Rod Schulz

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Rod Schulz

Rod Schulz

@RodSR19

Software Dev, Creator, Investor/Trader, Wu Wei ☯︎

Nomad Katılım Ocak 2022
225 Takip Edilen341 Takipçiler
Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
@grant_melson These people are not worth it. In the end, reason will win. Told ya what her nickname should be
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Grant Melson, CFA
Grant Melson, CFA@grant_melson·
I seem to have upset you. I’d love to respond to your comments in my posts, but you have blocked me and now monopolize the conversation in my own posts since I cannot respond. This and other behavior is what has gotten myself and many others in the TSLA shareholder community suspicious and pushing back. If you and @TeslaBoomerMama would unblock me or others who are not calling you names or insulting you, but trying to debate/call out important points, it might help regain some trust and deescalate. Until then, I’m happy to respond and own any way that I have insulted you or others. Silencing and insulting dissent will not win. Discussion will. @_SFTahoe
Grant Melson, CFA tweet media
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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
@SelfMadeMastery Its not gonna happen anytime soon. Not in 2026. Not in 2027. Maybe 2028. People like Alexandra, Cern and Jo are delusional at this point.
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Kelly
Kelly@SelfMadeMastery·
Apart from the broader “holding company” concept, has Elon ever went directly on the record and confirmed that he was considering merging SpaceX with Tesla? I can’t find any direct quote confirming this, but everyone seems pretty sure this merger is going to happen.
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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
100%
Grant Melson, CFA@grant_melson

@LimitingThe 2-3 years should be enough for tesla to be ramping cybercab, robotaxi generally, and optimus. "Merger now!" For where we are right now in the product cycle would be heinous to TSLA investors. Merger cool to evaluate after float normalizes for SX and mid-point ramp for TSLA

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Reddit Lies
Reddit Lies@reddit_lies·
He'd immediately start sailing.
Reddit Lies tweet media
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Bradford Ferguson
Bradford Ferguson@bradsferguson·
The market is vastly undervaluing Tesla today. Piper Sandler just said the market is assigning zero value for Optimus. If $TSLA would greatly increase when Robotaxi scales, then it is assigning a low probability of success to Tesla Robotaxi. Lower than what’s reasonable. ➡️ the stock market is not efficient. It tends to reflect way too much cynicism and skepticism for high growth disruptors. Unless the market is assigning zero probability of success of SpaceXAI datacenters… I don’t favor SpaceX getting Optimus for free and Robotaxi at a discount.
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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
@grant_melson @TeslaBoomerMama Im down for elevated and respectful debates when thats the context of a post. But honestly I also like to have fun. Dont like treating X like linkedin. But hey, you do you. I’ll stop contaminating your posts with my crude childish humor.
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Grant Melson, CFA
Grant Melson, CFA@grant_melson·
@RodSR19 @TeslaBoomerMama Don’t need to do that. I want to be careful to keep the convo elevated. Otherwise it’s easier to give credence to their (false) claim that anyone who disagrees is just a bot
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Grant Melson, CFA
Grant Melson, CFA@grant_melson·
Perhaps it’s exhausting to debate an issue that is very important and defend one’s stance concretely. @TeslaBoomerMama claimed that Tesla retail did not pay for Tesla’s robotaxi, stating that anyone who is professional would know this isn’t how the stock market works. I refuted pointing out that shareholders own a company’s cashflows and assets and therefore sacrificed much near term upside for robotaxi. It is misleading to her large audience, many of the claims she is making. She has a responsibility to them to present the facts or at least hear debate and consider the facts. Many depend on the Tesla influencer crowd for their intake of information. When 95% of accounts over 50K followers (save rebellionaire) unanimously and suddenly shifted from being extremely bullish and near term on the prospects of Tesla, to comparing Tesla to Blockbuster and warning that Tesla would suffer permanent economic leakage to SpaceX if they did not merge in @CernBasher’s case. Many of us have had red flags triggered Not bots, but tsla investors with 10s of thousands of shares, X M&A lawyers, and members of the professional financial community.
Grant Melson, CFA tweet media
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Joel
Joel@growthrapidly·
I missed the +$4,100% run in $SNDK. I missed the +800% run in $MU. I'm not missing $HIMS this time.
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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
@grant_melson @TeslaBoomerMama Welcome to the club. Blocked me too simply for providing counterarguments. No insults, no hostility, nothing. Very similar to Omar, Alexandra seems to be another Elon cultist who can't tolerate dissenting opinions. Honestly, I'm happy she blocked me.
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Grant Melson, CFA
Grant Melson, CFA@grant_melson·
I would welcome you to debate any of the points that I brought in your comments @TeslaBoomerMama . There are many critical flaws in your arguments (such as claiming retail shareholders did not fund robotaxi R&D as shareholders..) that I countered in your comments. Which I think is what got me blocked. Happy to debate, I care too much for TSLA shareholders to let those slide unaddressed.
Grant Melson, CFA tweet media
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Grant Melson, CFA
Grant Melson, CFA@grant_melson·
I think we’re good with inviting a merger.. after our robotaxi catalyst is realized and valued by the market. Even inviting a merge offer now or soon is saying "our biggest catalyst as a company coming soon, but sure I'll consider selling now". If you were a business owner whose business was on the verge of a core business transformation. Margins are about to transform, revenue about to reawaken its growth; would you be going out and fielding offers to sell your business now? No. The same should be true for TSLA shareholders if they're serious about robotaxi soon moving TSLA from a low margin (~7-8K per car) one-time car sale model to a high margin annually recurring 30K+ profit per car.
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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
1) “in an IPO, where the company is selling shares on the open market, you get the real value of a company, or at least what the free market has determined” An IPO price is not true price discovery. SpaceX has never gone through years of public-market scrutiny, liquidity, macro cycles, and continuous repricing the way Tesla has. Merger ratios are NEGOTIATED, and the negotiation should reflect that uncertainty. 2) “Tesla has been self sufficient and cash flow positive… and have not needed you to fund anything” Tesla shareholders absolutely funded the company’s long term bets economically. Investors accepted years of premium valuation based on future autonomy, AI, Dojo, and Optimus potential instead of near term earnings extraction. 3) “If you sold your shares today it would not change a thing in Tesla’s business” Public equity still matters enormously. Tesla’s valuation affects compensation, borrowing capacity, strategic flexibility, and cost of capital. Secondary market investors are still part of the funding engine. 4) “SpaceX was worth less than Tesla a year ago because it was undervalued by not being public” Maybe, but SpaceX’s implied valuation TODAY is also difficult to justify conventionally. Tesla and SpaceX trade at radically different implied PS multiples, despite Tesla generating vastly larger current revenue and cash flow. That matters in merger negotiations. 5) “Tesla is not undervalued” Funny coming from bulls who have said the opposite FOR YEARS. Truth is that Tesla’s valuation already embeds enormous execution risk. Investors are paying today for uncertain future Robotaxi and AI outcomes. If those fail, Tesla reprices sharply lower. Therefore, shareholders are already underwriting substantial risk capital. 6) “Starship… creates a space economy… with a TAM in the trillions” Massive TAM narratives are not the same as realizable shareholder value. Starship may become transformational, but many of its largest economic outcomes remain highly speculative and likely much further out than Tesla autonomy commercialization. 7) “He needs to combine his companies to form a conglomerate” Conglomerates do not automatically deserve premium valuations. Combining EVs, AI, robotics, telecom, satellites, launch systems, and defense exposure into one entity could increase valuation uncertainty FOR YEARS, reduce investor clarity, and even introduce conglomerate discounts, antitrust scrutiny, and political risk.
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stonkdaddy
stonkdaddy@stonk_daddy·
Incredibly disingenuous framing of the situation, made to stoke the fears of ignorant investors. First of all, you don’t get to decide the ratio based on your imagination, the market will give Spacex a value, and has given Tesla a value. A merger ratio is fair based on what the market and millions of investors have determined, not you. Second, Spacex was worth less than Tesla a year ago because it was undervalued by not being public. Most of the liquidity events were tender offers where Spacex BOUGHT shares from employees. That is not the true value of the company. Now, in an IPO, where the company is selling shares on the open market, you get the real value of a company, or at least what the free market has determined. You cannot turn back time to when it was undervalued and say what Tesla’s ratio should be, that is fantasy land. Third, Tesla is not undervalued, and you did not fund robotaxi. Tesla trades at 300 PE, it is at its valuation today because of people banking on the robotaxi story, it is not some undiscovered gem. The last capital raise was years ago when the robotaxi idea did not even exist yet. Tesla has been self sufficient and cash flow positive since then and have not needed you to fund anything, if you sold your shares today it would not change a thing in Tesla’s business. Fourth and maybe most egregiously, this framing that if Tesla investors get 40% of the combined entity (we don’t know what it will be and these numbers are made up) that they will be diluted out of their earnings. As if the 60% of Spacex is just worthless filler. In reality the Starship program is as much if not an even much greater moon shot opportunity than robotaxi. A fully reusable rocket creates a space economy that we haven’t even imagined yet, with a TAM in the trillions. Tesla investors only get diluted if you are forced to be absorbed into some slow moving saturated molasses of a company, when in reality Spacex has just as much upside as Tesla. Brad says he is a Spacex investor, but clearly his Tesla position is far greater, and he has very little understanding of Spacex business and valuation. He is speaking out of greed, and preying on your fear. A merger is about combining Elon’s enterprises and cash flow engines to fuel the greatest technological breakthrough in human history - artificial intelligence. OpenAI is funded by its suppliers who will refuse to allow it to fail. Anthropic which is the first to have a breakthrough in generating value has ability to raise capital at will. Google has all of its core businesses funding its AI development. Similarly, for Elon to compete, he needs to combine his companies to form a conglomerate the same way as Google. That’s table stakes. Meanwhile you have tiny investors haggling over minor differences in merger ratios, when he’s trying to play the game of thrones. Missing the forest for the trees.
Rebellionaire@Rebellionaire

Tesla shareholders need to understand the ratio before a SpaceX merger ever gets serious. The vision is one thing. What percentage of the combined company you actually own is the part that shows up in your account. Bradford breaks down the math. 👇

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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
@SCHDaccumulator This is smart for those who want to have a happy and calm life. Im not one of those.
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SCHD Accumulator
SCHD Accumulator@SCHDaccumulator·
My portfolio is 100% ETFs It’s so nice not having to worry about individual stocks! 😌
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steve2bacon, CMT
steve2bacon, CMT@steve2bacon·
how do software investors normally deal with suicidal ideation? just asking for a friend, you guys don’t know him
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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
Alexandra saying Robotaxi is priced in, along with Jo and Cern is the most absurd thing ever. Wasnt on my bingo card.
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Rod Schulz
Rod Schulz@RodSR19·
If $MU hits 1k im out fully.
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