Phil Gordon

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Phil Gordon

Phil Gordon

@PhilGordonDC

Sydney Stein Jr. Scholar, Brookings. Payne Lecturer, Stanford. White House, NSC, and State in Biden, Obama and Clinton admins; author, Losing the Long Game.

Katılım Ocak 2025
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
The fact that so many proponents of the Iran war are criticizing Trump’s looming deal is less an indictment of the deal than it is of the war. It means they can't defend the results of the policy they advocated for so long so are reduced to claiming that victory would have been around the corner if only Trump had stayed the course... (which only they seem to believe). They are right that the deal will leave the US worse off than before the war but fail to recognize, or at least refuse to admit, that the mistake was the war, not the deal.
Mike Pompeo@mikepompeo

The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world. Not remotely America First. It’s straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region. Overdue. Let’s go.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
It would be hard enough to defend if Trump had leveraged a large Taiwan arms package to get some major concession from Beijing. But to take something that was never up for negotiation and then give it away for free only because you made it a bargaining chip would be quite a feat.
William Yang@WilliamYang120

U.S. President Donald Trump will decide on Taiwan arms sales soon, a source familiar with the matter told CNA on Friday, after media reports said Washington had paused a proposed US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan because of the war with Iran. "As President Trump said, he will make a decision regarding Taiwan arms sales soon.” focustaiwan.tw/politics/20260…

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
This is a fundamental abdication of leadership, presented as if Russia and Ukraine were equally responsible for the current situation. The U.S. is not just some benevolent honest broker trying to sort out a local squabble but a global leader with an interest in ensuring that Russia fails in its quest to change borders by force and subjugate Ukraine. Washing its hands of the situation only undermines that objective and makes ongoing war more likely, not less.
NEXTA@nexta_tv

⚡️ BREAKING: US halts Ukraine peace talks “We were the only ones both Russians and Ukrainians were willing to talk to. So we got involved. Unfortunately, it didn’t yield results. That’s the point,” — said Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rubio added that Washington will return to negotiations only if the dynamics change, and noted: “If someone else wants to take this on — please, be my guest.”

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Not since the Suez crisis have the US and Europe been so divided over the Middle East, but the split doesn't need to be permanent. My thoughts alongside an excellent companion piece by @NathalieTocci, with thanks to @ConStelz for convening the workshop.
Brookings Foreign Policy@BrookingsFP

"Given Europe’s divisions, its dependency on Washington, and the Trump administration’s hostility—prospects for cooperation will be dim until there is a U.S. government more aligned with Europe on policy and more open to cooperation." @PhilGordonDC writes: brook.gs/3Pyh4QC

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Phil Gordon retweetledi
FSI Stanford
FSI Stanford@FSIStanford·
🗓️ EVENT TOMORROW | May 21, 3:30pm PT Join @StanfordCISAC for the Payne Distinguished Lecture with Philip H. Gordon, who will discuss why a liberal, U.S.-led world order can and should be saved. ☑️ Register at the link below ow.ly/3TMP50YZfoU
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Not from "every high-ranking Israeli official," since he is one himself. So long as Ben-Gvir remains Israel's Minister of National Security, the “outrage and condemnation” by others in the cabinet, including the one who appointed him, will ring hollow.
Ambassador Mike Huckabee@GovMikeHuckabee

Universal outrage & condemnation from every high-ranking Israeli official from @IsraeliPM @IsraelMFA @gidonsaar @IsraelPresident @yechielleiter @IsraelinUSA for despicable actions by Ben Gvir. Flotilla was stupid stunt, but Ben Gvir betrayed dignity of his nation.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Trump must deeply regret having followed Netanyahu's advice. He passed up a deal with Iran in February he could have claimed was "better than Obama's" and rolled the dice on a war that completely backfired, severely damaging his economy and political prospects at the same time. Hardly surprising if he is reluctant to take Netanyahu's advice again.
Alex Ward@alexbward

Trump and LNetanyahu held a contentious call Tuesday evening, people familiar with the matter said, with Netanyahu railing against a pact to end the war with Iran and Trump defending the diplomatic process.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Highly recommend this essay. Entire world has stake in which of these two competing visions for U.S. foreign policy will prevail.
Tom Wright@thomaswright08

My new Penguin e-book, Inflection Point: Biden, Trump, and the Future World Order, is now available to buy (for $6). This is a part of @LowyInstitute's wonderful Penguin paper series. Many thanks to @mfullilove and @SamRoggeveen. The overall argument of the book is that there are now two Americas—an internationalist America that will likely focus on strategic competition and deepening alliances and an America First movement that will be much more skeptical of allies, favorable to punitive tariffs and predatory. Unlike strategies of containment in the Cold War, these are largely antithetical. Each will compete with, but will never fully vanquish, the other—at least not for some time. If you look at all US presidential elections since 1944, Republicans are currently in their 42nd year and Dems have had 40. So it splits 50:50. The challenge for the world is to hedge against this dramatic fluctuation. Two of the chapters are on my time in the Biden administration. Two are on Trump’s second term. And one looks at where we go from here. The two Biden chapters offer my reflections on our Ukraine and Indo-Pacific policies in particular. Some specifics that you all might find interesting: My account of the risk of Russian nuclear use in October 2022. How we actually thought about escalation and military assistance to Ukraine. What we thought of the Global South’s peace efforts (some were legitimate and sincere, some were not). How we thought about the diplomatic endgame in Ukraine. My account of the balloon incident of 2023 and the trajectory of our China policy. How AUKUS came to be—why it might not have happened if the president knew how France would react but why it was still the right thing to do. The lessons Democrats are learning from Biden’s foreign policy and where it is likely to go from here. And what America First may look like after Trump. I hope you all get a chance to read Inflection Point. I will be in Australia next week for a series of events to launch it. amazon.com/Inflection-Poi…

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
The deadpan delivery of the biographical points in this post is Pulitzer-worthy. More seriously, the revelation underscores the "spaghetti-on-the-wall" nature of the thinking behind this war and belies the notion that helping the Iranian people was actually one of its aims.
Mark Mazzetti@MarkMazzettiNYT

NEW: The regime change plan at the beginning of the Iran War called for installing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's former hard line president known for accelerating the nuclear program and denying the Holocaust, as the country's new. leader.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/…

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Even worse is that his argument is a total strawman. The vast majority of his critics agree entirely that Iran should not get a nuclear weapon and don't need his long explanations why it's a bad idea. Who is he arguing with? The critique is that this war was a costly and counterproductive way to achieve that goal, not that it's the wrong goal.
Stephen Wertheim@stephenwertheim

An Iranian nuclear bomb might indeed lead a few other countries in the Gulf to go nuclear. That outcome is worth preventing. But Vance's nuclear domino theory is extreme. It takes the conventional domino theory — which Vietnam should have discredited (and which Trump himself dismissed in the Oval Office with Zelensky last February) — and applies it to weapons that are maximally costly and risky to build. Especially questionable is Vance's implication that nuclear weapons would automatically spread to other regions beyond the Middle East.

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Gaurav Kapadia
Gaurav Kapadia@gauravkapadia·
I am thrilled to announce the launch of Totei.com. Totei is a magazine devoted to craft and craftsmanship in all its forms. The name Totei comes from the ancient Japanese word for apprentice. I have always been inspired by those with a deep devotion to their craft—across every discipline. Making something truly remarkable requires extraordinary dedication, and the creative process behind it is rarely seen. That curiosity is why I started Totei. My hope is that everyone who reads it feels the same sense of inspiration I do when getting inside the minds of exceptional makers.
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
DC's loss is Berlin's gain... Congrats to @SophiaBesch (and @gmfus)!
German Marshall Fund@gmfus

📣 GMF is pleased to welcome @SophiaBesch as research director and managing director for transatlantic security, based in our Berlin office. Besch is a leading expert in transatlantic and European security, defense, and policy. She joins GMF from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and brings extensive experience from the Centre for European Reform, the Atlantic Council, Johns Hopkins SAIS, and the American-German Institute. At GMF, she will oversee our research agenda and lead work on transatlantic and European defense industrial issues. 🔗 Learn more: bit.ly/495sFgz

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
@stephenwertheim Can't disagree that war would be really undesirable (even if not 9,500 miles away), just think unhelpful to lean into that, especially while questioning past assurances, floating arms sales as bargaining chip, accusing Taiwan of stealing our chip industry, etc.
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Stephen Wertheim
Stephen Wertheim@stephenwertheim·
I agree that Trump’s Taiwan statements were counterproductive (especially if he acts on them), but regarding your first sentence, I read Trump as saying most clearly that a U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be really undesirable, not necessarily that Taiwan was not worth defending. From the Fox interview: “We're supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I'm not looking for that. I want [Taiwan] to cool down. I want China to cool down.”
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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
There was no upside to Trump musing about Taiwan being a small, far-away island that might not be worth defending. On top of suggestion that past assurances no longer valid and arms sales linkage, it undermines deterrence--the only thing preventing conflict or Chinese takeover.
Ryan Hass@ryanl_hass

Axios:“Some close advisers to Trump fear the China summit heightened danger that Xi Jinping will take control of Taiwan in next five years.” This reporting reinforces my concern that Beijing will be emboldened, not soothed, by Trump’s posture. #story5" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">axios.com/newsletters/ax… #axiosam

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
It would be more accurate to attribute Europe's defense buildup to Trump gutting NATO's Article V than to "forceful leadership." Europe is sending Leopards, F-16s, Storm Shadows, SCALPS, and drones to Ukraine while US has ended assistance not to please Trump but despite his efforts to force Kyiv to surrender.
James Jay Carafano@JJCarafano

We only disagree in that the U.S. is NOT at fault here. If it were not for @realDonaldTrump forceful leadership there would be NO European arms build up. Berlin would still be sending helmets and MREs and saying “good luck”. Sad case of TDS

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
It is hard to square Rubio‘s insistence that Taiwan policy is “unchanged“ with Trump implying the 1982 assurances have expired, his willingness to discuss arms sales (in great detail) with Beijing, and his overall tone of a disloyal Taiwan that wouldn't be worth defending. Those shifts are more significant than the change in declaratory policy that he didn’t make.
Lev Nachman@lnachman32

Before the trip, Trump was ambiguous about Taiwan. In the last 24 hours, his language towards Taiwan has changed to more closely resemble what Beijing wants to hear. Even without a formal policy change, these rhetorical changes are a big win for Xi.

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Phil Gordon
Phil Gordon@PhilGordonDC·
Honored to be giving the Payne Lecture at Stanford (and online) next Thursday. I will argue that for all its flaws, a liberal, U.S.-led world order has served us well, and should be repaired, not abandoned. Looking forward to many questions and reactions. cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/payne-d…
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Keşfet

@NathalieTocci @ConStelz @StanfordCISAC @gauravkapadia @SophiaBesch @gmfus @stephenwertheim @elonmusk