected in a potential supplemental funding request of $200bn), rising inflation and interest rates and recession risk, a financial and strategic windfall for Russia, the diversion of military assets from the Indo-Pacific and Europe, the risk of U.S. and allied missile-defense interceptor shortages, stress on U.S. force readiness, growing tensions within NATO and the transatlantic relationship, further erosion of U.S. "soft power," the collapse of trust in Washington, civil aviation and shipping disruptions, costs to Gulf economies and their reputations for stability, rising violence and instability in Lebanon and Iraq, the possibility of Iran sliding into enduring internal chaos, conflict, and violence, and whatever other unintended consequences may emerge down the road. That is a hard case to make that is getting harder every day.
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
To list of unintended consequences of Iran war add halt in fertilizer exports just before planting season. Knock-on effects on global food prices, struggling farmers, and Gulf countries already hit by falling tourism and oil exports. Good piece by @noah_gordon_ and Lucy Corthell.
Carnegie Endowment@CarnegieEndow

With the Strait of Hormuz almost entirely closed, fertilizer producers face major disruptions during a critical time of planting season. @noah_gordon_ and Lucy Corthell break down the potential strain on the global food system: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/…

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
I think it goes beyond that narrow question. It's also about whether they should reward outright bullying, bail out a president who did not consult them, encourage potential further recklessness, and take significant political risk. Even on narrow cost/risk basis answer not obvious but don't think the externalities can be ignored.
Shashank Joshi@shashj

The question of whether Europeans should or should not help in Hormuz is not about whether they should approve or disapprove of the war. It's about their own interest in re-opening the strait, whether that can be done with available assets, and the costs & risks of doing so.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
@gideonrachman Sadly true. After Greenland it seemed Europeans had learned lesson that leverage works, but no sign they are willing to use it here.
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Gideon Rachman
Gideon Rachman@gideonrachman·
@PhilGordonDC Yes I basically agree. Just making the point that European allies have leverage over Trump for the first time for a long time. And that he has ended the days when we helped each other simply because that is what is allies do
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
They would still face huge political blowback if lives were lost in support of a war their people strongly oppose, which would not likely be alleviated by financial gain. Don't think that would compensate for how Trump has treated Europe, and now chickens coming home to roost.
Gideon Rachman@gideonrachman

If the US is asking European and Asian allies to send their navies to the Strait of Hormuz, they should consider demanding an immediate cessation of all US tariffs on them in return. I don't think Trump would hesitate to make that demand, if the situations were reversed.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Also claims that "with energy independence we don't need them the way we did before," a misunderstanding of global oil markets that has led to $100/bl oil and higher gas prices in the US. If Trump follows through on his threat to "wipe out oil infrastructure" on the basis that the US is now "energy independent" he will discover that he is also misunderstanding that term.
Emma Vigeland@EmmaVigeland

Here’s Hegseth in 2020, saying that the US should target Iran’s cultural sites.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
The Trump Administration can now plausibly claim to have achieved its minimalist stated goal of significantly setting back Iranian military capabilities, including missile and nuclear programs, missile defenses, navy, and leadership. The next-level objectives—securing the highly enriched uranium and changing the Iranian regime—are still so far away that they are not worth the costs and risks of escalation. Pursuing either goal would likely require many more weeks of military action, carry serious risks of ground operations, cause additional military and civilian casualties, and prolong the closure or lead to the mining of the Strait of Hormuz, with the potential for oil shut-ins and persistently high prices. It could also invite Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping (pushing oil prices even higher); generate further windfalls for Russia from higher oil prices and sanctions relief; create dangerous interceptor shortages; divert forces from other theaters; and produce a range of other unintended and unpredictable consequences. Critics who say ending the war now would leave in place an angry, vengeful Iran that could eventually rebuild and again threaten its neighbors are not wrong; but that risk has to be compared with the certain costs and risks of pursuing unachievable objectives and doubling-down when they are not attained. At this point even if the U.S. seeks to end the war Iran may not be willing to do so without imposing further costs on its attackers, but that only means U.S. escalatory options would be better used as leverage to try to end the war and shape its aftermath than as a way to try to dig out of the hole we are already in.
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
The Strait is effectively closed, ships are on fire, oil is near $100/bl, Russia is reaping windfalls, the SPR is half-empty and we seem to have no solution for either drones or mines. So to say administration "knew this was Iran's plan" not a defense but an indictment.
Tim Sheehy@TimSheehyMT

I received a classified briefing from the administration. It is categorically false that they did not plan for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Lawmakers and national security officials have known for years that this was Iran’s plan once their backs were against the wall.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Any who defended the Iran nuclear deal over the past decade will recall being told they were too squeamish about using force against Iran and that the credible threat of force alone would produce a better deal. It is now clear neither of those things were true.
nxthompson@nxthompson

For decades, presidents have looked at striking Iran and opted against it out of concern for the very repercussions we’re seeing right now. @FranklinFoer on why none of this should be surprising: theatlantic.com/international/…

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Hard for Trump to "declare victory and go home" with Iran retaining its HEU, a Supreme Leader called Khamenei, and the Strait of Hormuz closed. But given his options he may have little choice, and track record (recall the Greenland "framework") suggests anything is possible. (Previous presidents often got sucked into escalation due to concerns about "credibility," but that seems less of an issue for Trump.)
Dmitri Alperovitch@DAlperovitch

At the risk of jeopardizing my thus-far successful track record of predicting war commencements (regretfully, I am three for three so far), I will venture into much harder territory: predicting war terminations. This war likely ends within two weeks, perhaps as soon as next week

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Trump and his team were well aware of all the risks of Middle East military intervention and campaigned on a promise to avoid them. Hard to conclude anything other than that results of "Midnight Hammer" and Venezuela raid went to his head.
Edward Wong@ewong

NEW from @nytimes: In the run-up to the Iran War, Trump ignored warnings that Iran could retaliate across the region and stop oil shipments. Now, with energy markets in chaos, some aides are pessimistic about the lack of a strategy to end the war. But they haven't told Trump.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
For decades our best plan to keep Strait open was to threaten use of force against Iran in case of closure--and it worked. By launching the war, Trump removed that threat and is left with very poor fallbacks. Threat of "fire and fury" not working because we're already doing that.
Chris Murphy 🟧@ChrisMurphyCT

5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Agree with @EdwardGLuce that of all the consequences of this war, the "damage to trust in America" may well prove most lasting. After the capricious, unilateral tariffs, the cutoff of aid to Ukraine, and the threat to take Greenland by force, the last thing US allies and others wanted was an unnecessary, poorly planned war about which they were not consulted but that affects them all profoundly. Even after Trump eventually "declares victory and goes home," the damage will have been done, and it will not be forgotten.
Edward Luce@EdwardGLuce

"Trump chose to go to war and has taken explicit satisfaction in his power of life and death. War is a grave step after all other options have been exhausted. That Trump preferred this one is hard to unsee." My column. ft.com/content/2f3efd…

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Easy to forget that just a few weeks ago we were saying that Greenland was a fundamental turning point that made the US look like a rogue actor to much of the world. That was the baseline before launching a reckless war in Iran that had little international support to begin with.
Ishaan Tharoor@ishaantharoor

I’m on holiday in India. This is a facile observation, but Americans have barely scratched the surface in understanding how the rest of the world is reacting to this war. It’s more than well on its way to becoming an Iraq War-style disaster in the global imagination, underscored by the perceived thuggishness and caprice of the Trump approach

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
And all they need are small numbers of missiles and drones to keep regional airports, refineries, gas terminals and Strait of Hormuz closed. Iran has learned from 3 previous exchanges with Israel since '24 not to fire large numbers of missiles long way only to see them shot down.
Suzanne Maloney@MaloneySuzanne

"By some estimates that U.S. officials provided to Congress in classified briefings this week, Iran still retains as much as about 50 percent of its missile program, and even more of its drones, one of which killed six U.S. Army reservists in Kuwait last Sunday."

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
We've entered the phase of the campaign where officials have to start wildly exaggerating the threat to justify the costs of war. The reputations of those who did that to justify Iraq 20+ years ago never recovered.
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Rubio on the urgency behind striking Iran: "If we don't hit them now, a year from now, a year and a half from now, no one will be able to touch them, and they will be able to do whatever they want." x.com/clashreport/st…

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