Phil Gordon

Thoughts on how US and Iran got here: 1. It’s worth remembering that this war is being fought over an issue -- the status of the Strait of Hormuz -- that wasn’t even in dispute before the previous war. In other words, today’s war would not be happening without the prior one, which should never have happened at all. 2. The breakdown of the MOU reflects its remarkably shoddy, imprecise drafting. One could drive a truck – or an aircraft carrier – through paragraph 5 on Hormuz, with Washington & Tehran each pointing to different clauses to assert diametrically opposed interpretations. 3. The breakdown also reflects the two sides’ widely differing assessments of who has greater leverage and who can better withstand a return to war. Iran believes the US will crack first under soaring oil prices and rattled markets. The US believes Iran will crack first as its funds dwindle and its infrastructure is further degraded. At least one side is overplaying its hand. Most likely, both are. 4. Finally, the breakdown reflects dysfunctionalities within both political systems. In Tehran, there are growing signs of a split in the leadership -- between those who want to cash in on battlefield gains through diplomacy, and those who believe the ceasefire came prematurely, before the US had truly felt the economic pain, and that in any event Iran cannot trust American commitments. In Washington, there are constant signs of a split within Trump himself -- between moments when he worries about the economic costs of war, and moments when he casually waves them away. The most plausible off-ramp is for the mediators to broker a modus vivendi over Hormuz : Iran halts attacks on commercial shipping; the US scales back its efforts to develop alternative transit routes through the Strait. But, put the elements together, and prospects look ominous : elements on both sides believe they can absorb the costs of escalation and, more importantly, that they must prove it; Iran will be tempted to widen the conflict by striking more – and more vital -- regional targets; and Trump will be tempted to double down on an already lawless campaign...

Yes, DC/Tel Aviv launched an illegal war which jettisoned international rules. But the 'might makes right' aspect of this is much older; the Gaza genocide being the most obvious milestone. As for the lack of united response; DC is only one factor, and needn't be centered so much.

This is just pure thuggery. Tehran overplaying its hand quite foolishly. Yes, they are dealing with a Washington that completely disregarded international law and went to war against it; but this is permanentising acts of war in peace time. Tehran needs to think very carefully.

WOW -- Danish reporter *goes there* with Mark Rutte "You sit next to Donald Trump at moments when he talks about conquering Greenland, talks about lashing out at allies like Spain -- things it doesn't seem like the old Mark Rutte would approve of. Does this have any affect on your self-respect when you sit there and say nothing?"

Ankara now seems to be ready to meet the US halfway on the S-400 issue in a way that addresses previous US concerns and can meet congressional requirements

a confused Trump has difficulty understanding a question from a reporter: Q: There are concerns about the Russian missile defense system. Do you have those concerns about this system? TRUMP: I have no concerns about anything

This embarrassing groveling by NATO chief Mark Rutte in front of Trump was less than two weeks ago. It never works. At his core, Trump hates NATO and the Western alliance. He openly admires Putin and other dictators around the world.