Robert
2.1K posts
Early cross-asset market action shows investors don't like Trump's "you can't blockade me, I'll blockade you" gambit, and punters in prediction markets are back to betting on a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz:
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@HodlMagoo Dude buys deep OTM leaps during ftx blowup then thinks he's a genius.
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@HodlMagoo @benjamincowen If CZ being pissed off was the reason for our bottom then we got off easy.
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@benjamincowen If it bottoms in Oct then the Republicans lose the midterms and Trump is impeached by Xmas.
For that reason alone I’ll say it bottoms way before that and possibility it already bottomed
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The most likely low for BTC is October 2026, based on the 4 year cycle.
Under some circumstances it could happen as early as May.
BTC does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle.
You can that the S&P 500 has gone through many periods where it bottoms approximately every 4 years.
Major lows tends to occur in early Q4, but in some cases it occasionally happens in May.
October would be favored if we get multiple week-to-month long countertrend rallies that delay things.
May would be favored if the countertrend rallies just last a few days to a couple weeks, and deeper drawdowns occur sooner.
I favor October over May for now, but as an investor we have to be aware that markets can always evolve in ways we do not expect.
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All my systems are short on $BTC & Alts, but they're starting to take some profits from the last couple weeks of trades. I think a local bottom should be forming soon on majors.
If equities begin to sell, then I think one more leg down is on the table... something sort of like 2022.
But for now, level by level. It's important not to chase downside after a move like we've just had. Moves like this are for closing shorts, not opening new ones.
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@PunterJeff Hopefully those pedestrian financial advisors are actually able to recommend it by then as well.
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Blackrock will run $IBIT sales campaigns front running the 2028 halving.
Ignore the noise, run the game theory, follow the signal.
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@Nakamotolisk Question is will I buy long deep long dated calls sometime later this year or not. In his last run from 2022, he wasn't utilizing the common share ATM. You'd think he would stop using it eventually and let the price run at some point.
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He's going to be underwater for a long time
I think it's 50/50 on whether saylor survives. I don't have a strong opinion on how bad this bear market gets.
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@Nakamotolisk With Saylors class B shares, he's got 45% voting power. For his assets to be worth less that his liabilities (including preferreds) BTC price would have to be below $25,000, and even then, there is no forced liquidation. Saylor is a freak, but he'll survive.
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@BecauseBitcoin @Prometheus_The1 @KingWabi @Nakamotolisk @mithcoons David after being quiet for 10 minutes
GIF
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@PunterJeff We wanted leveraged Bitcoin. We got leveraged Bitcoin.
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Saylor and $MSTR catching strays left and right.
Gold bugs attempting to dance on graves...
Just goes to show that people seem to forget that $MSTR started with $500M 5 years ago, and now have $58B worth of Bitcoin and $2.25B worth of USD Cash, and 14% leverage ratio...
Logic and rationality is non existent.
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Strategy balance sheet stats vs last time $MSTR traded at $144 (Sept 20, 2024).
Also comparison of leverage and amplification ratios as if the BTC price were the same price as September.
This appears to be one of the larger disconnects in risk/return that I have seen in my time tracking $MSTR
Jeff Walton@PunterJeff
Strategy tracking day 477 $MSTR now ranked 226th largest US company by market cap. Brutal day. Fell 22 companies today. Back in the land of public storage and Target. 18th largest publicly traded equity by volume. Last time $MSTR was trading at $144 was September 20th, 2024.
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@HodlMagoo @saylor I'll probably still buy long dated leaps 18 months from the halving, which is already October this year.
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A perspective on the absurdity of Strategy using trusted third parties to custody their BTC:
For the cost of a single weekly BTC purchase ($XXXM), they could afford to buy any of a number of companies that specialize in bitcoin custody, thus pulling the expertise in-house.
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Bitcoin has completely rejected from value AND WE ARE GOING LOWER.
Please heed these words!
Bitcoin has rejected from the the value we created all of last year and you now how confirmation. It has also rejected from the value we have created over the past two months.
That means price is rejecting the entire move we have made up since November of 24'. That is acceptance and confirmation that the entire region is now supply.
Your next region to watch for is the last significant value region bitcoin has created. Which is the 8 month range we created from Feb-Oct of 24'. The value within that region is 68k!
Ignore the bottom callers right now. Price is telling a CLEAR story, and I just outlined it.
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@i_am_jackis Waiting until 16 months before the next halving (this December) then going max long
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While I was gone, the crypto market behaved exactly as expected and confirmed the HTF bearish momentum with two weeks rejection at range highs & follow through in the latest one.
From my view, the market is signaling that further downside is more than likely and unless we get some level reclaims, such is the bias.
And what about you? Are you expecting a turn around from these prices, this being a "bait" or positioned for a further downside? Or have you moved to stocks/commodities only at last?
JACKIS@i_am_jackis
Over the weekend & on the start of a new year BTC managed to reclaim December open at 90.3K & Total at 3T. Is the market bullish now? Or are bears still in control? The answer to that question will depend on a timeframe we are looking at That flip was a trigger for me that BTC should be heading towards range highs next, prolonging the compression further, giving the market an intermediate relief rally. And so it is. Imo one shouldn't be stepping infront of this train just yet, however one also shouldn't get blindfolded by the reality Q4 25 sellers remain in control. The November impulse down was clear on that & the price has been ranging and re-accumulating since. Both BTC & Total lost their key demands now being retested as a resistance. In order for BTC/Total to get bullish, price would need to see buyers step in and reclaim the sellers at ~96 to begin with. It would also require the stock market being at new ATHs. Any drops over there will be very sensitive for the digital assets space Where are you on the table? Do you think that the bottom is in before new highs? If so, will the Yearly Open get retested? Or are you waiting for the exit complacency shoulder and if so how high?
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It is really hard to point out the "cycle top" of this cycle
You have most alts that topped in March 24.
Then you have many such as Doge that topped in Dec 24.
Then you have stuff like ETH that "topped" in August 25 while it remains within a macro range and BTC in Oct 25
All while Doge & ETH never went for a price discovery this "cycle", while BTC was in a bull market until Oct 25 but has been underperforming macro stuff (with which it competes) for nearly 2 years
Pick a winner 🤷♂️
PAIN & LOVE@painandloveband
@i_am_jackis If you just look at the timing then Nov 2024 was a top. Now it just remains to be seems if we are into another bear market for a other year or two or if the four year cycle is broken and 2026 is bullish for alts and a lot break their ath
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@MysticRyan rarely mentioned quality of life aspect of PS5 is how silent it is. I had to have my tv in the middle of my room, then the PS4 further back against the wall so it wouldn't distract me during TLOU2.
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