
Phil Gordon
754 posts

Phil Gordon
@PhilGordonDC
White House, NSC, and State Dept in Biden, Obama and Clinton admins; Sydney Stein Scholar at Brookings; Executive Partner XN; author, Losing the Long Game.


With the Strait of Hormuz almost entirely closed, fertilizer producers face major disruptions during a critical time of planting season. @noah_gordon_ and Lucy Corthell break down the potential strain on the global food system: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/…

The question of whether Europeans should or should not help in Hormuz is not about whether they should approve or disapprove of the war. It's about their own interest in re-opening the strait, whether that can be done with available assets, and the costs & risks of doing so.


If the US is asking European and Asian allies to send their navies to the Strait of Hormuz, they should consider demanding an immediate cessation of all US tariffs on them in return. I don't think Trump would hesitate to make that demand, if the situations were reversed.

🚨Trump on Truth Social: Many Countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships, in conjunction with the United States of America, to keep the Strait open and safe. We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are. Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint, will send Ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a Nation that has been totally decapitated. In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!

Here’s Hegseth in 2020, saying that the US should target Iran’s cultural sites.


I received a classified briefing from the administration. It is categorically false that they did not plan for Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz. Lawmakers and national security officials have known for years that this was Iran’s plan once their backs were against the wall.

For decades, presidents have looked at striking Iran and opted against it out of concern for the very repercussions we’re seeing right now. @FranklinFoer on why none of this should be surprising: theatlantic.com/international/…

At the risk of jeopardizing my thus-far successful track record of predicting war commencements (regretfully, I am three for three so far), I will venture into much harder territory: predicting war terminations. This war likely ends within two weeks, perhaps as soon as next week

NEW from @nytimes: In the run-up to the Iran War, Trump ignored warnings that Iran could retaliate across the region and stop oil shipments. Now, with energy markets in chaos, some aides are pessimistic about the lack of a strategy to end the war. But they haven't told Trump.

5/ And on the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it say, right now, they don't know how to get it safely back open. Which is unforgiveable, because this part of the disaster was 100% foreseeable.


"Trump chose to go to war and has taken explicit satisfaction in his power of life and death. War is a grave step after all other options have been exhausted. That Trump preferred this one is hard to unsee." My column. ft.com/content/2f3efd…

I’m on holiday in India. This is a facile observation, but Americans have barely scratched the surface in understanding how the rest of the world is reacting to this war. It’s more than well on its way to becoming an Iraq War-style disaster in the global imagination, underscored by the perceived thuggishness and caprice of the Trump approach

"By some estimates that U.S. officials provided to Congress in classified briefings this week, Iran still retains as much as about 50 percent of its missile program, and even more of its drones, one of which killed six U.S. Army reservists in Kuwait last Sunday."

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Rubio on the urgency behind striking Iran: "If we don't hit them now, a year from now, a year and a half from now, no one will be able to touch them, and they will be able to do whatever they want." x.com/clashreport/st…