Jason Morton

NEW: China is helping Iran reconstitute the Iranian missile program amid US-Israeli efforts to degrade it. Western media reported that China has sent multiple shipments of missile fuel precursor to Iran since the start of the war. (1/2) Iran has been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by the combined force, in some cases returning them to operation hours after strikes, according to recent US intelligence assessments. Iran may be reestablishing access to their launchers hours after strikes, but these launchers are components of a larger system that has been degraded. Reported fear and lack of coordination across some Iranian forces mean that medium-range missile systems are still functioning sub-optimally. Iran’s ballistic missile program is also a military organization that consists of both combat and support elements, and assessing the overall degradation of Iran’s ballistic missile program based on one element of the system—such as launcher availability—is impossible. The combined force has targeted both the combat and support elements, including extensive strikes on research facilities, development institutions, and industrial facilities. China’s efforts to help Iran reconstitute could undermine the combined force efforts to degrade or destroy the supporting elements of the ballistic missile program, however. The combined force targeted the Iran-Iraq border crossing in Shalamcheh, Khuzestan Province, for at least the second time since the war started as part of its ongoing efforts to target Iran’s repressive capabilities. The strikes come amid reports that Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fighters have deployed to Basij bases in Khuzestan Province via the Shalamcheh crossing. ISW-CTP previously assessed that the regime may be mobilizing PMF fighters, in part, to strengthen control over previous protest hotspots. The combined force also continued to target petrochemical facilities in Iran as part of its efforts to degrade Iran’s defense industrial base and, therefore, military reconstitution capabilities.

MORE: China is helping Iran reconstitute the Iranian missile program amid US-Israeli efforts to degrade it. The Telegraph reported that five shipments of likely sodium perchlorate, a key precursor for solid missile propellant, have arrived in Iran from China. All the vessels are owned by the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Line Group (IRISL), which the United States sanctioned in 2021. Four of the vessels are docked or floating near the port in Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, and one of the vessels is docked or near Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, according to Starboard Maritime Intelligence. China has previously supplied sodium perchlorate to support Iran’s ballistic missile program. The combined force has targeted several elements of the Iranian ballistic missile program, including missile fuel and solid propellant motor production sites. China’s efforts to help Iran reconstitute could undermine the combined force efforts to degrade or destroy the supporting elements of the ballistic missile program, however.