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Robin Schaefer
3.1K posts
Robin Schaefer
@RobinMSchaefer
Nuffield Scholar (Weather)+General manager of Collaborative farming venture Bulla Burra+ Past President SPAA (Society of Precision Agriculture Australia)
Loxton, South Australia Katılım Ağustos 2012
908 Takip Edilen3.1K Takipçiler
Robin Schaefer retweetledi
Tens of thousands of slabs of reinforced concrete weighing up to 1,000 tonnes are being abandoned in the ground as turbines hit the end of their working lives.
The reinforced concrete base of a typical 2-3 MW wind turbine can weigh anywhere from 400 to 800 tonnes. But the concrete foundations of even bigger turbines (5 MW+) can exceed 1,000 tonnes. As lifespans end these massive concrete monoliths are abandoned where they lie. This is an issue of significant contention.
In many jurisdictions, including Australia and the US, decommissioning regulations only require the operator to ensure the concrete foundation stays at a depth of 1 meter (approx. 3.3 feet) below the surface.
The remaining 3-plus metres of these steel-reinforced concrete fossils are typically left in the ground indefinitely. Over the decades, they can interfere with deep-soil hydrology or remain as a permanent industrial remnant in rural landscapes.
Contracts usually say operators are responsible for decommissioning. But the financial reality is complex. Bank guarantees or bonds set aside for removal (around €50,000 or $100,000 per turbine) are frequently far too low. Real-world estimates for total removal and site restoration can exceed $200,000 to $400,000 per unit.
If the cost of total removal ($200k–$400k) exceeds the bond set aside by the operator ($50k–$100k), there is a strong financial incentive for companies to declare bankruptcy . Or they sell the asset to a shell company as the turbine nears its end-of-life, leaving a landowner with the bill.
While the steel towers are more easily recyclable, their triple fibreglass blades are notoriously difficult to process and often end up in turbines blade graveyards.
The theoretical benefits from renewable technology are meaningless compared with the staggering environmental costs.
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
Dr. Pierre Kory exposes a massive media anomaly. He reveals over 100,000 articles were published globally about Hantavirus in days.
He confirms this massive coordination is entirely unnatural.
Why is a minor outbreak suddenly consuming the global media cycle?
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
Jensen Huang just told the world something nobody wants to hear.
AI is not coming for your job.
It is coming for the part of your job you mistakenly believe IS your job.
Huang: “The purpose of your job and the tasks that you do in your job are related but not the same.”
That one sentence is the fault line between the people who thrive in the next decade and the people who vanish from it.
Huang used himself as proof.
Reduce the CEO of Nvidia to his raw outputs and his entire career is typing and talking.
Both have been automated to superhuman levels.
Huang: “Typing and talking have both been automated to a superhuman level by AI. And yet, I’m busier than ever.”
The man building the infrastructure that automates human labor has never worked harder.
That should stop you cold.
We look at a profession and see the tasks. The motions. The mechanical friction.
We never see the intent underneath.
And when AI arrives, we panic. Because we confuse the task with the job.
The task was never the job.
It was always the bottleneck between a human and their actual purpose.
Now the bottleneck is dissolving.
Years ago, the experts declared radiology dead. The algorithm could read a scan better than any human.
A generation of medical students listened. They walked away from the field.
The result was catastrophic.
Huang: “We need more radiologists than ever, and we don’t have enough.”
The algorithm did not replace the doctor. It armed the doctor.
Suddenly the department could see more patients. Catch more anomalies. Generate more revenue.
The hospital did not fire the radiologists. It tried to hire more.
And could not find them.
Because we terrified an entire generation out of a career with a prediction that landed exactly backwards.
Now the same hysteria is consuming software engineering.
The timeline is screaming that coding is dead.
Meanwhile, inside the very company building the hardware that automates code.
Huang: “The software engineers that know how to use AI, know how to work with agentic systems, are the most popular and the most successful.”
The tool did not replace the architect. It replaced the shovel.
This is the pattern nobody wants to confront.
AI does not eliminate the human. It eliminates the friction that made the human slow.
And when the friction disappears, demand for the human explodes.
But only if the human shows up.
The ones who defined themselves by the mechanical act of writing code are fading.
The ones who defined themselves by what the code was meant to build are now the most valuable people on the planet.
That is not a nuance. That is the entire dividing line.
The machine will write the script. Read the scan. Draft the brief.
It will never possess the reason any of it needed to exist.
The task was never the job.
And nobody who figures that out last gets the privilege of figuring it out twice.
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
This Iranian woman is going viral for setting the record straight on Iranians: “Iranians are not Muslim. We all hate Islam after 47 years of Islamic regime. Under Sharia… I would be killed for dressing like this. We’re peaceful people.”
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
just spent 2 weeks in china. went into it thinking we're cooked. came back more bullish on america than ever. here's why:
1. chinese citizens are way more chronically online. on the subway, train, anywhere, literally everyone is glued to their phone. gaming, short form, wechat. "don't walk and look at your phone, it's dangerous!" announcements flood crowded areas. their tiktok isn't any better, its still garbage, soft-core porn, etc.
2. everyone's using AI — deepseek, kimi, doubao. but nobody's afraid of losing their job to it. here it feels like there's an existential crisis every week. in china, nothing. i think the CCP won't let companies mass-layoff workers. great for short-term stability. terrible for long-term competitiveness on a global scale.
3. china doesn't produce weirdos. i sat in on a class at tsinghua (china's MIT). not one student spoke unless the professor read their name out loud. no questions. no debate. chinese education produces world-class executors, not contrarians. it does make it a safer place to live though.
4. china doesn't have christianity but it has something america doesn't have: a shared story everyone believes in. every person age 25-70 watched their country go from abject poverty to skyscrapers in one lifetime. that kind of collective proof has a deep unifying effect. compare that to how divided we are right now. america has a huge meaning vacuum that needs to be filled.
nevertheless, i return back to my home in america reinvigorated. because everything i saw confirms one thing: china optimizes. america innovates. and the innovators always win.
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Why don’t we here MSM interviewing people like this?
@XTexasGirlX@XtexasgirlX
🚨Ali Rezaei Majd from Iran has an important message to President Trump and all Americans! Listen up! 🔊👇🔊
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
An armada of at least 11 MR tankers carrying US diesel is now heading towards Africa, with volumes split between West Africa and the Durban storage hub in South Africa. Several vessels were diverted away from Europe toward Africa with abrupt deviation on their final leg of the trans-Atlantic voyage. underscoring how quickly trade flows are being redrawn.
With passage through the Strait of Hormuz still restricted, demand centres are scrambling to secure supply amid rising shortage risks. A similar pattern is emerging east of Suez, where cargoes originally bound for Europe from the Middle East are being redirected into Asia.
For traders, refiners and energy market participants, this is a clear example of why early insight into cargo diversions and shifting product flows can create a real commercial edge.
Energy Aspects Cargo Tracking helps clients spot dislocations sooner, monitor diesel balances in near real-time, and respond faster to changing market conditions. Learn more here: ow.ly/Oktv50YBihI
#EnergyAspects #CargoTracking #Hormuz
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
What we are seeing right now with a large element of Special Operations Forces pushing to the Middle East is not just routine military movement. It is a deliberate positioning of capability, and more importantly, decision making power, at the highest level.
The surge of at least 35 C-17 flights from key installations across the United States into Israel and Jordan strongly indicates the potential formation of a Special Operations Joint Task Force (SOJTF) or, if allied partners are involved, a Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force (CJSOTF).
That distinction matters, but the implication is the same. This is not a conventional buildup. This is the architecture required to execute decisive operations.
Special Operations Forces operate fundamentally differently than conventional military units. A traditional force buildup of brigades, divisions, armored units, signals preparation for large scale, sustained ground combat.
That is not what this is.
A SOJTF or CJSOTF is designed for precision, speed, and strategic impact. It brings together elite elements from across the services: Army Special Forces, Rangers, Navy SEALs, Air Force Special Tactics, under a unified command structure that can execute complex missions with minimal footprint but maximum effect.
These formations are built to dismantle networks, eliminate remaining high value targets, enable partner forces, and create cascading operational advantages without requiring a massive ground invasion.
The inclusion of the 82nd Airborne Division in this movement is also telling. The 82nd is not being positioned as the main effort, but rather as an uplift and contingency force.
Their role is to provide rapid reinforcement, secure key terrain, respond to escalation, and enable the freedom of maneuver for special operations elements. They are there to support and stabilize, not to lead a conventional campaign.
This combination gives the President something critically important: options.
A SOJTF or CJSOTF provides the ability to act quickly without committing to a large scale war, apply precise force where it matters most, scale operations up or down based on conditions, and achieve strategic objectives without the political and human cost of a full conventional deployment.
Most importantly, it creates a pathway to victory without a massive ground footprint.
Victory in this context does not mean occupying terrain with large formations. It means achieving decisive outcomes: neutralizing threats, collapsing hostile networks, and shaping the environment through targeted, intelligence driven operations.
That is exactly what Special Operations Forces are built to do.
If the objective is to finish the job, this is the most effective way to do it. A SOJTF or CJSOTF allows the United States to bring its most capable and adaptable forces to bear, while avoiding the risks and long term commitments associated with conventional boots on the ground warfare.
This is not escalation for its own sake. It is precision positioning for decisive action, and anyone saying any different is either doing so out of ignorance or because they want to use any force movement into the Middle East as a club against the President.
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
The denial is necessary for the deal to work. Iran needs to publicly deny while privately negotiating.
This is how every authoritarian regime exits a losing war. You never admit you’re talking until the deal is done, signed, and irreversible. Then you present it as a victory… “we forced the Americans to stop bombing,” “we extracted concessions,” “we negotiated from strength.” The denial is the face-saving mechanism that makes capitulation possible.
But.. what if Iran is telling the truth? What if there are no negotiations?
In that case, Trump just did something even more extraordinary and far more dangerous. He announced to the world that Iran is negotiating a “complete and total resolution” when Iran hasn’t agreed to any such thing. He suspended military strikes against power plants based on conversations that may not exist in the way he described. Why?
The trap.
If Trump publicly announces negotiations and suspends strikes, and Iran publicly denies it, Trump has created a binary for Iran..
Option A... Iran stays silent, lets the “negotiations” narrative stand, and uses the space to actually begin negotiating. The denial was just for domestic consumption. The back channel is real. The deal proceeds.
Option B... Iran aggressively denies it, doubles down on defiance, and continues attacking. In which case Trump says... I offered them peace. I paused our strikes in good faith. They responded with lies and more violence. Now I have the full moral authority to hit the power plants, hit Kharg Island, and escalate to whatever level I choose. The world watched me extend an olive branch and they slapped it away.
Either way, Trump wins. If Iran is quietly negotiating, he gets the deal. If Iran genuinely refuses, he gets the justification for the next phase of escalation with the entire world having watched him try diplomacy first.
There’s also a third possibility.
“Conversations” doesn’t necessarily mean direct US-Iran negotiations. Trump said “the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had… very good and productive conversations.” That language is deliberately ambiguous. The conversations could be happening through intermediaries… Oman, Qatar, the UAE, even China. Iran can truthfully say “we have not spoken to the Americans” while Omani diplomats are shuttling messages between Washington and whoever is actually running Iran right now.
This is exactly how the original Iran nuclear deal began. Back-channel negotiations through Oman that neither side acknowledged until the framework was already in place. Trump would know this history. He’d also know that the IRGC hardliners would never authorize direct talks. But they might authorize an Omani or Qatari intermediary to “explore possibilities” while maintaining public denial.
The word “conversations” is doing a lot of work in that post. It doesn’t say negotiations. It doesn’t say talks. It doesn’t say diplomacy. Conversations.
That could be as informal as a message passed through a third party. Iran can deny formal negotiations truthfully while conversations through intermediaries are absolutely happening.
If Iran’s denial is performative (for domestic consumption while talks continue), you’ll see… no major Iranian escalation in the next 48-72 hours. The Strait attacks slow down. The missile barrages against Israel and Gulf states decrease in frequency. Iran doesn’t hit another Gulf energy facility. The IRGC rhetoric stays hot but the operational tempo cools.
If Iran’s denial is genuine (no talks, no intermediaries, total rejection), you’ll see... an immediate escalation. Another Diego Garcia attempt. More strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. A major attack on a US base or vessel. The IRGC uses the “pause” in power plant strikes as a window to reconstitute and reposition.
The next 48 hours of Iranian behavior will tell you whether the denial is theater or truth. Watch what they do, not what they say. Trump is watching the same thing.
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Robin Schaefer retweetledi
Trump just waived the Jones Act for 60 days. That's the 1920 law requiring American-built, American-crewed ships for domestic port-to-port shipping.
The U.S. had the oil, had the refineries, but had an artificial bottleneck moving product between its own coasts. That bottleneck just disappeared. The entire global tanker fleet can now service American ports domestically.
China is burning 1.2B barrels of reserves trying to get sanctioned cargo through a war zone.
America just opened its own internal supply chain.
One country needs the Strait of Hormuz. The other one just proved it doesn't.
NERV2nd Branch@NERV2nd
@lamps_apple @drawandstrike And there it is!
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@CorbinSchuster Yep. I think 90% of Venezuelas oil went to China & 70% of Irans. (Or could be visa versa) was a very calculated move.
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@RobinMSchaefer Also explains why the US went after Venezuela first, to secure an oil supply in the event the Middle East is disrupted
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Normally when the price of oil goes up by $1 per barrel this equates to a $0.01 increase in our fuel price. In my mind these posts are starting to explain some of the reason our fuel prices have gone through the roof
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Wow!! That’s insane.
Peter Schweizer@peterschweizer
China has built a thousand-company industry flying women to the US to give birth — on purpose. Birthright citizenship, as it is currently constituted, creates a loophole that foreign governments are actively exploiting. @Eric_Eggers and I discuss my Senate Judiciary testimony on this week's episode of @TheDrillDown1. 👇MORE IN THREAD BELOW👇
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